Melbourne Cup Tips & Betting Guide 2020
Who will win the Melbourne Cup? Racing fans both in Australia and across the world eagerly look forward to one of the biggest racing events each year and to Melbourne Cup tips. This year’s Melbourne Cup will be raced on November 3rd. If you’re looking for Melbourne Cup tips, analysis and predictions, bettingexpert’s racing expert Stephen Harris delivers his Melbourne Cup best bets.
Melbourne Cup Tips: Who Will Win the Melbourne Cup?
If this is your first Melbourne Cup, you’ll find everything you do need to bet on the Melbourne Cup 2020 in the bettingexpert Melbourne Cup betting guide. Our racing expert Stephen Harris shares his two best Melbourne Cup tips, his best bet and his best value bet.
What is the Melbourne Cup?
The Melbourne Cup is Australia’s premiere horse race and is the showpiece event of the annual Spring Racing Carnival held at Melbourne’s Flemington racecourse. While a long time Australian cultural event (often referred to as the ‘Race that stops a nation’) with much of the state of Victoria enjoying a public holiday on the day of the race, the race has grown in international popularity in recent years with an increasing number of foreign horses entering the field.
The Melbourne Cup was first run in 1861 with the inaugural winner Archer backing up and winning again in 1862. The 2020 Melbourne Cup running will be the 160th running of the race featuring an always competitive field. Last year’s winner Vow and Declare returns looking to be the first to win back to back Cups since Makybe Diva’s threepeat in 2003, 2004 and 2005.
When is the Melbourne Cup?
The Melbourne Cup is traditionally run on the first Tuesday in November.
This year the race will be held at 3pm AEDT on November 3rd. (4am November 3rd UK time)
The Melbourne Cup is raced on the 3200 metre course at Flemington Racecourse located in the inner west Melbourne suburb of Flemington.
Melbourne Cup Tips, November 3rd 2020
Our racing expert Stephen Harris has posted his best Melbourne Cup tips. In what looks to be a wide open race, Stephen believe the best bet for the Melbourne Cup is the current favourite, Russian Camelot while his best of the rest is Surprise Baby. Read Stephen’s Melbourne Cup tips preview below.
|Best Bet||Russian Camelot||8.0|
|Value Bet||Surprise Baby||9.0|
Odds as at 1pm October 5th 2020. Odds may now differ
Melbourne Cup Tips – Best Bet
Danny O’Brien’s progressive performer is completely unexposed granted a stiff test of stamina, and created a deep impression when winning a valuable Group 2 at Caulfield at the end of September (heavily backed odds-on favourite). He remains with plenty of potential, with just a handful of runs under his belt, and has been supported by some very warm faces in the lead up to this race..
Melbourne Cup Tips – Value Bet
Paul Preusker’s 6-y-o has plenty of experience in the book and goes especially well at Flemington, and his battle hardened nature should count for plenty when the chips are down up the straight. He returned to his very best form when just touched off at Moonee Valley in September, and this marathon two mile trip holds no terrors at all.
Melbourne Cup Offers & Promotions
Given the level of interest among both serious and casual punters, it’s no surprise to see bookmakers across Australia delivering a great menu of Melbourne Cup offers and promotions.
To make the most of your Melbourne Cup betting, keep your eyes out for Melbourne Cup offers such as enhanced odds and bonus bet offers in the lead up to the race. Taking advantage of these Melbourne Cup offers can improve your betting returns, not just for the race but for the entire day’s racing.
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How To Bet On The Melbourne Cup
The Melbourne Cup is one of the biggest racing events in the world. If this is your first Melbourne Cup, you may be interested to learn the keys for betting on the Melbourne Cup. Our racing expert Stephen Harris shares his five keys and considerations for deciding on your own Melbourne Cup tips.
1. Proven Stamina
The unique demands of this two mile contest always means that stamina is at a premium, with a brutal gallop assured from the stalls and only those who truly stay coming to the fore in the closing stages. Punters should search for a horse who has shown he can stay two miles or further in previous races, as well as being able to handle the rough and tumble of a big field handicap.
Many European horses are unsuited to the demands of this race, with their experience often gleaned in small field Group or Listed races (where the temp tends to be a lot slower in the early stages and trouble in running rarely a factor). Previous Melbourne Cup form can also be handy, and it is always worth watching back the last few runnings of the race to look for clues away from the obvious.
2. Effect of the Draw
The draw for staying races is rarely a huge factor, but in this big field getting a good early pitch near the rail can be an advantage. Those drawn widest of all have a very difficult choice to make, either be rushed up ten wide to try and get handy, or drop in off the pace and ride for luck from rear.
Statistically stall 18 has yet to produce a winner of the race in its 160 year history, though stalls 10, 11 and 14 have all produced five winners each. Ideally your selection should be drawn low, especially if he is expected to be ridden positively.
