Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Sunday, 11 January

Fiorentina will take on AC Milan in a highly anticipated Serie A clash on Sunday, 11 January at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence. This fixture promises to be an exciting encounter as both sides aim to secure vital points in the league standings. Fiorentina, playing at home, will look to make the most of their familiarity with the Artemio Franchi pitch to gain an advantage over their opponents.

AC Milan, meanwhile, will be seeking to continue their strong Serie A form as they travel to face Fiorentina. With both clubs boasting rich histories in Italian football, this match is set to deliver an enthralling contest for fans and punters alike. The outcome could have a significant impact on the league table, making it a must-watch for Serie A followers.

Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Draw – Fiorentina (+1) (EH)	3.8

Considering the odds and the current form of both teams, our recommended betting tip is the European Handicap 1-0 in favour of Fiorentina. This means Fiorentina start the game with a one-goal advantage, which helps balance the match, especially given their strong home performances and AC Milan’s recent difficulties breaking down organised defences.

• Fiorentina have scored in 78% of their home matches this season, demonstrating a reliable attacking record at home.
• AC Milan are unbeaten in 17 consecutive matches in this competition, but often struggle against well-drilled defences.
• With Fiorentina conceding most goals between the 61st and 75th minute, the handicap provides them a buffer to maintain a competitive edge.

Betting Odds

As Fiorentina host AC Milan at the Artemio Franchi, the betting odds favour the visitors. AC Milan are priced at 2.00, making them the favourites, while Fiorentina are considered underdogs at 3.74. The draw is also an appealing option at 3.40, indicating a potentially close contest.

Betting Tip	Odds
Fiorentina to win	3.74
Draw	3.4
AC Milan to win	2

For those considering a wager, the odds suggest potential value in backing AC Milan, given their strong Serie A form. However, Fiorentina’s home advantage could make the draw an enticing option for punters seeking higher returns.

Fiorentina Analysis & Recent Performance

Fiorentina’s recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. Notably, they fought hard for a 2-2 draw against Lazio in their most recent outing, showing resilience despite being outshot 17 to 8.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Lazio	Fiorentina	2 – 2 (Draw)	Serie A	7 Jan 2026
Fiorentina	Cremonese	1 – 0 (Win)	Serie A	4 Jan 2026
Parma Calcio 1913	Fiorentina	1 – 0 (Loss)	Serie A	27 Dec 2025
Fiorentina	Udinese	5 – 1 (Win)	Serie A	21 Dec 2025
FC Lausanne-Sport	Fiorentina	1 – 0 (Loss)	Conference League	18 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Fiorentina have averaged 1.80 goals per game in their last five matches, a positive sign of attacking potential, highlighted by their 5-1 win over Udinese. However, they have conceded an average of 1.20 goals per game and managed just one clean sheet in this period. Their home form has been encouraging, with a 60% win rate in their last five home fixtures, including a recent 1-0 victory over Cremonese.

Team Dynamics:

• DWLWL

Currently 19th in Serie A with 13 points, Fiorentina’s league position does not reflect their potential. Moise Kean, their leading scorer with five goals, remains a key figure up front. Despite their low position, Fiorentina’s consistent scoring in recent games suggests they can trouble opponents, though defensive lapses remain a concern against stronger teams.

Fiorentina Suspensions & Injuries

Fiorentina are contending with several injury concerns, as Tariq Lamptey and Edin Džeko are both doubtful due to a knee injury and physical discomfort respectively. Their possible absence could impact the team’s dynamics, particularly given Lamptey’s versatility on the flanks and Džeko’s experience up front. With Abdelhamid Sabiri and Jacopo Fazzini also unavailable, Fiorentina’s midfield depth is somewhat reduced.

