Alianza Lima vs CD UT Cajamarca Prediction, Match Preview, Sunday, 23 November

Alianza Lima will face CD UT Cajamarca in the Primera División on Sunday, 23 November. This matchup promises to be an intriguing contest as both sides look to make their mark in the league. Alianza Lima, renowned for their strong home performances, will be eager to capitalise on their home advantage, even though the venue details remain unspecified.

CD UT Cajamarca, meanwhile, will aim to upset the hosts and climb the league standings. With both teams having plenty to play for, this encounter is set to offer plenty of action. Watch closely to see how Alianza Lima’s home form compares with CD UT Cajamarca’s determination to secure valuable points away from home.

Alianza Lima vs CD UT Cajamarca Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Alianza Lima to Win	1.16

Alianza Lima’s recent form and historical dominance over CD UT Cajamarca make them clear favourites for this clash. With odds of 1.16, backing Alianza Lima to win offers solid value. Their potent attack has been in fine form, netting 10 goals in their last five matches, and they are unbeaten in their last eight encounters with Cajamarca.

• CD UT Cajamarca concede an average of 1.7 goals per match, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
• Alianza Lima have scored in 82% of their home matches this season, demonstrating their strong home form.
• Fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored in all eight matches between these teams over the past five seasons, indicating a pattern of low-scoring games.

Betting Odds

Alianza Lima are considered strong favourites in this matchup, with betting odds reflecting a dominant home advantage. CD UT Cajamarca, by contrast, are significant underdogs, with odds suggesting a tough outing for them.

Betting Tip	Odds
Alianza Lima to win	1.16
Draw	6.34
CD UT Cajamarca to win	13.77

For those looking to place a bet, the draw may offer some intrigue at 6.34, but the real value could be found in handicap markets or total goals, given Alianza Lima’s attacking strength at home.

Alianza Lima Analysis & Past Performance

Alianza Lima’s recent form in the Primera División has been solid, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Notably, they secured victories against Sport Boys and Sport Huancayo, showcasing their attacking prowess with a combined total of five goals in these fixtures.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Los Chankas	Alianza Lima	1 – 2 (Win)	Primera Division Clausura	5 Nov 2025
Alianza Lima	FBC Melgar	2 – 2 (Draw)	Primera Division Clausura	1 Nov 2025
Sport Huancayo	Alianza Lima	1 – 2 (Win)	Primera Division Clausura	20 Oct 2025
Alianza Lima	Sport Boys	3 – 1 (Win)	Primera Division Clausura	17 Oct 2025
Alianza Universidad	Alianza Lima	2 – 1 (Loss)	Primera Division Clausura	5 Oct 2025

Performance Analysis:
Alianza Lima have averaged 2.00 goals scored per match while conceding 1.40, indicating attacking efficiency but also highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. José Paolo Guerrero remains a key figure in their attack, netting six goals this season. However, their defence has struggled to keep clean sheets, failing to do so in any of their last five outings.

Their home form has been commendable, with a 60% win ratio over the last five home games, but they have also experienced defensive lapses, resulting in a 100% rate of both teams scoring. Currently positioned 4th in the league with 28 points, Alianza Lima’s ability to sustain pressure and capitalise on scoring opportunities will be crucial in their upcoming fixtures.

• WDWWL

Alianza Lima Suspensions & Injuries

Alianza Lima approach the upcoming match against CD UT Cajamarca with a relatively clean bill of health, though the absence of Juan Delgado due to a broken nose is a notable concern. Delgado’s injury leaves a gap in the team’s defensive options, potentially affecting their solidity at the back. His return date remains uncertain, which could pose challenges for coach Néstor Gorosito in maintaining a consistent defensive lineup.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Juan Delgado	Broken nose	Unknown

The team will likely rely on the depth of their squad to fill the void left by Delgado. Players such as Carlos Zambrano and Renzo Garcés, who have been regulars in defence, may see increased responsibilities. The tactical impact of Delgado’s absence might lead to a more conservative approach, ensuring the defence remains compact and less exposed.

From a betting perspective, while Alianza Lima still boast a strong lineup, Delgado’s unavailability could slightly influence predictions, especially in markets focusing on clean sheets and defensive solidity. The onus will be on the midfield and forward lines, led by José Paolo Guerrero, to maintain pressure and compensate for any defensive vulnerabilities.

