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NBA Expert Picks and Predictions - NBA Betting Tips

NBA is the most popular and exciting league in the world! Global basketball superstars like LeBron James, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokoumpo, Kevin Durant,  Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic make every NBA game a must watch. You are at the right place if you are looking for the best NBA picks.

Check out our NBA picks and predictions from the bettingexpert community, all 100% free.

Events starting soon

NBA Season 2023/24

The first NBA game for the upcoming season is expected on the 24th of October 2023. You can expect all match previews and free NBA picks from our experts before the season starts. Denver Nuggets took the 77th title from the Miami Heat with a 4:1 end score.  The 2023/24 season ends on April 14th 2024.

NBA preseason is about to start and we will definitely cover all games, some of them with our basketball expert insights and others with free NBA betting picks from our community. The opening NBA game is between the Timberwolves and Mavericks on the 5th of October 2023.

Jokic vs LeBron NBA

NBA Winner Odds

Among our NBA picks, you will find winner predictions. The odds differ depending on the bookmaker but most of them favour Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics. Miami Heat is among the top 5 teams and they are definitely one of them that could surprise the favourites.

Winner Odds bet365 Paddy Power Unibet BoyleSports 10bet
Denver Nuggets 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2
Boston Celtics 19/4 9/2 11/2 5 19/4
Phoenix Suns 13/2 6 6 13/2 13/2
Milwaukee Bucks 6 11/2 11/2 6 6
Miami Heat 10 8 8 10 10
Golden State Warriors 12 9 12 12 11
Los Angeles Lakers 12 9 14 12 10
Philadelphia 76ers 15 12 18 18 15
Los Angeles Clippers 16 12 16 20 16

*Odds are subject to change prior to the start of the competition.

Most bookies also have the option to combine league winner bets with other NBA picks, so you can check other match previews as well before making a bet. Our NBA picks are usually posted on the same day or a day before the match starts. Make sure you are updated with the latest information in order to increase your chances of winning.

NBA Betting Stats

If you are serious about your NBA picks, it’s important to understand the biases reflected in NBA betting markets. Examining a large sample size of stats can help you identify betting angles other bettors and tipsters are missing. There wouldn’t be NBA expert picks if it wasn’t for the stats gathered every year.

Straight Up Win-Loss NBA Stats

The table below displays the win-loss percentages for NBA teams across a number of situations since the 2007 NBA season. We can see that home teams almost 60% of games in the NBA which is one of the highest home advantages in American sports.

Home Teams 59.5% 40.5%
Away Teams 40.5% 59.5%
Favourites 69.1% 30.9%
Underdogs 30.9% 69.1%
Home Favourites 71.0% 29.0%
Home Underdogs 35.1% 64.9%
Away Favourites 64.9% 35.1%
Away Underdogs 29.0% 71.0%
After A Win 53.9% 46.1%
After A Loss 46.0% 54.0%
After 1 Days Rest 51.6% 48.4%
After 2 or 3 Days Rest 52.0% 48.0%
After 4 or More Days Rest 51.0% 49.0%
With More Rest 55.5% 44.5%

NBA Stats Against The Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NBA is to bet against the spread. As we can see from the data below, there has been no clear advantage for teams playing across a range of situations since the 2007 season. While we saw that teams playing with an advantage in rest won almost 56% of games played, that advantage was not mirrored when playing against the market, in which case such teams covered the spread just under 50% of the time.

Home Teams 49.6% 50.4%
Away Teams 50.4% 49.6%
Favourites 50.2% 49.8%
Underdogs 49.8% 50.2%
Home Favourites 49.8% 50.2%
Home Underdogs 49.1% 50.9%
Away Favourites 50.9% 49.1%
Away Underdogs 50.2% 49.8%
After A Win 49.4% 50.6%
After A Loss 50.6% 49.4%
After 1 Day Rest 50.2% 49.8%
After 2 or 3 Days of Rest 49.7% 50.3%
After 4 or More Days Rest 49.4% 50.6%
With More Rest 49.6% 50.4%

Over Under NBA Betting Stats

Points totals in the NBA can vary between south of 180 points to north of 240 points depending on the playing styles of the teams involved. Since the 2007 NBA season, we can see that there has been a slight advantage for bettors who have bet the Under, particularly in Division and Playoff games, in which almost 52% of games ended going under the total.

Conference Games 49.4% 50.6%
Division Games 48.3% 51.7%
Playoff Games 48.3% 51.7%
Non-Conference Games 49.2% 50.8%
Non-Division Games 49.6% 50.4%
Regular Season Games 49.4% 50.6%

NBA Betting Guide and Tips

If you intend to start doing NBA bets, it’s worthwhile knowing a little about the league itself. Remember, when you bet on NBA games, be sure to use our free NBA picks!

NBA teams play 82-season games, so even before the excitement of the playoffs and the NBA Final, there is an abundance of weekly games to bet on and plenty of bettingexpert’s free NBA picks to take full advantage of!

When consistently betting on any sport it is advisable to employ a sports betting strategy. The bettingexpert Academy can help with forming a betting strategy. Bettingexpert’s NBA Betting Guide is detailed and concise, and you will find everything you need to improve your NBA predictions by checking it out.