3. Race Experience
Experience can count for plenty in the Melbourne Cup, with top local riders in particular boasting far more track knowledge than their European or American counterparts. The best Australian riders like Hugh Bowman, Kerrin McEvoy, James McDonald and Damien Oliver are sure to be in high demand, and who is booked to ride what always has an immediate impact on the ante-post betting market in the lead up to the race.
In 2015 Michelle Payne made history when becoming the first female jockey to lift the prize, though punters were hardly cheering too loudly as she came home on the 100/1 outsider Prince of Penzance.
4. Prepared Horses
Generally speaking it is best to focus in on horses who have been specifically targeted at this prize throughout their whole season, rather than a handicapper who has shown his hand and been on the go every week for months in the run up to November 3rd.
Ideally a couple of recent runs as preparation for the big day would be the optimum, perhaps having been ridden with patience and finishing out of the money (so avoiding an increased handicap mark that could dent your chances of collecting in this tightest of contests).
5. Bookmaker Offers
As with all the major races, bookmakers fall over themselves to attract business and this can mean some terrific value on offer for the punter.
It is always worth shopping around, taking the best price on offer for your selection, and perhaps play each-way with layers offering enhanced place terms (several firms may offer up to 6 places on the day with a maximum field assured) or cash back offers.
Melbourne Cup UK Horses
Each Melbourne Cup sees a large number of foreign (non Australian and New Zealand) horses. Which of the UK entrants have the best chance of winning the Melbourne Cup this year? Our racing expert Stephen Harris takes a look at the chances of the UK horses running in this year’s Melbourne Cup.
|Dashing Willoughby||A Balding||26.0|
|Anthony Van Dyck||A O’Brien||21.0|
Odds as at 1pm October 5th 2020. Odds may now differ
Aidan O’Brien’s progressive stayer has thrived on a busy campaign since racing resumed, showing a tenacious attitude to land the Irish Derby at the Curragh in June and then far from disgraced at Goodwood or Doncaster.
He is a proven stayer with a turn of foot at the busisness end, and seems sure to run well if enjoying any luck in running under the usual hold-up ride.
Andrew Balding has enjoyed a terrific season in the UK, and this consistent stayer is just the sort of tough and reliable type who will relish the hustle and bustle of a big field Melbourne Cup.
He impressed when winning at Newmarket and Sandown this summer, and was far from disgraced in Group 2 compnay at York in August.
Anthony Van Dyck
The 2019 Epsom Derby winner had been extremely expensive to follow since his day in the sun, losing his next seven starts until bouncing right back to form at Longchamp in September.
He has never raced beyoind 1m4f before, so the step up to two miles is a real leap into the unknown if connections are brave enough to send him over.
Melbourne Cup Odds
The Melbourne Cup is one of the world’s richest horse races with bookmakers across the planet offering a deep menu of odds and markets. Melbourne Cup odds are typically posted months in advance of the race with many astute punters looking to get ahead of the market and invest their money early.
For most however, the Melbourne Cup is one of the few times a year that they will place a bet. Regardless of your level of involvement betting on Melbourne Cup odds are a great way to increase the excitement of the day. Whether it’s placing a win only bet, betting each way on a Melbourne Cup favourite or backing a trifecta, there’s many ways to bet on Melbourne Cup odds.
History of the Melbourne Cup
The race that literally “stops a nation” has a deep rooted place in the Australian psyche and is a collosal betting race that attracts the attention of all racing fans from around the world. Unusually for a race of this status, it is run as a handicap, and this adds a great deal of competitiveness as runners from all over the racing world come over to try and land the valuable and prestigious prize (that has a 160 year history).
Even with the coronavirus, international runners are expected again in 2020, with Aidan O’Brien in particular likely to represented by a few of his top class performers. In 2019 Danny O’Brien’s star Vow and Declare ran out a thrilling winner, but he will struggle to follow up in 2020 with the handicapper allotting him 57kg to carry (5kg more than 2019 making his task a great deal harder).
Vow and Declare wins the 2019 Melbourne Cup
There have been some memorable winners over the years, with Rekindling (2017) for Joseph O’Brien and Cross Counter (2018) for Charlie Appleby, showing that the European trainers are well capable of upsetting the applecart. Older punters can recall the memorable hat-trick in the race of local superstar Makybe Diva (ridden to perfection by Glen Boss), who performed the incredible feat of defying the handicapper in three consecutive Melbourne Cups (2003, 2004, 2005).
Recent Winners of the Melbourne Cup
|2019||Vow and Declare||C Williams||D O’Brien|
|2018||Cross Counter||K McEvoy||C Appleby|
|2017||Rekindling||C Brown||J O’Brien|
|2016||Almandin||K McEvoy||R Hickmott|
|2015||Prince of Penzance||M Payne||D Weir|
|2014||Protectionist||R Moore||A Wohler|
|2013||Fiorente||D Oliver||G Waterhouse|
|2012||Green Moon||B Prebble||R Hickmott|
|2011||Dunaden||C Lemaire||M Delzangles|
|2010||Americain||G Mosse||A de Royer Dupre|