Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction & Match Preview – 1 February

Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction & Match Preview – 1 February. Looking ahead to this Eredivisie clash, Excelsior will host Ajax at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion on Sunday, 1 February. This match promises to be an intriguing encounter as both teams vie for crucial points in the league standings. Ajax, a dominant force in Dutch football, will be eager to assert their superiority, while Excelsior will aim to leverage home advantage to challenge their formidable opponents.

The Eredivisie fixture at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion is set to be a test of resilience and strategy. Excelsior, playing on their home turf, will look to disrupt Ajax’s rhythm and secure a positive result. Meanwhile, Ajax will be focused on maintaining their position at the top of the league table. This match is significant for both teams, as it could impact their respective campaigns in the Eredivisie.

Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Ajax to Win	1.77

Ajax are firm favourites to win this encounter against Excelsior, and considering their strong away form coupled with Excelsior’s inconsistent home performances, betting on an away win offers good value at odds of 1.77.

• Ajax have an impressive away record with only one loss in their last nine matches.
• Excelsior have managed just one victory in their last five home games, indicating a struggle to secure points at home.
• Despite a recent slip, Ajax’s overall stronger squad depth and historical dominance in this fixture make them likely to bounce back and secure a win.

Betting Odds

In this Eredivisie clash, Ajax are clear favourites with betting odds at 1.77, reflecting their superior form and squad depth. Excelsior, playing at home, are priced at 4.06, suggesting a tough challenge ahead for them.

Betting Tip	Odds
Excelsior to win	4.06
Draw	3.88
Ajax to win	1.77

For those looking at alternative markets, the odds for a draw stand at 3.88, which could be tempting given Excelsior’s potential to surprise on their home turf. Punters might also explore the over 2.5 goals market, considering Ajax’s attacking prowess.

Excelsior Analysis & Recent Performance

Excelsior’s recent form has seen them struggle to secure victories, recording just one win in their last five matches. This includes a 0-0 draw against Twente, a 1-1 stalemate with AZ Alkmaar, and a 2-2 draw at home to Telstar. Their only win came against PEC Zwolle, ending 2-1, while they suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Twente	Excelsior	0 – 0 (Draw)	Eredivisie	24 Jan 2026
AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	1 – 1 (Draw)	Eredivisie	21 Jan 2026
Excelsior	Telstar	2 – 2 (Draw)	Eredivisie	17 Jan 2026
PSV Eindhoven	Excelsior	5 – 1 (Loss)	Eredivisie	10 Jan 2026
Excelsior	PEC Zwolle	2 – 1 (Win)	Eredivisie	20 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Excelsior have averaged 1.20 goals per game over their last five matches, while conceding 1.80 goals on average, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. They have managed to score in 80% of these fixtures but have only kept one clean sheet, underlining issues at the back. Their home form shows a slight improvement, with two wins out of five, giving a win ratio of 40% at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.

Currently sitting in 13th position in the Eredivisie, Excelsior have accumulated 22 points from 20 matches. Noah Naujoks has been a standout performer, leading the team with six goals this season. However, the team’s inability to maintain defensive solidity, as evidenced by 35 goals conceded this season, remains a significant concern as they face tougher opponents.

• DDDLW

Excelsior Suspensions & Injuries

Excelsior approach this encounter with Ajax boasting a fully fit squad, as no injuries or suspensions are currently affecting their lineup. This fortunate scenario provides head coach Ruben den Uil with the luxury of fielding his strongest possible eleven, potentially giving them an edge in terms of tactical flexibility and depth on the bench.

Given the absence of any unavailable players, Excelsior can maintain their preferred formation and playing style without having to make significant adjustments. This continuity is crucial for team chemistry and performance consistency, especially in a challenging match against a formidable opponent like Ajax.

The full availability of players ensures that Excelsior can implement their strategic plans without compromise, allowing them to focus on exploiting any weaknesses in the Ajax setup. This also means that they can rotate players effectively, keeping the squad fresh and dynamic throughout the match.

