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UFC 250: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer | UFC Prediction & Betting Tips
UFC 250: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer | UFC Prediction & Betting Tips
On the 7th of June 2020, UFC 250 headlined by female “GOAT” Amanda Nunes makes her first UFC appearance in 2020, and has not fought since December of last year when she fought and beat Germaine de Randamie. In her UFC return, Nunes is facing grappling phenom Felicia Spencer. Will Spencer pose a threat to “The Lioness” and what can we expect from Nunes? Let’s dig into the stats and predict the winner of this fight.
Fight Prediction
On the feet, Spencer doesn’t pose a threat to Amanda Nunes. Amanda has the power and overall skill advantage to seriously hurt Spencer if the fight stays standing. However, Spencer has a chin unlike any other, and can take bombs from the hardest hitting women on the planet and still keep going. She went the distance with Cris Cyborg and shrugged off Cyborg’s vicious bombardment for three rounds straight. She can take a punch. Her cardio could serve her well too, as this is a five round fight. But, we can’t ignore the fact that Nunes is the level of striker that she is.
Against Cyborg, Spencer just looked completely hopeless expect for an elbow that landed early, cutting Cyborg’s face up. Nunes has also gone five rounds a couple of times in her career, and she has fought higher levels of competition: Shevchenko, De Randamie, Cris Cyborg, Holly Holm, Rousey, Tate, Pennington. The list is endless. Nunes is in her prime, and her most recent opponent might’ve been the last contender in the division that actually poses a threat for her. Spencer doesn’t have striking power, unless she’s on top of you and hitting you with ground and pound. Nunes has been taken down twice in five years, that’s ten fights!
Nunes has shown that she can pace herself and has that aforementioned strategic approach to her fights. Both fighters are pretty tough though, and we will likely see this one going the distance.
Let’s rule out right now that Spencer is winning via decision. She does not have the takedown average or the level of striking to consistently outpoint Amanda Nunes throughout five rounds. If Valentina Shevchenko can’t do that then Spencer can’t either. She does, however, have a chance of catching Nunes in a submission. Nunes can get a little overconfident when she fights, and could shoot for a takedown and get caught in a guillotine choke, or something like that. Spencer can’t really KO Nunes either, unless it is with a ground and pound. However, imagining a scenario where Nunes ends up in a submission is much more likely than her getting finished.
Nunes can win via KO or via decision. Both could very well happen. The glaring advantages that she has on the feet are also going to serve her well. We don’t see any scenario where Nunes doesn’t shrug off the takedown attempts from Spencer and pick her apart on the feet.
Prediction: Amanda Nunes def. Felicia Spencer via unanimous decision.
Betting Tips
- The fight goes the distance
Both fighters are super tough, but Amanda Nunes will dictate the dance here, which means that everything is up to Spencer’s ability to survive. We know her chin is superhuman, so betting this fight to go the distance is pretty much the same as questioning if she survive on the feet with Nunes.
- Felicia Spencer wins via submission
A fun bet with high risk, but still quite valued. Odds for Nunes are so low that the value is in a prob bet. However, chances of this fight hitting the ground are perhaps not as low as one might think. Nunes could very well decide to take this fight to the ground to conserve some energy in the later rounds, and that’s where Spencer’s grappling could come in. Also, if Nunes thinks that she can get Spencer out of there early she could end up gassing herself out. We saw the draining effects of Spencer’s high-pace clinch work against Cyborg, in a three round fight. Things could get interesting if she could wear Nunes out with some rounds left to go. However, her only path to victory is via submission here. Nunes is too experienced on the ground curl up and get TKO’ed.
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Fight Statistics
Let’s have a look at some stats for this UFC bout.
Amanda Nunes
Nunes is primarily known for her heavy hands which have earned her thirteen total knockout wins, (seven in the UFC). Every minute, Nunes lands 4.34 significant strikes and absorbs 2.63. She defends herself against 55% of punches from her opponents and she lands 50% of punches she throws. On the ground, Nunes is no slouch either. She has a black-belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a brown-belt in judo. She manages 2.33 takedowns every fifteen minutes and has a takedown defence of 80%. Nunes has landed 47% of takedowns that she has attempted and has a submission rate of 0.7.
What makes Nunes so great is the fact that she can fight really well on the ground and on the feet. On top of everything, she has the ability to do serious damage both places. She can knock her opponents out and she can submit or out-wrestle her opponents to get the win. Just in her last fight, against De Randamie, we saw how Nunes used her well-roundedness to create a path to victory. Nunes found herself in a little bit of trouble on the feet against De Randamie, an undefeated kick-boxing champion. We saw Amanda abandon the striking and take the fight to the ground at will – a great showcase of strategic and calculated gameplanning. That sort of mindset is rare with fighters, and if you ask us here at bettingexpert, strategically smart fighters are the best fighters.
Amanda Nunes has an average fighting time of 8:36 and fights in orthodox.
Felicia Spencer
Felicia “Feenom” Spencer is a grappling expert in the UFC women’s bantamweight division. Spencer is a decent striker as well and lands 4.54 significant strikes while absorbing 6.27 every minute. Her striking accuracy is 55% her striking defence is 44%.
On the ground is where Spencer really poses a threat. She has a takedown average of 1.36 every fifteen minutes and her accuracy is 16%. She also has a submission average of 0.7. While her numbers might not look like much, Spencer is very dangerous on the mat. All she needs is one takedown and the fight can be her’s. She has four submission wins on her professional resume, one of those coming in the UFC against Megan Anderson.
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