Alianza Lima Key Players

Alianza Lima’s charge is spearheaded by their top scorer, José Paolo Guerrero, who has netted six goals this season. Guerrero’s prowess in the final third is pivotal, as his ability to find space and finish clinically under pressure offers a constant threat to any defence. His leadership and experience are invaluable assets, especially in tight matches.

In midfield, Fernando Gaibor and Pablo Ceppelini are integral to Alianza Lima’s tactical setup. Gaibor’s vision and passing range allow him to dictate play, while Ceppelini’s energy and creativity make him a dual threat, capable of both breaking up opposition attacks and launching forward movements. Their coordination will be essential in maintaining control against CD UT Cajamarca.

Expected lineup for Alianza Lima

• Goalkeeper: Angelo Campos
• Defenders: Marco Huamán, Carlos Zambrano, Gianfranco Chávez, Miguel Trauco
• Midfielders: Fernando Gaibor, Jesús Castillo, Pablo Ceppelini
• Forwards: Alan Cantero, Eryc Castillo, Paolo Guerrero

Defensively, Carlos Zambrano’s presence at the back is crucial for Alianza Lima. His physicality and aerial ability make him a formidable opponent for any forward, while his experience provides a calming influence on the defensive line. Alongside him, Miguel Trauco offers support not just in defence but also in transitioning play from the back, making the defence a key component of their overall strategy.

Alianza Lima Tactics and Formation

Alianza Lima Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: José Paolo Guerrero
• Midfield Pivot: Fernando Gaibor and Jesús Castillo
• Defensive Strength: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and reliance on wide players for creativity.

Alianza Lima’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation allows them to maintain a balanced approach between attack and defence. The midfield duo of Fernando Gaibor and Jesús Castillo provides stability, with Gaibor often initiating attacks from deep positions. The presence of Pablo Ceppelini as the central attacking midfielder offers a creative spark, linking play with wingers Kevin Quevedo and Eryc Castillo.

Defensively, the back four of Marco Huamán, Carlos Zambrano, Renzo Garcés, and Ricardo Lagos is tasked with maintaining a compact shape. Despite their efforts, the team has struggled to keep clean sheets, having conceded in all their last five outings, indicating potential vulnerabilities in defensive transitions.

Offensively, Alianza Lima’s strategy revolves around high pressing and quick ball recovery, aiming to exploit the pace and skill of their wide players. This approach often sees them create numerous chances, although it leaves them susceptible to counterattacks if possession is lost high up the pitch.

CD UT Cajamarca Analysis & Past Performance

CD UT Cajamarca’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches. Their most recent outing ended in a disappointing 0-3 defeat against Sport Huancayo, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in their defensive setup.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
CD UT Cajamarca	Sport Huancayo	0 – 3 (Loss)	Primera Division Clausura	9 Nov 2025
Sport Boys	CD UT Cajamarca	2 – 2 (Draw)	Primera Division Clausura	2 Nov 2025
CD UT Cajamarca	Alianza Universidad	3 – 2 (Win)	Primera Division Clausura	26 Oct 2025
Atletico Grau	CD UT Cajamarca	0 – 2 (Win)	Primera Division Clausura	19 Oct 2025
CD UT Cajamarca	Cienciano	0 – 2 (Loss)	Primera Division Clausura	13 Oct 2025

Recent Form:
Offensively, Cajamarca have averaged 1.40 goals per match over their last five games, demonstrating their capability to find the back of the net. However, defensively, they have been less secure, conceding an average of 1.80 goals per game, with only one clean sheet during this period, raising concerns about their defensive solidity.

In terms of away performance, CD UT Cajamarca have struggled, securing only one win, alongside two draws and two losses in their last five away fixtures. Their away win ratio stands at 20%, reflecting a significant area for improvement. Overall, they have scored in 7 out of their last 10 matches, yet their tendency to concede goals remains a critical issue, having allowed goals in 7 of these fixtures as well.

Currently positioned 18th in the league standings with 13 points, Cajamarca’s overall win ratio this season is just 23%, with 8 victories out of 35 matches. This places them in the lower echelons of the league, emphasising the need for tactical adjustments, especially in tightening their defensive lines while maintaining their attacking prowess led by top scorer Jarlin Quintero.

