Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

The Champions League Quarter-Final second-legs are approaching, and with that, Sam Ingram has readied a Real Madrid vs Arsenal prediction preview ahead of the encounter that promises so much. 

Should Real Madrid be written off completely? The answer is an emphatic yes going off the display in the first leg, but write Real Madrid off at your peril.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction: They couldn’t, could they?

England, Premier League, Monday, March 30th, 20:00 (UK)

The market loves Arsenal. The Gunners kicked off at evens in the first leg with kick-off approaching, so Real Madrid might drift here. It could be an idea to wait this one out and take Real Madrid to win at a bigger price. 

The only game Arsenal have conceded over 2.0xG this season was against Manchester City at the Etihad when they were down to ten men from the end of the first half. Last season, in 2023/24, only one fixture saw Arsenal concede more than 2.0xG: vs Spurs in the 2-2 at The Emirates.

The last time Arsenal conceded more than two goals in a match was versus Luton Town last campaign on the 5th December 2023. Arsenal will be confident they can limit Real Madrid.

What Real Madrid needs to do against an excellent defensive outfit which has chopped and changed in terms of personnel, but it’s one that did perform well in the first leg – what they need to do and the size of the task ahead of them to qualify, it’s monumental. 

Arsenal have to ride out the initial 10-15 minute storm that is going to head their way at the Bernabeu. Do that, settle the crowd down, and put a nice chunk of doubt in their minds that 3-0 is a hurdle too big to overcome, and they should be okay. Actually, an interesting alternative bet is Arsenal GKs and Real Madrid Corners on bet365 in the first ten minutes. It’s 1.80 for a single Real Madrid corner, and a GK is 1.53, which can be paired quite nicely with something else in a bet builder.

Step too far? Write Real Madrid off at your peril

For Real Madrid to qualify, it looks like one step too far. The 6.50 To Qualify price also doesn’t represent how unlikely it is for them to score at least four goals without reply in 120 minutes or to win by a three-goal plus a penalty shootout win.

If you’re keen on taking a punt that they’ll qualify, then maybe the 3-0 Real Madrid offers a way in at a bigger price – 12/1 – which will be something to cheer on.

Personally, I’m going to take the hosts to win the game in 90 minutes. You’ll get that at 1.72 on the exchanges right now and 1.70 on bet365. It’s a price that might creep up as KO approaches. 

Real Madrid has to win; they score goals at home – they’ve scored a goal in 17 consecutive home matches, and we’ve seen them do the unexpected so many times in this competition.

The most important aspect of being pro-Real Madrid is that Arsenal fans, supporters, higher-ups, and everyone involved with the club would shake hands on a 0-2 defeat right now.

That makes a Real Madrid win too inviting for me not to back. It’s a spot I feel comfortable in, albeit there are signs Madrid are starting to wobble at a time in the season when they usually start to kick on. Their first-leg defeat was the fifth game they’ve lost in the Champions League this season, matching the most losses they’ve ever suffered in a single edition of the competition (2001).

There are reasons to doubt Madrid, but I’ll go for them to win the fixture, even if I think they won’t have enough to turn the tie around. Write Real Madrid off at your peril.

• Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction: Real Madrid Win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction odds via bet365 as at 07:46, September 15th April, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups

Kylian Mbappe’s nasty challenge in La Liga vs Deportivo Alaves has no impact on Wednesday evening’s Champions League clash fortunately for Real Madrid. His teammate, Camavinga, will miss out however after receiving a red card in the first leg. This season’s usual suspects in Militao, Carvajal and Mendy all miss out through injury for the home side.

Thomas Partey has picked up a knock according to Arsenal sources and will leave the midfield a little light after performing so well recently. Both Jorginho and Ben White find themselves in a race against time to be fit for the visit to Madrid. Jesus, Havertz, Gabriel and Calafiori are all expected to be absent.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Alaba; Tchouameni, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius; Mbappe

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Merino, Martinelli

Match OPTA Stats: Rarely eliminated at the Bernabeu

• Arsenal remain unbeaten against Real Madrid in European competition (W2 D1), and haven’t conceded a  single goal across their three meetings. The Gunners could become the first side ever to keep four  consecutive clean sheets against Los Blancos in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.  
• Real Madrid’s defeat at the Emirates Stadium was the fifth time they have lost the first leg of a knockout  stage tie in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League by 3+ goals, while they’ve been eliminated in the second leg in three of the previous four occasions (the exception being against Derby County in the last 16 in 1975-76, winning 6-5 on aggregate after a 1-4 defeat in the first leg). 
• Across the 53 games that Real Madrid have played against English sides in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, they’ve managed to win by more than three goals on just two previous occasions: 5-1 v Derby County in 1975-76 (last 16) and 4-0 v Tottenham Hotspur in 2010-11 (quarter-final).  
• Since the start of the 2015-16 season, this will be the 16th time that Real Madrid have played the second  leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie at home. Of the previous 15, they’ve only been  eliminated on one occasion (v Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19), and progressed from the last eight in a row. 

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