Football Stats Reference Guide Season 2012-2013

Aug 18th, 2012 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football

bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.

How often do football matches end without a goal? How often do home teams win? How often does the away club score first? With the 2012-2013 football season right upon us, today on the blog Andrew offers us some statistical breakdowns that might help you win at bet or at least an argument this football season.

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In my work for BettingExpert, I am often asked a range of statistical questions by readers and followers on Twitter. Questions such as how often a football match ends over 2.5 goals, how often a team wins after leading at halftime or how often do both teams score?

So in hope of answer many of these questions in one single blog post, I've decided to put together a range of statistical breakdowns across the 8 popular betting leagues of Europe over the last 5 seasons of play, from season 2007-2008 to the end of the 2011-2012 season.

While most of these statistical breakdowns are broad in nature and on their own won't give you much of an edge against the bookmakers odds, it's hoped that the numbers might inspire further analysis.

So with the new football season only hours away, let's get into it.

Home & Away Winning Percentages

Below are the winning percentages for home and away clubs over the last 5 seasons. The winning rates of home clubs varies from league to league, with the overall potential for the home club to come away with a victory about 1.65 times greater than their away opponents.

League	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Premier League	47.0%	26.2%	26.8%
The Championship	43.7%	28.7%	27.6%
Primera	49.8%	23.1%	27.1%
Serie A	47.6%	27.2%	25.2%
Bundesliga	45.5%	24.9%	29.6%
Ligue One	44.4%	29.6%	26.0%
Eredivisie	49.5%	22.6%	27.9%
SPL	42.6%	24.7%	32.7%
TOTAL	46.2%	26.2%	27.6%

Over & Under Goal Totals

The chart below shows the percentage of games that ended over 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals and 3.5 goals across the 8 leagues the last 5 seasons. We can see that both the Bundesliga and Eredivisie have seen the greater share of matches ending over 2.5 goals, with the 8 league total being just under 50% for matches ending Over 2.5 goals since 2007-2008.

League	Over 1.5 Goals	Over 2.5 Goals	Over 3.5 Goals
Premier League	75.6%	50.7%	28.3%
The Championship	73.8%	47.4%	26.0%
Primera	75.5%	52.0%	29.1%
Serie A	73.3%	46.6%	25.8%
Bundesliga	78.2%	55.4%	32.6%
Ligue One	70.4%	42.3%	21.6%
Eredivisie	80.6%	57.1%	38.3%
SPL	72.5%	47.7%	24.1%
TOTAL	74.8%	49.5%	27.9%

Scoring

The table below offers us a range of different scoring stats. We can see the percentage of matches that saw the home club score first, the away club score first and the percentage of matches that ended in a scoreless draw. We can also see the percentage of matches in which both clubs scored as well as the percentage of matches in which the home club failed to score as well as the percentage of matches in which the away team failed to score.

League	Home Scores 1st	Away Scores 1st	Scoreless Draw	Both Score	Home Scoreless	Away Scoreless
Premier League	54.3%	37.7%	8.0%	51.0%	22.2%	34.8%
The Championship	51.7%	40.2%	8.1%	52.6%	22.9%	32.5%
Primera	55.8%	37.1%	7.1%	51.3%	20.9%	35.0%
Serie A	54.2%	37.6%	8.2%	50.9%	22.2%	35.1%
Bundesliga	53.8%	39.8%	6.4%	55.1%	20.3%	31.0%
Ligue One	54.5%	35.0%	10.5%	48.3%	24.1%	38.1%
Eredivisie	54.8%	39.9%	5.3%	53.6%	19.8%	31.9%
SPL	51.7%	39.6%	8.7%	47.1%	27.6%	34.0%
TOTAL	53.8%	38.3%	7.9%	51.4%	22.4%	34.1%

Halftime-Fulltime

The table below shows the breakdown of halftime-fulltime results across the 8 leagues the last 5 seasons. It shows the percentage of matches that ended with each combination of result.

League	Home W-W	Home W-D	Home W-L	Home D-W	Home D-D	Away D-W	Away W-L	Away W-D	Away W-W
Premier League	29.3%	4.9%	1.8%	15.5%	16.2%	9.4%	2.2%	5.1%	15.7%
The Championship	25.5%	5.7%	1.8%	15.5%	17.4%	9.9%	2.7%	5.5%	15.9%
Primera	29.7%	4.3%	1.7%	17.1%	14.7%	10.1%	3.0%	4.0%	15.4%
Serie A	28.3%	5.6%	1.6%	16.6%	16.3%	11.0%	2.7%	5.4%	12.6%
Bundesliga	27.9%	5.2%	2.2%	15.6%	14.1%	10.7%	1.9%	5.6%	16.8%
Ligue One	26.6%	5.8%	1.9%	15.6%	19.4%	10.3%	2.2%	4.5%	13.8%
Eredivisie	31.9%	5.0%	2.1%	14.6%	13.0%	11.4%	3.0%	4.6%	14.5%
SPL	28.0%	5.0%	2.0%	13.2%	16.1%	13.1%	1.5%	3.7%	17.6%
TOTAL	28.2%	5.2%	1.9%	15.6%	16.1%	10.5%	2.4%	4.9%	15.2%

