Atlas vs. Toluca Prediction, Match Preview, and Betting Tips, 1 November 2025

On 1 November 2025, the Estadio Jalisco will host a Liga MX showdown between Atlas and the league leaders Toluca. The match kicks off at 23:00 and promises to be an intriguing clash between two sides at opposite ends of the table.

Toluca, the bookmaker’s favorite, sit comfortably at the top of the standings with 33 points and an unbeaten run in their last five matches. Their robust form, spearheaded by top scorer Paulinho, who has netted 11 times this season, makes them a formidable opponent. A recommended bet, given their dominance and history against Atlas, is for Toluca to win.

On the other hand, Atlas, currently positioned 12th with 16 points, have had an inconsistent season, marked by mixed results and significant injuries, including Mauro Manotas and Edgar Zaldivar. Despite their inconsistencies, Atlas has shown resilience, especially at home, and will rely heavily on Uros Djurdjevic, their leading scorer.

The history between these two sides shows Toluca’s dominance, having won three of the last five encounters. With both teams having a lot at stake, expect a thrilling battle under the lights at Estadio Jalisco.

Atlas vs Toluca Prediction & Betting tip

Atlas vs Toluca Prediction
Betting tip
Toluca to Win – Odds: 1.58

Toluca to Win is our recommended tip, given their stellar form and historical dominance over Atlas. Currently, league leaders with 33 points, Toluca showcases form that merits their status as favorites. Their recent performances underline this, featuring an impressive unbeaten streak and an average of 2.6 goals scored in the last five games.

• Toluca top the Liga MX standings with 33 points and are unbeaten in their last five games.
• They have an excellent head-to-head record against Atlas, winning three of the last five encounters.
• Atlas has struggled with inconsistency, securing only three wins in their last 13 league matches and facing significant injuries.

Atlas vs Toluca Odds

Toluca heads into this matchup as the clear favorite, reflecting their top-of-the-table status and consistent performance throughout the season. The bookmaker odds highlight this, with Toluca’s odds of securing a victory standing at 1.58. Given their current form and superior head-to-head record over Atlas, these odds underscore Toluca’s prospects of extending their dominance.

Atlas, positioned 12th, faces an uphill battle with odds of 4.58 for a home win, reflecting their inconsistent form and recent injury struggles. The possibility of a draw is priced at 4.21, but given Toluca’s firepower, even sharing points could be a tough ask for Atlas.

Atlas vs Toluca Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Atlas to Win	4.58
Draw	4.21
Toluca to Win	1.58

Given these odds, it’s clear that betting on Toluca to win offers a promising return, considering their unbeaten streak and goal-scoring prowess.

Atlas Team Analysis

Atlas Recent Performance: WWLWL

Atlas’s recent form has been a mixed bag with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. They managed a solid 2-0 victory against Leon and a 3-1 win over FC Juarez, but suffered defeats against CD Guadalajara (4-1), Atletico de San Luis (2-0), and Necaxa (3-2).

In these games, they’ve scored an average of 1.80 goals per match, while defensively, keeping just one clean sheet. Their offensive output is led by Uros Djurdjevic, who has netted seven times this season, providing a glimmer of hope for Atlas.

However, inconsistency remains a concern as they sit 12th in the standings with 16 points. Injuries to key players like Mauro Manotas and Edgar Zaldivar further complicate their campaign. Entering this match, sustaining their recent home form will be crucial.

Atlas Key Players

Atlas will heavily rely on their top scorer, Uros Djurdjevic, who has netted seven goals this season and will be essential in breaking down Toluca’s solid defense. Another key player is Aldo Rocha, whose midfield dynamism and leadership provide stability in both attack and defense.

Defensively, Matheus Doria will be tasked with keeping Toluca’s forwards, particularly Paulinho, at bay. This matchup could be the defining battle of the game, as Doria’s experience will be crucial in combating Toluca’s potent attack.

In terms of creativity and link-up play, Diego Gonzalez’s role as an attacking midfielder will be vital. His ability to unlock defenses and provide key passes could be the difference maker.

Expected lineup for Atlas:

• Goalkeeper: Camilo Vargas
• Defenders: Gaddi Aguirre, Matheus Doria, Adrian Mora
• Midfielders: Gustavo Ferrareis, Paulo Ramírez, Aldo Rocha, Sergio Hernandez, Diego Gonzalez, Mateo Ezequiel Garcia
• Forward: Uros Djurdjevic

Atlas Suspensions & Injuries

Atlas is dealing with several significant injuries that could impact their performance against Toluca. Key players Mauro Manotas and Edgar Zaldivar are sidelined with cruciate ligament injuries, expected to return only in early January 2026. These absences will undoubtedly weaken Atlas’s forward and midfield options.

Additionally, Carlos Cruz, who also suffered a cruciate ligament injury, is eyeing an early November return, but his availability remains uncertain. Rivaldo Lozano’s hamstring injury and Antonio Sanchez’s eye injury further exacerbate the scenario, making them doubtful for the clash.

The combination of these injuries presents a considerable challenge for Coach Diego Cocca when it comes to assembling a competitive lineup capable of staving off Toluca’s attacking threats. Atlas will need to dig deep into their squad and rely on their depth to cope with these critical absences.

Atlas Tactics and Formation

Atlas Tactics and Formation Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Uros Djurdjevic
• Midfield Strength: The midfield is orchestrated by Aldo Rocha and supported by Gustavo Ferrareis and Diego Gonzalez on the flanks.
• Defensive Core: Matheus Doria and Adrian Mora form the heart of the three-man defense, with goalkeeper Camilo Vargas providing leadership at the back.

