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NBA Betting Tips and Predictions

The NBA is the most popular and exciting league in the world! Global basketball superstars like LeBron James, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokoumpo, Kevin Durant,  Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic make every game a must-watch. You are at the right place if you are looking for NBA expert picks.

Check out our predictions from the bettingexpert community, all 100% free.

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NBA Betting Stats

If you are serious about your NBA betting tips, it’s important to understand the biases reflected in betting markets. Examining a large sample size of stats can help you identify betting angles other bettors and tipsters are missing. There wouldn’t be NBA expert picks if it wasn’t for the stats gathered every year. Each game is carefully examined and data is collected that you can use for your betting picks. Following betting trends can give you an edge but it takes a lot of time and experience to recognize which stat matters at the moment.

Straight Up Win-Loss NBA Stats

The table below displays the win-loss percentages for NBA teams across a number of situations for past seasons. We can see that home teams almost 60% of games in the NBA which is one of the highest home advantages in American sports. Sometimes looking at the average teams like the New York Knicks might be a good idea because the odds will always be higher when betting only on 1×2.

Situation WIN PCT LOSS PCT
Home Teams 59.5% 40.5%
Away Teams 40.5% 59.5%
Favourites 69.1% 30.9%
Underdogs 30.9% 69.1%
Home Favourites 71.0% 29.0%
Home Underdogs 35.1% 64.9%
Away Favourites 64.9% 35.1%
Away Underdogs 29.0% 71.0%
After A Win 53.9% 46.1%
After A Loss 46.0% 54.0%
With More Rest 55.5% 44.5%
After 1 Days Rest 51.6% 48.4%

NBA Stats Against The Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NBA is to bet against the spread. As we can see from the data below, there has been no clear advantage for teams playing across a range of situations for the past 10 seasons. While we saw that teams playing with an advantage in rest won almost 56% of games played, that advantage was not mirrored when playing against the market, in which case such teams covered the spread just under 50% of the time.

Situation WIN PCT LOSS PCT
Home Teams 49.6% 50.4%
Away Teams 50.4% 49.6%
Favourites 50.2% 49.8%
Underdogs 49.8% 50.2%
Home Favourites 49.8% 50.2%
Home Underdogs 49.1% 50.9%
Away Favourites 50.9% 49.1%
Away Underdogs 50.2% 49.8%
After A Win 49.4% 50.6%
After A Loss 50.6% 49.4%
With More Rest 49.6% 50.4%
After 1 Day Rest 50.2% 49.8%

Over Under NBA Betting Stats

Points totals in the NBA can vary between south of 180 points to north of 240 points depending on the playing styles of the teams involved. We can see that there has been a slight advantage for bettors who have bet the Under, particularly in Division and Playoff games, in which almost 52% of games ended up going under the total. Of course, this depends on the team like the Miami Heat or Boston Celtics that tend to have solid defense but not that good to stop top players.

Situation OVER WIN PCT UNDER WIN PCT
Conference Games 49.4% 50.6%
Division Games 48.3% 51.7%
Playoff Games 48.3% 51.7%
Non-Conference Games 49.2% 50.8%
Non-Division Games 49.6% 50.4%
Regular Season Games 49.4% 50.6%

NBA teams play 82-season games, so even before the excitement of the playoffs and the final, there is an abundance of weekly games to bet on and plenty of our free NBA picks to take full advantage of!

When consistently betting on any sport it is advisable to employ a sports betting strategy. The bettingexpert Academy can help with forming a strategy. Our NBA Betting Guide is detailed and concise, and you will find everything you need to improve your predictions by checking it out.

NBA Betting Tips: Crafting Winning Strategies

Crafting a winning strategy in NBA betting requires a blend of discipline, keen observation, and an ongoing willingness to learn. Mastering the art of placing smart bets isn’t just about luck—it’s also about making informed decisions based on solid NBA betting tips.

  • Stay Informed: They must keep up with the latest news, including player injuries, team dynamics, and coaching strategies. Information is power in the world of sports betting.
  • Understand Value Betting: It’s not always about picking a winner but finding bets that have better odds than they should. This means sometimes betting on an underdog if the situation seems favourable.
  • Bankroll Management: Bettors should set aside a specific amount for wagering purposes and stick to it. This helps them avoid emotional decision-making that can lead to chasing losses or overspending.
  • Specialize: Rather than spreading their bets across every game, they might focus on certain teams or types of bets where they have more knowledge or better information.
  • Shop for Odds: Different sportsbooks offer varying lines so it pays to shop around. They must find the best value for their bet by comparing odds across platforms before placing their wager.
  • Avoid Bias: Emotional attachment to teams can cloud judgment. Successful bettors make decisions based on data and trends rather than personal preference.

More specific NBA-related advice includes:

NBA Computer Picks

Even if computer picks can be great because you are taking the statistics as the main factor for your bets, the computer picks work only in cases when nothing changed before the last game. Even then, every game is unpredictable to a certain extent. You can’t use statistics for the finals by looking at what happened in the past decade because for each finals things change a lot, new players and ways of playing basketball are changing.

Picks Against the Spread

One of the most common things people bet on when it comes to NBA picks are picks against the spread. NBA sportsbooks offer a lot of options but most played are picks against the spread for the teams and players. You can check top NBA sportsbooks at the bottom and see what the picks against the spread look like. Most NBA picks on bettingexpert will include picks against the spread as one of the tips.

Check Head-to-Head Matchups

One of the best ways of forecasting a result is by examining their previous Head-to-Head matches. By seeing the previous six results between two teams that are scheduled to meet, one can often form a solid opinion as to the outcome of their latest meeting.

If you would like to know more, visit the bettingexpert Academy and read our basketball betting guide.

Past NBA Champions and Regular Season Win Total

SEASON CLUB  WINS
2022/23 Denver Nuggets 53
2021/22 Golden State Warriors 53
2020/21 Milwaukee Bucks 46
2019/20 Los Angeles Lakers 52
2018/19 Toronto Raptors 58

Bookmakers For Betting On NBA

It wasn’t always the case, but these days it’s not too hard to find a top online bookmaker who caters in-depth for fans of NBA predictions and comes armed with expert picks.
When choosing your online bookmaker try and stick to the well-established names you are familiar with, and be sure that your bookmaker provides these four key elements:

  • Consistently Competitive Odds
  • A Wide Range Of Betting Markets
  • All Major Competitions Covered
  • Extensive In-Play Betting Markets

To find the ideal bookmaker for your tips, be sure to read our detailed bookmaker reviews.

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