From a betting perspective, the complete availability of Excelsior’s squad might suggest a more competitive performance than expected, potentially influencing betting markets. Punters may view this full-strength lineup as a positive sign, possibly impacting odds and betting strategies around this Eredivisie clash.

Excelsior Key Players

Excelsior’s attacking threat will heavily rely on their top scorer, Noah Naujoks, who has impressively netted six goals so far this season. Naujoks is known for his clinical finishing and ability to exploit defensive gaps, making him a constant threat in front of goal. His partnership with forward Mike van Duinen could be pivotal, as van Duinen’s experience and ability to hold up play allows Naujoks to make penetrating runs into the box.

In midfield, Lennard Hartjes plays a crucial role as a playmaker, orchestrating the team’s attacking movements. His vision and passing accuracy are vital in linking defence and attack, providing opportunities for the forward line. Defensively, Casper Widell stands out as a commanding presence at the back. His aerial ability and tackling prowess will be essential in thwarting Ajax’s attacking threats.

Expected lineup for Excelsior:

• Goalkeeper: Stijn van Gassel
• Defenders: Nolan Martens, Casper Widell, Stan Henderikx, Simon Janssen
• Midfielders: Chris-Kévin Nadje, Lennard Hartjes, Irakli Yegoian
• Forwards: Miliano Jonathans, Gyan de Regt, Mike van Duinen

Excelsior Tactics & Formation

Excelsior Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Mike van Duinen
• Midfield Engine: Lennard Hartjes
• Defensive Challenge: One clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Focus on defensive solidity and counter-attacking opportunities.

Excelsior’s likely 4-3-3 formation aims to provide width and balance, especially crucial against a formidable opponent like Ajax. In midfield, Lennard Hartjes plays a pivotal role in orchestrating play and maintaining possession, an area where Excelsior have struggled, as evidenced by their 35% possession against Twente.

Defensively, the backline featuring Stan Henderikx and Casper Widell must remain compact and disciplined to handle Ajax’s attacking prowess. Excelsior’s recent performance, with only one clean sheet in the last five matches, indicates a need for heightened defensive focus.

Offensively, Mike van Duinen’s role as a central forward is crucial, with support from wingers Miliano Jonathans and Gyan de Regt. Excelsior often capitalise on counter-attacking opportunities, utilising the pace of their forwards to exploit spaces left by Ajax’s attacking full-backs.

Ajax Analysis & Recent Performance

Ajax’s recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches. Their recent performances include a commanding 2-0 victory over FC Volendam and a disappointing 1-2 loss to Olympiacos in the Champions League.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Ajax	Olympiacos	1 – 2 (Loss)	Champions League	Jan 28, 2026
Ajax	FC Volendam	2 – 0 (Win)	Eredivisie	Jan 24, 2026
Villarreal	Ajax	1 – 2 (Win)	Champions League	Jan 20, 2026
Ajax	Go Ahead Eagles	2 – 2 (Draw)	Eredivisie	Jan 17, 2026
AZ Alkmaar	Ajax	6 – 0 (Loss)	KNVB Cup	Jan 14, 2026

Recent Form:
Ajax have managed to score an average of 1.40 goals per game in their last five fixtures while conceding 2.20 goals per match. They have kept just one clean sheet in this period, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. However, with a win ratio of 40% in these matches, they remain competitive in the Eredivisie.

Team Dynamics:

• LWWDL

Ajax’s attacking prowess is evident, led by their top scorer Mika Godts, who has netted eight goals this season. Although their attacking statistics are strong, averaging 3.6 goals in games where both teams score, their defensive frailties, especially evident in the 6-0 defeat by AZ Alkmaar, suggest an area needing improvement.

Ajax Suspensions & Injuries

Ajax face some significant challenges in their upcoming match against Excelsior, with key players Steven Berghuis and Ko Itakura unavailable due to injuries. Berghuis, suffering from a groin injury, is doubtful for the match, while Itakura’s back injury rules him out until mid-February. These absences could potentially disrupt Ajax’s midfield and defensive strategies, given the importance of these players in their respective positions.

