blog » Which Leagues Should You Bet On The Home Club

Which leagues should you bet on the home club?

Nov 25th, 2011 - Posted by Andrew in Football

BettingExpert Blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

Which leagues have been the best for home clubs over the last 5 seasons? What about away clubs or the draw? Which leagues have been good for short priced favourites or underdogs at home? Andrew breaks down the numbers for the last 5 seasons across 6 major leagues of Europe to find out.

Overall133

A common question I get in emails and recently on twitter is which leagues have shown better and worse results in win-draw-loss betting markets for home and away clubs when broken down by various odds ranges.

And so today I bring it to you. A lot of numbers. A lot of charts. And some meandering analysis that may state the obvious more often than not.

In this piece we will be looking at 6 leagues -

English Premier League
German Bundesliga
Spanish La Liga
Italian Serie A
French Ligue 1
Scottish Premier League

We will also be breaking match and results down into our familiar odds ranges -

When home club at odds of 1.25 or less
When home club at odds between 1.26 and 1.50
When home club at odds between 1.51 and 2.00
When home club at odds between 2.01 and 2.75
When home club at odds between 2.76 and 4.00
When home club at odds of 4.01 or greater

We will be assessing each outcome (home win, draw, away win) by betting at even stakes and seeing how profitable or unprofitable each has been since the start of the 2006-2007 season, up until today, with odds at standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% i.e 'even money at 1.91.

However you choose to make use of all the data in this article, I hope it helps you find a winner. Let's get into it.

When Home clubs start at odds 1.25 or less

Below we can see the results for each of our 6 leagues of study, when home clubs started the match at very short prices of 1.25 or less.

League	Matches	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %	Home % Return	Draw % Return	Away % Return
EPL	93	81	9	3	87.1%	9.7%	3.2%	1.52%	-37.3%	-40.9%
Bundesliga	23	19	4	0	82.6%	17.4%	0.0%	-3.45%	9.51%	-100%
La Liga	84	79	3	2	94.0%	3.6%	2.4%	7.11%	-73.80%	-38.16%
Serie A	31	25	6	0	80.7%	19.3%	0.0%	-5.79%	20.92%	-100.00%
Ligue 1	7	7	0	0	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.32%	-100.00%	-100.00%
SPL	69	60	7	2	87.0%	10.1%	2.9%	1.98%	-34.66%	-54.55%
TOTAL	307	271	29	7	88.3%	9.4%	2.3%	2.40%	-38.72%	-54.99%

The first thing we should notice is that home clubs at this sort of short price have been profitable with combined results across all 6 leagues, giving a profit at even stakes of over 2% the last 5 seasons.

The only league that saw home clubs in this situation run at an even stakes loss below standard bookmaker commission of 4.5%, was the Serie A. The Bundesliga was the only other league to have home clubs in this situation run at a loss, with both the Serie A and Bundesliga show handsome profits at even stakes for the draw when home clubs are this short in the win market.

Regardless of league, it's been very clear that over the last 5 seasons, away clubs coming up against such heavily fancied home clubs have been awful, with just 7 wins in total, giving an overall loss at even stakes of almost 55%.

When Home clubs start at odds between 1.26 and 1.50

Let's now move to matches where the home club started at odds between 1.26 and 1.50. Here we see a similar trend although not quite as striking.

League	Matches	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %	Home % Return	Draw % Return	Away % Return
EPL	227	164	51	12	72.3%	22.5%	5.2%	-4.51%	12.28%	-46.68%
Bundesliga	165	119	25	21	72.1%	15.2%	12.7%	-2.25%	-25.4%	22.94%
La Liga	151	114	22	15	75.5%	14.6%	9.9%	0.03%	-29.08%	1.24%
Serie A	213	154	42	17	72.3%	19.7%	8.0%	-3.79%	-2.74%	-21.46%
Ligue 1	133	95	27	11	71.4%	20.3%	8.3%	-3.02%	-3.98%	-16.37%
SPL	121	83	29	9	68.6%	24.0%	7.4%	-10.42%	-23.01%	-25.08%
TOTAL	1010	729	196	85	72.2%	19.4%	8.4%	-3.86%	-4.08%	-16.24%

We see that home clubs in this situation have overall performed slighty above standard bookmaker commission, at just under 4% since 2006. Only La Liga clubs made a slight even stakes profit, with SPL home clubs in this situation performing the worst of all leagues, giving a loss of almost 11%.

