Dundalk -0.75 (AH)
In this Irish Premier Division encounter, while the outright odds might not scream value, the probability of an away victory for the league leaders, Dundalk, appears overwhelmingly strong for this Matchday 13 fixture. I'll keep my fingers crossed that their impressive unbeaten streak remains intact!
The contrast in recent form, both overall and in specific scenarios, heavily favors the table-toppers. The home side has struggled at their own ground, managing only one victory in their last five home matches and entering this game on the back of two draws and two defeats. In stark comparison, Dundalk's away form has been exceptional, securing four victories and one draw in their last five games on the road.
Extending the analysis to their last ten matches further emphasizes this disparity. The home team has only managed to secure two wins, while Dundalk has been dominant, recording an impressive seven victories and three draws. This consistent excellence underscores Dundalk's strong momentum and ability to consistently secure positive results.
Furthermore, the defensive records of the two sides paint a clear picture. The home team's defense has been consistently leaky, conceding goals in a staggering 90% of their matches, with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per game. Conversely, Dundalk's attack has been consistently potent, scoring at least one goal in every match and averaging a healthy 1.8 goals per game.
Considering the comprehensive statistical evidence – Dundalk's unbeaten run, superior away form, significantly better overall form, and the home team's defensive vulnerabilities against Dundalk's consistent scoring – I am strongly convinced that the visitors will secure a clear victory in this match. The weight of the data points decisively towards a comfortable away win for the league leaders.