The absence of Steven Berghuis, a creative force in midfield, is likely to require tactical adjustments from coach Fred Grim. Without Berghuis, Ajax may need to rely more on Davy Klaassen to drive forward play and create opportunities. Meanwhile, Ko Itakura’s injury might see Josip Sutalo stepping up in a defensive role, although the depth in the defensive line will be tested.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Steven Berghuis	Groin injury	Doubtful
Ko Itakura	Back injury	Mid February 2026

In terms of betting implications, the unavailability of key players such as Berghuis and Itakura could make Ajax slightly more vulnerable against Excelsior. Bettors might consider the impact of these injuries on Ajax’s overall performance, particularly in maintaining their defensive solidity and creative midfield play, potentially affecting the match outcome.

Ajax Key Players

Ajax’s offensive thrust will be spearheaded by their top scorer, Mika Godts, who has netted eight goals this season. Godts, operating as a forward, is renowned for his clinical finishing and keen positioning, making him a constant threat to Excelsior’s defence. His ability to exploit spaces and convert chances is pivotal to Ajax’s attacking strategy.

Supporting Godts in attack is Kasper Dolberg, whose physical presence and aerial prowess can unsettle any defence. In midfield, Davy Klaassen’s experience and vision provide the creative spark necessary to link play and maintain possession effectively. The defensive line, marshalled by Youri Baas, combines youthful energy with tactical discipline, crucial for maintaining a solid backline.

Expected lineup for Ajax

• Goalkeeper: Vitezslav Jaros
• Defenders: Anton Gaaei, Aaron Bouwman, Youri Baas, Lucas Rosa
• Midfielders: Davy Klaassen, Youri Regeer, Sean Steur
• Forwards: Rayane Bounida, Kasper Dolberg, Mika Godts

The tactical impact of these key players is significant; Godts’ goal-scoring ability, coupled with Dolberg’s versatility, allows Ajax to adapt their attacking play dynamically. Klaassen’s influence in midfield ensures control and fluidity, while the defensive solidity provided by Baas and his colleagues can thwart Excelsior’s offensive efforts. These strengths are vital for Ajax as they seek to dominate possession and capitalise on goal-scoring opportunities.

Ajax Tactics & Formation

Ajax Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Likely 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Kasper Dolberg
• Midfield Pivot: Davy Klaassen and Youri Regeer
• Defensive Strength: Clean sheets in two of the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High possession and pressing style.

In their recent outings, Ajax have typically lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, which allows them to dominate possession and employ a high-pressing style. Davy Klaassen and Youri Regeer are expected to marshal the midfield, providing both defensive cover and creative support.

With Kasper Dolberg leading the line, Ajax’s attack is spearheaded by a forward capable of both holding up play and finishing chances. Supported by wingers Oscar Gloukh and Mika Godts, Ajax look to stretch opposition defences and create space in the final third.

Defensively, the backline of Anton Gaaei, Josip Sutalo, Youri Baas, and Owen Wijndal has been generally solid, contributing to clean sheets in two of their last five games. However, the absence of Steven Berghuis due to injury might necessitate strategic adjustments, potentially affecting their attacking fluidity.

Excelsior vs Ajax Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Ajax, Ajax have been dominant with 18 wins out of 26 encounters, while Excelsior have managed just three victories, alongside five draws. The last meeting was a surprising 2-1 win for Excelsior at Ajax’s home ground, showing they can pull off an upset.

When these teams met at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in August 2023, the match ended in a 2-2 draw, indicating that Excelsior can be a tough nut to crack at home. However, Ajax’s overall superior form in the Eredivisie suggests they are likely to bounce back.

Home Side	Away Side	Score	League	Date
Ajax	Excelsior	1 – 2	Eredivisie	2025-11-22
Ajax	Excelsior	2 – 2	Eredivisie	2024-04-24
Excelsior	Ajax	2 – 2	Eredivisie	2023-08-19
Excelsior	Ajax	1 – 4	Eredivisie	2023-01-29
Ajax	Excelsior	7 – 1	Eredivisie	2022-10-16