• LDWWL

CD UT Cajamarca Suspensions & Injuries

CD UT Cajamarca face a crucial test against Alianza Lima with a notable absence due to injury. Roberto Koichi Aparicio, a key player, is sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury and is expected to return in late December 2025. His absence could significantly impact Cajamarca’s defensive solidity, as Aparicio’s experience and leadership are vital components of their backline.

In Aparicio’s absence, responsibility will likely fall on José Luján, who has been part of the defensive setup in recent matches. While Luján has shown promise, matching Aparicio’s level of influence and stability will be a challenging task. This change may prompt coach Hernán Lisi to adopt a more conservative approach to compensate for potential vulnerabilities in defence.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Roberto Koichi Aparicio	Cruciate ligament injury	Late December 2025

With Aparicio out, CD UT Cajamarca may face difficulties maintaining their defensive organisation, potentially affecting their performance against a formidable Alianza Lima attack. Bettors should consider this defensive concern when assessing Cajamarca’s chances, as it could influence the match outcome and betting markets.

CD UT Cajamarca Key Players

CD UT Cajamarca’s attacking prowess is led by their top scorer, Jarlin Quintero, who has impressively netted 10 goals this season. Quintero’s dynamic playing style and ability to find the back of the net make him a constant threat to any defence. His presence up front is crucial, as he not only scores but also creates opportunities for his teammates.

Complementing Quintero is the midfield duo of Erinson Ramírez and Cristian Mejía. Ramírez’s creativity and Mejía’s control in the centre of the park provide the team with a balanced approach, enabling them to transition smoothly from defence to attack. In defence, José Luján and Yehider Ibargüen form a solid partnership, crucial in maintaining stability at the back. Their ability to read the game and intercept plays is vital in thwarting the opposition’s advances.

Expected lineup for CD UT Cajamarca:

• Goalkeeper: Diego Campos
• Defenders: Luis Garro, Joaquín Aguirre, Yehider Ibargüen, José Luján
• Midfielders: Freddy Oncoy, Erinson Ramírez, Piero Serra, Cristian Mejía, Juan Vega
• Forward: Jarlin Quintero

CD UT Cajamarca Tactics and Formation

CD UT Cajamarca Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-5-1
• Key Forward: Jarlin Quintero
• Midfield Focus: Freddy Oncoy and Cristian Mejía
• Defensive Concern: Conceded 9 goals in the last five matches
• Notable Strategy: Reliance on counter-attacks and set-pieces.

CD UT Cajamarca often line up in a 4-5-1 formation, a setup that aims to provide defensive solidity while allowing for quick transitions to attack. Jarlin Quintero, their top scorer with 10 goals, plays a pivotal role at the spearhead of the attack, supported by a five-man midfield that includes Freddy Oncoy and Cristian Mejía, who are crucial for both ball retention and distribution.

Defensively, Cajamarca have struggled, conceding 9 goals in their last five matches, with only one clean sheet. The defensive line, consisting of Luis Garro, Piero Serra, José Luján, and Yehider Ibargüen, needs to tighten up to prevent further leakage.

Offensively, the team tends to rely on counter-attacks and set-pieces, leveraging the pace of wingers such as Joaquín Aguirre and the creativity of Erinson Ramírez to create scoring opportunities. However, the team’s recent form shows inconsistency, which could be a significant disadvantage against strong opponents like Alianza Lima.

Alianza Lima vs CD UT Cajamarca Head-to-Head Record

Alianza Lima and CD UT Cajamarca have faced each other 29 times, with Alianza Lima holding the upper hand with 15 wins compared to Cajamarca’s 7, and 7 matches ending in a draw. Their last encounter was a goalless draw in the Liga 1 Apertura earlier this year, demonstrating how tight these contests can be.

In the Primera División, Alianza Lima have been particularly dominant, especially at home, where they’ve consistently edged out Cajamarca. This trend suggests Alianza Lima may have the psychological edge going into their next clash.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
CD UT Cajamarca	Alianza Lima	0 – 0	Liga 1 Opening Stage	2025-07-12
CD UT Cajamarca	Alianza Lima	0 – 1	Liga 1 Closing Stage	2024-10-18
Alianza Lima	CD UT Cajamarca	1 – 0	Liga 1 Opening Stage	2024-05-04
Alianza Lima	CD UT Cajamarca	1 – 0	Liga 1 Closing Stage	2023-08-06
CD UT Cajamarca	Alianza Lima	0 – 1	Liga 1 Opening Stage	2023-03-05