Although we see widely varied results for the draw, the overall results are just slightly above 4%. But again we see away clubs in this odds range performing overall significantly under market expectations, giving a loss of over 16% since 2006, with 4 leagues showing large losses.

When Home clubs start at odds between 1.51 and 2.00

As we move into a range where home clubs begin to approach even money, we see the draw become the market to bet against. Overall combined results for the draw across all 6 leagues the last 5 seasons, has given a loss of over 9%.

League	Matches	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %	Home % Return	Draw % Return	Away % Return
EPL	450	271	111	68	60.2%	24.7%	15.1%	1.58%	-10.98%	-20.94%
Bundesliga	431	229	111	91	53.1%	25.8%	21.1%	-11.93%	-5.11%	12.00%
La Liga	498	295	112	91	59.2%	22.5%	18.3%	0.05%	-17.76%	1.80%
Serie A	539	327	135	77	60.7%	25.1%	14.2%	1.44%	-13.54%	-18.21%
Ligue 1	556	282	171	103	50.7%	30.8%	18.5%	-13.95%	5.31%	2.93%
SPL	219	119	46	54	54.3%	21.0%	24.7%	-7.09%	-26.76%	23.79%
TOTAL	2693	1523	686	484	56.5%	25.5%	18%	-4.80%	-9.73%	-2.35%

5 of the 6 leagues saw losses in the draw market since 2006 over standard bookmaker commission, with 4 of those leagues significantly over. It's the results in Ligue 1 which saw the draw give an even stakes profit of over 5% that make the overall draw result of 9% somewhat respectable.

When Home clubs start at odds between 2.01 and 2.75

So now let's head into the territory where home clubs and away clubs are approaching equal value. In this range we see a shift back towards away clubs being poor value, with the combined results of away clubs giving a loss of over 10% at even stakes since 2006.

League	Matches	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %	Home % Return	Draw % Return	Away % Return
EPL	701	309	208	184	44.1%	29.7%	26.2%	-1.52%	-3.17%	-13.45%
Bundesliga	608	265	145	198	43.6%	23.9%	32.5%	-2.50%	-20.46%	5.97%
La Liga	828	384	233	211	46.4%	28.1%	25.5%	2.60%	-8.15%	-14.27%
Serie A	705	322	213	170	45.7%	30.2%	24.1%	2.28%	-8.48%	-13.64%
Ligue 1	923	401	309	213	43.4%	33.5%	23.1%	-3.52%	1.80%	-17.92%
SPL	475	198	130	147	41.7%	27.4%	30.9%	-6.54%	-10.44%	-1.10%
TOTAL	4240	1879	1238	1123	44.3%	29.2%	26.5%	-1.22%	-7.24%	-10.45%

4 of leagues showed significant losses for away clubs with the Bundesliga being the odd one out, giving an overall profit for away clubs in this range of almost 6% at even stakes.

When we consider home form here, we see all leagues except for the SPL giving above standard bookmaker commission results, with both La Liga and Serie A post profits above 2%.

When Home clubs start at odds between 2.76 and 4.00

The first thing we notice here is that it is easily our most consistent range, with each market giving a loss of just over 5% the last 5 seasons. But we do see wild fluctuations from league to league.