Atlas’s tactical approach under Coach Diego Cocca revolves around a solid defensive setup combined with quick transitions. Their 3-4-2-1 formation allows them to have flexibility both in defense and attack, utilizing wing-backs for width and adding numbers midfield.

A key tactical element for Atlas will be to exploit any space left by Toluca’s attacking play. Their main strategy often involves targeting the channels during the 61-75-minute intervals, where they have been effective.

Expected Lineup for Atlas:

• Goalkeeper: Camilo Vargas
• Defenders: Gaddi Aguirre, Matheus Doria, Adrian Mora
• Midfielders: Gustavo Ferrareis, Paulo Ramírez, Aldo Rocha, Sergio Hernandez, Diego Gonzalez, Mateo Ezequiel Garcia
• Forward: Uros Djurdjevic

With their current injury woes, Atlas will need to be defensively resilient and capitalize on their chances to gain an edge.

Toluca Team Analysis

Toluca Recent Performance:

Toluca has been in outstanding form, going unbeaten in their last five matches. Their recent performance includes three consecutive wins followed by two draws, showcasing their consistency and resilience. Toluca’s victories over Queretaro FC (4-0) and Leon (4-2) highlight their potent attack, which has averaged 2.6 goals per game in this period.

Defensively, Toluca has also been robust, securing two clean sheets in their last five games. Their defensive stability, coupled with a prolific attack led by Paulinho, has solidified their position at the top of the Liga MX standings with 33 points.

This impressive run of form, both in attack and defense, sets Toluca up well to continue their dominance against Atlas. With their confidence high, Toluca aims to extend their unbeaten streak and maintain their lead in the competition.

Toluca Key Players

Toluca’s formidable squad is headlined by Paulinho, the league’s top scorer with 11 goals. His presence up front will be essential in breaking down Atlas’s defense. Another crucial player is Alexis Vega, whose creative midfield play, alongside Nicolas Castro, drives Toluca’s attacking engine.

Defensively, the pairing of Bruno Méndez and Federico Pereira has been solid, contributing to their recent clean sheets. Méndez, known for his aerial prowess, will have a key role in neutralizing Atlas’s set-piece threats.

In terms of individual battles, pay close attention to Paulinho against Atlas’s Matheus Doria. This clash between a prolific striker and a seasoned defender could be a defining feature of the game.

Expected lineup for Toluca:

• Goalkeeper: Luis Garcia
• Defenders: Santiago Simon, Bruno Méndez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo
• Midfielders: Franco Romero, Nicolas Castro, Marcel Ruiz, Robert Morales, Jesus Angulo
• Forward: Paulinho

Toluca Suspensions & Injuries

For this matchup against Atlas, Toluca is relatively fortunate in terms of player availability. The only significant absence is Luan, who is sidelined with a groin injury and is expected to return in early January 2026. This injury limits Toluca’s options in defense.

Despite Luan’s absence, Toluca’s squad depth has been one of their strengths this season. Coach Antonio Mohamed will still have a strong pool of players to select from, ensuring that the team’s tactical flexibility and overall strength are maintained.

The injuries that Atlas is facing could give Toluca an additional advantage, as the league leaders aim to capitalize on their opponent’s weakened lineup.

Toluca Tactics and Formation

Toluca Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Paulinho
• Midfield Trio: Franco Romero, Nicolas Castro, Marcel Ruiz
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and quick transitions

Toluca’s 4-2-3-1 formation allows for fluidity and balance between attacking and defensive duties. With Paulinho leading the line, supported by the creative room of Marcel Ruiz, Robert Morales, and Jesus Angulo, Toluca have a potent offensive setup.

The midfield duo of Franco Romero and Nicolas Castro provides a solid base, enabling quick transitions that exploit spaces left by opposing defenses. Defensively, Bruno Méndez and Federico Pereira have been rock-solid, significantly contributing to their recent clean sheets.

Coach Antonio Mohamed is likely to utilize Toluca’s high pressing and rapid counter-attacks, especially during critical intervals, such as the 61-75-minute marks, where their attacking prowess often peaks.

Expected lineup for Toluca:

• Goalkeeper: Luis Garcia
• Defenders: Santiago Simon, Bruno Méndez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo
• Midfielders: Franco Romero, Nicolas Castro, Marcel Ruiz, Robert Morales, Jesus Angulo
• Forward: Paulinho

Atlas vs Toluca Head-to-Head Statistics

The recent head-to-head encounters between Atlas and Toluca paint a clear picture of Toluca’s dominance. In their last five matchups, Toluca has emerged victorious in three, with the remaining two ending in draws. Notably, the most recent clash saw Toluca edging out Atlas in a thrilling 3-2 win earlier this year in April.

Here’s a closer look at their last five encounters:

• 13 April 2025: Atlas 2-3 Toluca (Liga MX Clausura)
• 28 September 2024: Toluca 4-1 Atlas (Liga MX Apertura)
• 7 April 2024: Toluca 4-1 Atlas (Liga MX Clausura)
• 26 August 2023: Atlas 0-0 Toluca (Liga MX Apertura)
• 2 February 2023: Atlas 0-0 Toluca (Liga MX Clausura)

This record highlights Toluca’s attacking prowess, scoring ten goals in the last three wins. Given this trend and Atlas’s inconsistent form, expect another competitive fixture with Toluca likely looking to maintain their winning streak.

Odds accurate as of 30 October 2025, 23:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.