Winning Percentage When Home Team Leads At Halftime

Let's take our halftime-fulltime stats a little further. The chart below shows the winning percentages for both home and away teams when the home team was leading at halftime. As we can see, the chanes of an away club coming back to win when trailing at the half have been fairly slim.

League	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Premier League	81.3%	13.6%	5.1%
The Championship	77.2%	17.3%	5.5%
Primera	83.2%	12.1%	4.7%
Serie A	79.8%	15.7%	4.5%
Bundesliga	79.1%	14.6%	6.3%
Ligue One	77.6%	16.8%	5.6%
Eredivisie	81.8%	12.8%	5.4%
SPL	80.1%	14.2%	5.7%
TOTAL	79.9%	14.8%	5.3%

Winning Percentage When Match Is Drawn At Halftime

The table below shows the winning percentages for both home and away teams when the match is drawn at the half. Overall, the chances of the home team winning when the scores are tied at the half is about 1.50 times greater than for the away team.

League	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Premier League	37.7%	39.5%	22.8%
The Championship	36.1%	40.7%	23.2%
Primera	40.8%	35.2%	24.0%
Serie A	37.9%	37.1%	25.0%
Bundesliga	38.7%	34.9%	26.4%
Ligue One	34.5%	42.8%	22.7%
Eredivisie	37.3%	33.3%	29.4%
SPL	31.2%	37.9%	30.9%
TOTAL	36.9%	38.1%	25.0%

Winning Percentage When Away Team Leads At Halftime

We now take a look at the winning percentages of both home and away teams when the away team leads at the half. The chances of the home club coming back to win the match are slim, although over the last 5 seasons, it has been around twice as likely as an away club coming back when trailing at the half.

League	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Premier League	9.4%	22.1%	68.5%
The Championship	11.1%	23.0%	65.9%
Primera	13.2%	17.9%	68.9%
Serie A	13.0%	26.0%	61.0%
Bundesliga	7.8%	23.1%	69.1%
Ligue One	10.7%	21.7%	67.6%
Eredivisie	13.6%	20.7%	65.7%
SPL	6.5%	16.0%	77.5%
TOTAL	10.8%	21.6%	67.6%

Winning Percentage When Home Team Scores First

So let's take a look at the winning percentages for both home and away clubs when the home team scores first. We can see that the chanes of the away team winning when they surrender the first goal is slight. Of course, when that first goal is scored has a major impact on those chances.

League	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Premier League	74.8%	17.1%	8.1%
The Championship	71.6%	20.6%	7.8%
Primera	75.6%	16.4%	8.0%
Serie A	76.0%	17.1%	6.9%
Bundesliga	73.4%	17.0%	9.6%
Ligue One	72.5%	19.6%	7.9%
Eredivisie	74.9%	16.1%	9.0%
SPL	72.9%	17.1%	10.0%
TOTAL	73.9%	17.9%	8.2%

Winning Percentage When Away Team Scores First

Let's conclude by taking a look at the winning percentages of both home and away teams when the away team scores first. Again, while the chances of the home club winning after giving up the first goal, they are around twice as likely to do so compared to when the away club surrenders first.

League	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Premier League	16.8%	23.6%	59.6%
The Championship	16.5%	24.9%	58.6%
Primera	20.5%	18.2%	61.3%
Serie A	17.1%	25.9%	57.0%
Bundesliga	15.1%	23.3%	61.6%
Ligue One	13.9%	24.0%	62.1%
Eredivisie	21.2%	21.0%	57.8%
SPL	12.5%	17.8%	69.7%
TOTAL	16.8%	22.7%	60.5%

Final Thoughts

The statistical breakdowns offered in this article are indeed broad. Not every football match is alike in our expectation of results. For example, while the win rate is just under 75% for home clubs that score first in the Premier League, we should anticipate a marked difference in winning expectations for Chelsea scoring first at home to Wigan as opposed to Wigan scoring first at home to Chelsea. Similarily, at which time of the match the first goal is scored will impact such chances.

But it is hoped that the stats posted here inspire and provide a foundation to further analysis.

Or at the very least, help you win an argument and a free beer at the pub this season.