Developing A Predictive Betting Model
Building a sports betting model can be difficult work. We won't lie to you. It can mean long hours of tediously entering data, sorting spreadsheets, setting up databases, testing, re-testing and re-re-testing.
All this, with no promise that you will eventually 'crack the code'.
Would you expect anything different? Bookmakers have the sharpest minds working for them day in day out, using everything at their disposal in order to compose the odds that millions of people are trying to beat. You think you're going to come up with a system to beat them in a couple of afternoons of analysis? It's not going to happen. It takes times and dedication, a sharp mind and persistence. But then, half the thrill is in the chase.
More often than not, the end product is worth the time and effort, even if it's just for the many lessons you will learn along the way, both practical and theoretical. But we can tell you, while no model you build will be light work, the first model is always the hardest.
How To Build A Sports Betting Model
Where do you start when building a sports betting model? What are the key elements to developing a profitable betting model? In this article we discuss the basic to consider when starting to develop a sports betting model.
If you want to build a sports betting model, this is what you need to learn:
If you're serious in your ambition to build a sports betting model, just know this, it can be difficult work. We won't lie to you. It can mean long hours of tediously entering data, sorting spreadsheets, setting up databases, testing, re-testing and re-re-testing.
All this, with no promise that you will eventually 'crack the code'.
Would you expect anything different? Bookmakers have the sharpest minds working for them day in day out, using everything at their disposal creating betting algorithms to set the odds that millions of people are trying to beat. You think you're going to come up with a sports betting model, cunning enough to beat them in a couple of afternoons of analysis? It's not going to happen. It takes time and dedication, a sharp mind and persistence. But then, half the thrill is in the chase.
More often than not, the end product is worth the time and effort, even if it's just for the many lessons you will learn along the way, both practical and theoretical.
We know successful bettors who have built a number of statistical betting models over the years, developing everything from a football betting model to a basketball betting model, a baseball betting model to a ice hockey betting model. And we can tell you, while no sports betting model you build will be light work, the first model for sports betting that you build is always the hardest.
So where do you start?
In this article we will discuss the fundamental things to consider before getting started on a sports betting model. And in doing so, try to impart to you some of the lessons we have learnt along the way in the hope that it saves you some time and frustration.
Understand What You're Attempting To Do
It's pretty elementary, but you would be surprised by the number of people who miss the point and don't quite grasp what any sports betting model is trying to achieve.
And what is that exactly?
Well, each of the betting models we have developed attempt to assess the current 'potential' of a team or participant, which is then compared to its opposition in an attempt to gauge the likely outcome of the contest.
What you're essentially trying to do with a betting model, in very basic terms, iscreate an independant point of reference from which you can ascertain the probability of all possible outcomes in a given match or contest.
Ideally you want your betting model to be able to recognise value in a given betting market. In other words, you want it to give a truer expression of a team's potential or 'form' than what the bookmakers odds do.
Once you've developed your model, for whatever sport or league you are looking to bet on, you'll be surprised how often it can identify value in the market. Will it always get it right? Of course not. But a fully developed statistical betting model will show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.
Learn Your Probability Theory
Yeah we know, it sounds like homework. Bor-ing. But you're not doing yourself any favours unless you understand the fundamentals of probability theory. And it's not so much about learning and grasping theory, although it's important. It's equally as much about inspiration.The more you read about and understand probability theory, the more imaginative you'll become with your betting models. You'll come up with all sorts of interesting and creative things to do with the numbers, taking angles you hadn't even considered.
Sure you can probably get by developing a predictive model with basic maths. Maybe. But it's not going to be the cunning bookie killing machine that you've always imagined having at your disposal.
Know How To Manipulate A Spreadsheet
A successful bettor once told us his first betting model was developed using graph paper. Yeah, that's right: graph paper. It was clumsy. It was inefficient. But it's all he knew. Then after he discovered spreadsheets, and from there databases and from there some very basic Php programming. No you don't have to be a programming wiz to build a sports betting model. Most successful bettors are not. But the more you do know about spreadsheets and the like, the better off you will be and the more powerful your testing and analysis will be. And perhaps most of all, the more efficiently you will make use of your time.
So at the very least, know how to throw a spreadsheet around and learn how to make the data dance. And from there, work your way into building databases and writing queries. Trust us. You'll be glad you did.
Know The Sport And Its Betting Markets
If you're starting to develop your first betting model or system, we would recommend you begin with not only a sport you know well, but a league you know well. And by knowing well, we mean like a ruthless expert. If you don't understand the fundamentals of the sport or league, it's very difficult to know where to begin in your analysis and very difficult to know how to assess the performance of the sport's participants. And by understanding the fundamentals we also mean have a clear and comfortable understanding of the betting markets for that sport. The markets that you are going to attack is at the very core of your betting model's identity. Is that market head to head betting? Is it line betting or handicap?
In other words, the manner in which you decide to assess a team's performance is going to be determined by the betting market you want to find value in. So know the sport's betting markets as well as you know the sport itself.
You must also keep in mind bookmaker limits and market liquidity. The amount of money you can get down on a particular league or bet type is something to consider before spending hours building your betting model. Sure, you might make a killer model for Polish 2nd Division football. But are you going to be able to bet at a rate that makes the time spent on the model worthwhile?
Personally we would stay away from the more obscure leagues, at least in developing your first model. For one thing, mainstream bookmakers are far more sensitive to successful betting in these sorts of leagues. They will move quickly to restrict your betting if they feel you've got an edge in a league that they would readily admit to not knowing as well as they should. Plus bet limits in these leagues usually begin pretty low anyway. And even if you move your action to a betting exchange like Betfair, you're going to have trouble getting your money matched in the lower leagues.
So aim high. Shoot for the big time. This is where the money is. And it's where the challenge is too. Build a betting model that will give you options and one that will provide for you long-term.
Data Data Data
Your model is going to need data. At the very least that means final scores, but ideally it means meaty in-depth stats that you can breakdown and incorporate into an algorithm. And most of all – historical odds for which to test your model on. Where can you get the data you need in the format you desire? Is it readily available in spreadsheet form? Well, that can be the tough part. There are plenty of sources on the net for statistical data for a wide number of leagues. Some are free. Some will cost you a pretty penny. It's worth spending hours trawling the web for sources. You'll often find the best sources in places you'd never expect, tucked away in the far reaches of the internet.
But you won't always find exactly what you are after, especially if you're looking to make a betting model for more obscure sports or leagues. So there is always the option of doing your own data entry, even if it's to augment a data source from another provider. Personally, we'd advise this only as a last resort. Because to be perfectly honest – data entry sucks. We would also recommend becoming familiar with data scraping software. This software will allow you to scrape data from websites directly into spreadsheet format. Learning how to do this (and it's fairly simple these days with the great range of intuitive software available) will save you hours if not days or weeks in data collection.
But if you are going to head down the path of manual data entry and begin your own data source from scratch, just remember to repeat this mantra: “You only have to do it once. You only have to do it once.” It helps.