10 things we learned from the Cheltenham Showcase October meeting

The rain finally arrived and the opening Showcase Cheltenham meeting of the season really did feel like the jumps were back with the small fields of the summer quickly a distant memory as the big yards emerged from a long hibernation. Friday began with good fast ground forecast, but the rain duly arrived and things were pretty testing by the time the runners went to post in the last novice hurdle.

There were typically plenty of talking points to emerge from the two day meeting, and here at bettingexpert we have put together a review and some horses who are worth following in the months ahead (all the way perhaps to the Festival in March).

In this article:

1. Several of the top yards are behind where they would usually be in terms of fitness
2. Pied Piper lays down a Champion Hurdle marker
3. Editeur du Gite enters every notebook in the land
4. Irish dominance continues – 7 winners from 14 races over the two days
5. Dads Lad one for the Grand Annual
6. Brian Hayes a talented jockey to keep an eye on
7. Shoot First lands another almighty plunge in the Pertemps qualifier
8. Music Drive one to keep an eye on when going handicapping
9. Jimmy the Digger a stayer well worth following
10. Mofasa continues the surge in fortunes of Michael Scudamore

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#1: Several of the top yards are behind where they would usually be in terms of fitness

There is no doubt that the prolonged spell of dry weather has had a big impact on all NH yards in both Britain and Ireland, with plenty struggling to get runners working on the grass at home and suffering in terms of fitness as a result.

Trainers like Dan Skelton and Nigel Twiston-Davies have both really struggled for winners, and are operating well below their normal strike rate for the time of year (with well fancied runners like Doctor Parnassus and The Hollow Ginge both very disappointing over the two days).

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#2: Pied Piper lays down a Champion Hurdle marker

Gordon Elliott’s classy performer was one of the best backed horses of the two days, and did not let backers down with a very smooth performance to see off old rival Knight Salute. He is a smooth traveler with a turn of foot, and is expertly ridden by Jack Kennedy.

But whether a quote of 14/1 for the Champion Hurdle represents any value has to be very doubtful. He is likely to be up against both defending champion Honeysuckle and the progressive Constitution Hill, so if they both turn up fit and well on the day it is hard to see Pied Piper posing a serious threat.

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#3: Editeur du Gite enters every notebook in the land

The market is often a fantastic guide to fitness and intention for horses having their first run of the season, and that was certainly the case with Gary Moore’s 8-y-o ahead of a hot handicap on Saturday.

He had been a solid 3/1 chance in the morning, over a course and distance where he has a terrific record (with punters presumably expecting another bold run from the front from this superb jumper). However, he proved extremely weak on the exchanges, touching 8/1, and was then given a very
quiet and considerate ride from well off the pace. The run was clearly needed, and better will be expected around this track perhaps at the November meeting, but he is unlikely to be missed by the market having caught the eye so blatantly here.

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#4: Irish dominance continues – 7 winners from 14 races over the two days

It was a familiar tale at Cheltenham as the Irish trainers completely dominated proceedings, with five winners across the board on Saturday and seven in total over both days (despite being completely outnumbered in terms of entries).

Paul Nicholls managed just one winner, while Henderson, Skelton and Twiston-Davies all drew a blank from just a handful of runners. This trend has been noticeable for several years now, and there is no doubt that the bulk of the quality now resides over the water (and is largely concentrated in the hands of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott).

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#5: Dads Lad one for the Grand Annual

Willie Mullins scored with his only runner of the day when Dads Lad took the valuable 2m Saturday handicap, and the manner in which he travelled on the bridle strongly suggested he is one to follow up the grades this winter.

He has now won 3 of his 4 starts over fences, remains open to loads of improvement aged 7, and is being aimed at the Grand Annual in March where he would probably creep in at the bottom of the weights granted further progress over the next few months.

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#6: Brian Hayes a talented jockey to keep an eye on

Jockey Brian Hayes is hardly in the first flush of youth, with 1261 rides and 110 winners over the last five years, but he has started to attract the attention of some of the bigger yards in Ireland and is very much one to keep on side of.

He rode a perfectly judged patient race on board Dads Lad to gain one of the highest profile wins of his career, and his judgment of pace is sure to be a huge asset when coming back over to Cheltenham in November, December and March.

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#7: Shoot First lands another almighty plunge in the Pertemps qualifier

Charles Byrnes has a well deserved reputation for landing hefty gambles on both sides of the water, and the cash was certainly down on his unexposed Shoot First in the Pertemps qualifier on Saturday.

The 6-y-o had been 7/1 across the board in the morning, but had been hammered down to 9/4f by the off and gamely saw things out under a positive ride from Phillip Byrnes (son of the trainer and clearly not fazed by having his first ride at Cheltenham). As usual with these unique contests, very few of the unfancied outsiders ever landed a blow, but he remains a young hurdler to follow after just seven runs over timber (and still looking green in front when asserting before the final climb).

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#8: Music Drive one to keep an eye on when going handicapping

One Irish bullet that missed the bookmakers was Gordon Elliott’s Music Drive on Friday in a competitive novice hurdle over 2m3f, but the backers who forced him down to 6/4f are likely to get those losses back sooner rather than later.

He got a rather over-confident ride from Davy Russell, cruising round on the bridle but rather tapped turning for home and a mistake at the last stopping his momentum. There was plenty left in the tank at the line, and there will be plenty more to come from him as his stamina is drawn out over the next few months (with a switch to handicaps on the cards for these very shrewd connections).

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#9: Jimmy the Digger a stayer well worth following

Henry Daly has hardly had a runner for the last five months, with his horses unable to get on the grass gallops and the trainer wisely waiting for the ground to ease (and his potentially top class Hillcrest sadly ruled out for the whole season after an injury at home).

However, his progressive stayer was clearly straight enough after 6 months off for his return on Friday, and he showed terrific stamina reserves to swoop late in the 3m1f amateur riders handicap. There will be more to come after 7 runs over fences, and his attitude for pressure is sure to be a major asset as he rises up the weights.

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#10: Mofasa continues the surge in fortunes of Michael Scudamore

One yard that has been red hot since the “season proper” got underway is Michael Scudamore, and he tasted Cheltenham success with his exciting Mofasa on Friday.

The 6-y-o had impressed when making a winning hurdling debut at Uttoxeter in October, and improved on that form under a strong ride from Luca Morgan. He will be a cracking three mile chaser in time, but is very much one to follow over the next few months, with the raw edges in his jumping sure to be ironed out and stamina very much his strong suit going forwards.

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