League	Matches	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %	Home % Return	Draw % Return	Away % Return
EPL	242	75	79	88	31.0%	32.6%	36.4%	-3.23%	7.21%	-14.60%
Bundesliga	267	76	78	113	28.5%	29.2%	42.3%	-10.22%	-1.94%	-3.66%
La Liga	269	86	63	120	32.0%	23.4%	44.6%	-0.28%	-22.86%	4.35%
Serie A	289	92	87	110	31.8%	30.1%	38.1%	-1.24%	-11.38%	-5.11%
Ligue 1	294	94	93	107	32.0%	31.6%	36.4%	-3.25%	-3.32%	-10.22%
SPL	149	40	48	61	26.8%	32.3%	40.9%	-19.74%	5.50%	-1.81%
TOTAL	1510	463	448	599	30.7%	29.7%	39.6%	-5.09%	-5.54%	-5.35%

Despite 4 leagues being above standard bookmaker commission for the home club win market, no league posted an overall profit, with only the SPL and Bundesliga showing significant losses.

4 leagues posted results above standard bookmaker commission in the draw market for this range, with 2 leagues, the EPL and SPL showing significant profits.

When Home clubs start at odds between 4.01 and above

Finally, let's look at when home clubs are big underdogs, off odds greater than 4.00.

League	Matches	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %	Home % Return	Draw % Return	Away % Return
EPL	306	55	72	179	18.0%	23.5%	58.5%	5.91%	-11.26%	-7.23%
Bundesliga	152	37	41	74	24.3%	27.0%	48.7%	28.46%	1.72%	-15.18%
La Liga	189	28	45	116	14.8%	23.8%	61.4%	-19.76%	5.85%	-5.04%
Serie A	231	38	66	127	16.4%	28.6%	55.0%	-17.44%	-6.77%	-2.47%
Ligue 1	127	30	22	75	23.6%	17.3%	59.1%	15.22%	-40.25%	9.72%
SPL	195	29	37	129	14.9%	19.0%	66.1%	-1.81%	-24.50%	0.06%
TOTAL	1200	217	283	700	18.1%	23.6%	58.3%	-0.04%	-11.28%	-4.00%

Here we see the draw once again, perform below market expectations, with a loss here of over 11%. Other than that, it's a bit of a mess, with result fluctuating greatly form league to league.

For a league with a tradition of low scoring, Ligue 1 gave a profitability in this odds range for the draw at a loss of just over 40%, while the Bundesliga was very kind to home clubs of such inviting odds, giving an even stake profit of greater than 28% since 2006.

Home-Draw-Away

So let's look at some of the numbers and see what we find.

- Home clubs performed under standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% in just two odds ranges, those being home clubs starting between 1.51 and 2.00 and home clubs starting between 2.76 and 4.00, and even then is was only a minimal deficit of -4.80% and -5.09%.

- The Draw performed above standard bookmaker commission in just one odds range, when home clubs start between 1.26 and 1.50 and even then it was a minimal success at just -4.08%.

- Away clubs have been a bit all over the place. But the one clear trend was against away clubs when playing against home clubs prices anywhere from a 1.50 or less over the last 5 seasons.

Overall League results since 2006

So let's concluded by looking at how each league has performed since 2006.

League	Matches	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %	Home % Return	Draw % Return	Away % Return
EPL	2019	955	530	534	47.3%	26.2%	24.5%	-0.11%	-4.72%	-19.23%
Bundesliga	1646	745	404	497	45.3%	24.5%	30.2%	-3.35%	-11.47%	4.25%
La Liga	2019	986	478	555	48.8%	23.7%	27.5%	-0.43%	-15.47%	-6.79%
Serie A	2008	958	549	501	47.7%	27.3%	25.0%	-1.51%	-9.00%	-14.51%
Ligue 1	2040	909	622	509	44.6%	30.5%	24.9%	-5.05%	-1.32%	-9.59%
SPL	1228	529	297	402	43.1%	24.2%	32.7%	-7.39%	-11.71%	-1.93%
TOTAL	10960	5082	2880	2998	46.4%	26.3%	27.4%	-2.65%	-8.65%	-8.83%