As a result, Fiorentina will likely depend on their usual starting eleven, which remains relatively strong. The presence of Nicolò Fagioli and Rolando Mandragora in midfield should provide stability, while Albert Gudmundsson’s role in attack becomes even more important if Džeko is unavailable. Manager Paolo Vanoli may need to adopt a more conservative approach if these injuries persist, which could affect Fiorentina’s attacking fluidity.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Tariq Lamptey	Knee injury	Doubtful
Edin Džeko	Physical discomfort	Doubtful

Despite these concerns, Fiorentina’s tactical setup in a 4-1-2-3 formation should remain largely unchanged. The team must focus on maintaining possession and exploiting the flanks, where they still possess quality. These absences may slightly shift the betting odds in AC Milan’s favour, making Fiorentina’s task at the Artemio Franchi more challenging.

Fiorentina Key Players

Moise Kean, Fiorentina’s leading scorer with five goals, will be central to their attacking approach against AC Milan. As a versatile forward, Kean’s ability to exploit space and his clinical finishing make him a constant threat. His partnership with Roberto Piccoli and Albert Gudmundsson in the front line is expected to drive Fiorentina’s attacking play, with Kean often the focal point.

In midfield, Nicolò Fagioli’s playmaking skills are vital for Fiorentina. His vision and passing can unlock defences, providing the crucial link between defence and attack. Alongside him, Cher Ndour’s energy and defensive work offer balance, allowing Rolando Mandragora to make forward runs and support the attack.

Expected lineup for Fiorentina

• Goalkeeper: David de Gea
• Defenders: Dodo, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens, Marin Pongračić
• Midfielders: Nicolò Fagioli, Cher Ndour, Rolando Mandragora
• Forwards: Fabiano Parisi, Roberto Piccoli, Albert Gudmundsson

Defensively, Robin Gosens and Marin Pongračić will be key. Gosens’ experience and ability to contribute at both ends of the pitch provide Fiorentina with additional options, while Pongračić’s strength and aerial prowess are vital for maintaining stability at the back, especially against AC Milan’s potent attack.

Fiorentina Tactics and Formation

Fiorentina Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-1-2-3
• Key Forward: Roberto Piccoli
• Midfield Anchor: Rolando Mandragora
• Defensive Consistency: One clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and wing play emphasis.

Fiorentina’s use of the 4-1-2-3 formation highlights their attacking intent, with Rolando Mandragora anchoring the midfield. This setup allows for dynamic wing play, with Dodo and Robin Gosens providing width and overlapping runs from full-back.

In attack, Roberto Piccoli is set to lead the line, supported by Fabiano Parisi and Albert Gudmundsson on the flanks. Their strategy is built on high pressing, aiming to disrupt the opposition’s build-up and create quick transitions.

Defensively, Fiorentina rely on the cohesion of their back four, with David de Gea’s experience in goal offering extra assurance. Despite only one clean sheet in their last five games, defensive organisation remains crucial against teams like AC Milan, where maintaining structure is essential.

AC Milan Analysis & Recent Performance

AC Milan currently sit second in the Serie A table, demonstrating strong form with 39 points from 18 matches played this season. Their recent performances have been impressive, featuring a well-rounded attack averaging 1.40 goals per game over the last ten matches. Recent results include a commanding 3-0 victory over Verona and a 1-0 away win at Cagliari, underlining their ability to secure results both home and away.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
AC Milan	Genoa	1 – 1 (Draw)	Serie A	8 Jan 2026
Cagliari	AC Milan	0 – 1 (Win)	Serie A	2 Jan 2026
AC Milan	Verona	3 – 0 (Win)	Serie A	28 Dec 2025
SSC Napoli	AC Milan	2 – 0 (Loss)	Super Cup	18 Dec 2025
AC Milan	Sassuolo	2 – 2 (Draw)	Serie A	14 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• DWWLD

In their last five games, AC Milan have shown resilience, recording two wins and two draws. They have scored in four of these five matches, with Christian Pulisic leading as top scorer on eight goals this season. Defensively, they have managed two clean sheets, although conceding an average of one goal per game suggests there is room for improvement. Their away form is impressive, with a 60% win rate in their last five away fixtures, confirming AC Milan as a strong side on their travels.

