What to expect from Ortega's comeback: Can he beat a raging Korean Zombie?

and has taken lots of blows to the head. His opponent, the champion, Max Holloway has now completely taken over the fight. Ortega’s right eye is almost completely swollen shut and his left will soon be too. As he sits down on the stool Ortega insists that he can continue, but before he knows it the fight is called off by the doctor.

Brian Ortega fought his heart out against Max Holloway in what will go down as one of the best featherweight title fights ever. The challenger saw some openings and landed on the champion in the opening rounds, but the constant output from the champion would eventually take its toll, and at the end of round 4 it was too much. Ortega had faced defeat for the first time as a professional mixed martial artist.

Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega was envisioned to be the new featherweight champion back in March of 2018, after topping off his undefeated UFC run (6-0) with a knockout over renowned UFC veteran Frankie Edgar, a man who had never been finished before, Ortega would be next in line for a title shot.

So let’s fast-forward to the present. Ortega has been out for two years and is making his comeback against The Korean Zombie, formally known as Chan Sung Jung.

Who is The Korean Zombie?

Name: Chan Sung Jung

Height: 175 cm | Weight: 66 kg | Reach: 183 cm

MMA record: 16-5

With a finish rate of 88%, The Korean Zombie is a force to be reckoned with in the 145 lb division right now. In his 8 UFC outings he has won 6 and lost 2. Sung Jung has never seen the judges scorecards in his UFC career. At 33 years of age, he is still in his physical prime and has his best moments ahead of him.

The Zombie is a striker who likes to get it done as quickly and effectively as possible. He lands just over four strikes a minute while eating three. Not to worry though, his chin is tough and despite being on the receiving end of two knockouts in the UFC, he has walked through many wars unscathed. Like with many other strikers, their weakness tends to be a good grappler, however Sung Jung specialises in takedown defence, and has only been dragged to the mat five times in his career.

The Beef: Undefeated at selling fights

Ortega made headlines after getting into a scuffle with a person from Sung Jung’s team. After the incident, Zombie took to social media to bombard Ortega with hostile remarks, calling him out for getting into an altercation with someone with no MMA training. While Ortega claims that his antics were an act of standing up for himself against trash talking from the Zombie’s teammate, malice between two fighters never seems to fail in selling a fight. Sung Jung has publicly sworn to knock out Ortega on multiple occasions, and we can’t wait to see how the fight plays out on Saturday.

Predicting the Winner

While the Zombie’s takedown defence is remarkable, fighters implementing a grappling-heavy game plan have been able to get the better of Sung Jung on the ground before. Jose Aldo took him down 5 times when they faced off, and Ortega’s grappling is likely going to have an effect in this fight. Brian is very dangerous if his opponents get too close to him, as it only takes him a split-second to wrap around their necks and close the show. However, seeing as the Zombie has yet to succumb to submission in his MMA career, there might be a chance that he is able to avoid ending up with Ortega’s limbs wrapped around his neck.

Will Ortega be able to submit Sung Jung? That’s the million dollar question. And while Ortega usually finds some success on the feet, it isn’t without taking one or two from his opponent. Brian is no stranger to being out landed, as we’ve seen him eat more than he lands in 6 of his 8 UFC outings. Ortega now carries a significant negative striking differential into his comeback fight, landing 4 and eating 7 every minute, on average.

A 3-inch reach advantage for Sung Jung don’t make things much better for Ortega. The last time Ortega faced such a reach disadvantage he absorbed over 100 strikes. Mix this with the fact that the Zombie has been more active in the last few years and we’ve gotten ourselves an official prediction.

A glance at the stock market

Please note that odds are subject to change. Presented odds are from the 12th of October 2020.

Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega: 2.62 | +162 | 8/5

Chan Sung Jung ‘The Korean Zombie’: 1.53 | -189 | 10/19

This isn’t the first time this fight has been scheduled. Interestingly enough, when this line was originally brought out it was Ortega as the favourite and Sung Jung as the underdog. Now the perception has changed, and we’ve got Ortega at plus money.

How has the line moved?

Fighter	Opening odds (Oct 6, 10:06)	Oct 6, 15:58	Oct 7	Oct 11	Oct 12
Brian Ortega	2.75	2.70	2.50	2.62	2.62
Chan Sung Jung	1.47	1.50	1.53	1.57	1.53

How to calculate implied probability for Ortega vs Korean Zombie

If you’re thinking about laying some bets on this fight, you might want to consider what probability you give each fighter to win. The way to calculate implied probability is simple. For decimal odds simply divide 100 by the odds and you’ll get a percentage.

Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega: 100 / 2.62 = 38% probability of winning.

Chan Sung Jung ‘The Korean Zombie’: 100 / 1.53 = 65% probability of winning.

How to bet on Ortega vs Korean Zombie

While The Korean Zombie is no cakewalk for any man at 145 lbs, it’s tough to not see value in odds 2.62 for Ortega. He is undefeated outside of title fights, and has a very high finish rate. On top of that, he has the ability to win fights going the distance, as well as inside. The young Ortega is also very tough-chinned, and wasn’t even dropped once by Holloway despite eating 10 shy of 300 punches in hist last bout. The long layoff has without a doubt shown some intelligence on behalf of Brian and with this being the third time Ortega-Korean Zombie is booked, we can only guess that Ortega has been in training camp full time for a while now – ring rust shouldn’t be an issue.

Remember that finding value is crucial before placing bets. Finding value means that you have a probability margin over the bookmakers. For instance, if you believe Chan Sung Jung has a 70% chance of winning Saturday night, you have 5% over the bookies.