Here are a few pointers from our NBA betting guide:

  • Only Bet When There’s Value – This makes sense, but sometimes people like to bet on NBA picks because they like a certain team even if there’s no real value in the bet.
  • Specialise – The NBA offers a multitude of betting markets. Find out what market you enjoy the most and have the most success with, and focus your attention on it.
  • Keep A Record – Maintaining a record of your prior wagers enables you to see where you might have gone wrong, and also allows you to get a clear picture of what markets you excel at.

More specific NBA-related advice includes:

Do Your Preseason Research

The more you know about the sport of the NBA, the luckier you will become in your NBA predictions. Preseason, find out which teams have strengthened their squads and which have lost key players. There is usually a buzz around specific teams long before a ball has been pitched, and this will often be an insight into early success on the field and maybe even throughout the season.

NBA Computer Picks

Even if computer picks can be great because you are taking the statistics as the main factor for your NBA bets, NBA computer picks work only in cases when nothing changed before the last game. Even then, every game is unpredictable to a certain extent. You can’t use statistics for the NBA finals by looking at what happened in the past decade because for each NBA finals things change a lot, new players and ways of playing basketball are changing.

Picks Against the Spread

One of the most common things people bet on when it comes to NBA picks are picks against the spread. NBA sportsbooks offer a lot of options but most played are picks against the spread for the teams and players. You can check top NBA sportsbooks at the bottom and see what the picks against the spread look like. Most NBA picks on bettingexpert will include picks against the spread as one of the tips.

Check Head-to-Head Matchups

One of the best ways of forecasting a result is by examining their previous Head-to-Head matches. By seeing the previous six results between two teams that are scheduled to meet, one can often form a solid opinion as to the outcome of their latest meeting.

Learn To Spot The Upset

Every NBA league team will play a ton of games during the course of a season. For example, during the regular season in the NBA teams will play 82 games. Even teams that win their divisions and progress to the playoffs lose a lot of matches, around 50 on average. Top NBA teams are pretty much favourited every time they play, yet they will still lose one in three of their games, so picking those games and backing the other team to pull off the upset will prove quite good.

Home and Away

One might think that it would always be beneficial for a team to play at its home stadium, but that’s not always the case. A sequence of home defeats can turn the most loyal fan base into a baying mob, and when that happens, the bused team will actually start to play better NBA in away stadiums.

If you would like to know more, visit the bettingexpert Academy and read our basketball betting guide.

Past NBA Champions and Regular Season Win Total

2022/23 Denver Nuggets 53
2021/22 Golden State Warriors 53
2020/21 Milwaukee Bucks 46
2019/20 Los Angeles Lakers 52
2018/19 Toronto Raptors 58
2017/18 Golden State Warriors 58
2016/17 Golden State Warriors 67

Today’s Basketball NBA Picks

With the number of free NBA predictions available on bettingexpert, NBA bettors will have a tip for prop bets, computer picks, bet slips, etc. For each match, you can check the odds picks and predictions including the NBA Playoffs. Our top basketball tipsters will post their expert picks for games during the regular season, the playoffs, and the games that contest the NBA Finals and the prestigious Larry O’Brien trophy.

The NBA is globally popular, with fan bases in every country of the world. Because of this popularity, the NBA is worth an annual $7 billion, making it one of the five richest sports leagues in the world. It is also one of the best attended, and 22.5 million pass through its turnstiles annually, a number only beaten by MLB and the Nippon baseball league. We also cover MLB picks and predictions on Major League Baseball page. NFL picks and NHL picks are not as popular as NBA picks but MLB is quite different when it comes to betting.

Betting on NBA games is big business, and the resulting demand for NBA picks is huge. Luckily for you, that demand is well covered by our expert NBA tipsters and their free NBA picks that cater for popular markets such as Match Winner, Point Spread and Tournament Outrights, plus supply NBA picks for more niche markets like Total Points, Scoreline Odds/Even, 1st Quarter Winner etc.

Free NBA Betting Tips

The hard-core NBA fanatics from the bettingexpert tipster community are among the experts who generate the NBA expert picks you can rely on throughout the NBA season. At bettingexpert, all of our content is free for all to use including:

  • Our concise and detailed bookmaker reviews
  • The bettingexpert Academy plus other educational material
  • A wide variety of expert NBA picks, including our free predictions

We encourage regular bettingexpert visitors to sign up and enjoy the many benefits that come with being part of such a vast and international community. However, regardless of whether you are a member or not, our expert tips will continue to be 100% free, and that includes our NBA picks.


Bookmakers For Betting On NBA

It wasn’t always the case, but these days it’s not too hard to find a top online bookmaker who caters in-depth for fans of NBA predictions and comes armed with expert NBA picks.
When choosing your online bookmaker try and stick to the well-established names you are familiar with, and be sure that your bookmaker provides these four key elements:

  • Consistently Competitive Odds
  • A Wide Range Of Betting Markets
  • All Major Competitions Covered
  • Extensive In-Play Betting Markets

In-play betting has really caught on in the past few years and enables you to bet on the action during the course of the game, which only adds to the excitement. Some bookmakers now provide Live-Streaming for many sports including NBA, which will also add to the whole in-play betting experience.

To find the ideal bookmaker for your NBA picks, be sure to read our detailed bookmaker reviews.

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