AC Milan Suspensions & Injuries

AC Milan are facing a challenging situation with Santiago Giménez sidelined due to an ankle injury, expected to keep him out until late January 2026. His absence could affect Milan’s attacking depth, as Giménez has been a potent option up front. Additionally, Christopher Nkunku’s thigh injury further restricts creative options in attack, though he is also expected back by late January. With Ruben Loftus-Cheek experiencing fitness issues, his availability is doubtful, which may require a reshuffle in midfield.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Santiago Giménez	Ankle injury	Late January 2026
Christopher Nkunku	Thigh injury	Late January 2026
Ruben Loftus-Cheek	Fitness issue	Doubtful

In the absence of Giménez and Nkunku, AC Milan may rely more heavily on Rafael Leão for attacking impetus, potentially adjusting their tactics to maximise his effectiveness. The midfield could see greater involvement from Luka Modrić and Adrien Rabiot, who are crucial for controlling the tempo and supplying the forwards. This scenario may lead to a more centralised attacking approach, focusing on possession and exploiting any defensive weaknesses in Fiorentina’s setup.

These injuries could influence the betting markets, as AC Milan’s attacking options are somewhat limited. The team may adopt a more cautious strategy, balancing defensive solidity with selective attacking moves. Punters should consider these absences when assessing Milan’s chances, as reduced attacking depth could impact their goal-scoring potential.

AC Milan Key Players

AC Milan’s attacking threat is led by Christian Pulisic, the team’s top scorer with eight goals this season. Pulisic’s dynamic play and ability to exploit space make him a constant danger to Fiorentina’s defence. His partnership with Rafael Leão, who is expected to feature alongside him in attack, could be crucial in unlocking the opposition’s back line.

In midfield, the experienced Luka Modrić and industrious Youssouf Fofana are expected to control the game’s tempo. Modrić’s vision and passing are key for breaking down defences, while Fofana’s work rate provides balance and support in both defensive and attacking transitions. At the back, Fikayo Tomori’s leadership and athleticism are essential for maintaining a solid defensive line against Fiorentina’s attacking threat.

Expected lineup for AC Milan:

• Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan
• Defence: Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, Davide Bartesaghi
• Midfield: Alexis Saelemaekers, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupiñán
• Forward: Rafael Leão, Ruben Loftus-Cheek

AC Milan Tactics and Formation

AC Milan Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Rafael Leão
• Midfield Engine: Luka Modrić and Adrien Rabiot
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Utilising wing-backs for width and defensive solidity.

AC Milan’s 3-5-2 formation under Massimiliano Allegri is designed to maximise midfield control and provide width through the wing-backs. The midfield trio of Luka Modrić, Youssouf Fofana, and Adrien Rabiot offers a blend of creativity and defensive cover, with Modrić orchestrating play from deep.

Defensively, the back three of Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, and Davide Bartesaghi is supported by Mike Maignan in goal, contributing to their two clean sheets in recent matches. Pervis Estupiñán and Alexis Saelemaekers as wing-backs allow Milan to stretch the play and support both defensive and attacking transitions.

In attack, Rafael Leão’s pace and Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s physical presence are pivotal. With Christian Pulisic unavailable due to injury, the team will rely more on Leão’s individual brilliance and Loftus-Cheek’s link-up play to break down Fiorentina’s defence.

Fiorentina vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AC Milan shows Milan leading with 23 wins to Fiorentina’s 14, along with 13 draws from their last 50 meetings. In their most recent encounter, AC Milan claimed a 2-1 home victory in Serie A in October 2025.

When Fiorentina last hosted AC Milan, in October 2024, they secured a 2-1 win, demonstrating their strength at the Artemio Franchi. Historically, Milan have had the upper hand, but Fiorentina’s home advantage could be a significant factor in this fixture.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	League	Date
AC Milan	Fiorentina	2 – 1	Serie A	2025-10-19
AC Milan	Fiorentina	2 – 2	Serie A	2025-04-05
Fiorentina	AC Milan	2 – 1	Serie A	2024-10-06
Fiorentina	AC Milan	1 – 2	Serie A	2024-03-30
AC Milan	Fiorentina	1 – 0	Serie A	2023-11-25