Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Match Preview, Saturday, 14 February

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Match Preview, Saturday, 14 February. As we look ahead to this Eredivisie clash, Excelsior will host AZ Alkmaar at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. This match is set to kick off on Saturday, 14 February, and promises to be an intriguing encounter in the Dutch top flight. Both teams will be eager to secure valuable points as the season progresses.

Excelsior, playing at home, will aim to use their familiarity with the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to challenge AZ Alkmaar, who have been strong contenders in the Eredivisie. AZ Alkmaar, renowned for their attacking prowess, will look to continue their push towards the top of the league standings. This matchup is significant as both teams strive to achieve their respective season goals.

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
AZ Alkmaar to Win	1.99

Given the current form and statistical trends, our recommended betting tip is to back AZ Alkmaar to win. Despite a few key absences, AZ have shown resilience and a consistent scoring ability throughout the season, making them the favourites in this fixture.

• AZ Alkmaar have scored in 95% of their matches this season, indicating a strong offensive presence.
• Excelsior have struggled to find the net, especially with their leading forward scoring only twice in 22 appearances.
• AZ Alkmaar’s recent head-to-head dominance, including a 4-0 victory in their last visit, suggests they can handle Excelsior even away from home.

Betting Odds

In this Eredivisie clash, AZ Alkmaar are stepping onto the pitch as the favourites with odds of 1.99, reflecting their strong form this season. Excelsior, playing at home, are priced at 3.37, which could tempt those looking for a potential upset.

Betting Tip	Odds
Excelsior to win	3.37
Draw	3.69
AZ Alkmaar to win	1.99

The draw is also an interesting prospect at 3.69, especially considering Excelsior’s knack for grinding out results at home. For punters, exploring the over 2.5 goals market might be worthwhile, given both teams’ attacking capabilities.

Excelsior Analysis & Past Performance

Excelsior’s recent form has been steady, with the team drawing four of their last five matches, including notable stalemates against Ajax and AZ Alkmaar. Their only victory came in a convincing 2-0 win over NAC Breda, highlighting their potential when they find rhythm in attack.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
NAC Breda	Excelsior	0 – 2 (Win)	Eredivisie	6 Feb 2026
Excelsior	Ajax	2 – 2 (Draw)	Eredivisie	1 Feb 2026
Twente	Excelsior	0 – 0 (Draw)	Eredivisie	24 Jan 2026
AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	1 – 1 (Draw)	Eredivisie	21 Jan 2026
Excelsior	Telstar	2 – 2 (Draw)	Eredivisie	17 Jan 2026

Recent Form:

• WDDDD

Excelsior have been consistent yet unspectacular, averaging 1.40 goals scored per game while conceding an average of 1.00 across their last five fixtures. Their defence has managed two clean sheets, suggesting intermittent defensive solidity. However, with a win ratio of just 20%, their inability to convert draws into wins is a point of concern. At home, they have been slightly stronger with a 40% win ratio, which could provide a slight edge.

Excelsior Suspensions & Injuries

Excelsior face a significant challenge with the absence of Noah Naujoks due to an unspecified injury. His unknown return date leaves a void in the attacking midfield, which could affect their creativity and transitional play. Naujoks has been a pivotal link between midfield and attack, and his absence may force coach Ruben den Uil to rely on alternative strategies to maintain offensive momentum.

In Naujoks’ absence, the responsibility may fall on players like Lennard Hartjes or Gyan de Regt to step up and fill the creative gap. While both players have shown promise, they lack the experience and vision that Naujoks brings to the pitch. This could lead to a more conservative approach from Excelsior, potentially impacting their ability to break down AZ Alkmaar’s defence.

Player	Injury Status	Expected Return
Noah Naujoks	Unknown	Unknown

With the injury to Naujoks, there might be an inclination to adjust the formation slightly, possibly incorporating a more robust midfield to compensate for the lack of an attacking pivot. This tactical shift could influence the betting markets, with odds potentially favouring a lower-scoring game due to Excelsior’s diminished attacking options.

Excelsior Key Players

Excelsior will heavily rely on their attacking prowess despite the absence of their top scorer Noah Naujoks, who has netted six goals this season. With Naujoks unavailable, Emil Hansson will be expected to step up in the forward line. His ability to find space and create scoring opportunities will be crucial against AZ Alkmaar’s defence. Hansson’s performance could be pivotal in influencing the outcome of the match.

In midfield, Lewis Schouten and Lennard Hartjes are key figures, tasked with controlling the tempo and breaking down opposition plays. Schouten’s defensive capabilities combined with Hartjes’s distribution skills form a balanced midfield partnership that can both protect the backline and facilitate forward movements. In defence, Casper Widell’s leadership and composure will be essential in organising the back four and thwarting AZ’s attacking threats.

Expected lineup for Excelsior

• Goalkeeper: Stijn van Gassel
• Defence: Ilias Bronkhorst, Casper Widell, Rick Meissen, Arthur Zagre
• Midfield: Lewis Schouten, Lennard Hartjes, Irakli Yegoian
• Forward: Gyan de Regt, Emil Hansson, Noah Naujoks

Excelsior Tactics and Formation

Excelsior Tactical Breakdown:

• Recent Formation: 4-5-1
• Key Forward: Noah Naujoks (injured)
• Midfield Pivot: Lewis Schouten and Lennard Hartjes
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Possession-based play with focus on midfield control.

Excelsior have been adopting a 4-5-1 formation, which emphasises midfield dominance and ball retention. The absence of key forward Noah Naujoks due to injury means a tactical shift might be necessary, potentially pushing Emil Hansson into a more advanced role. Lewis Schouten and Lennard Hartjes are pivotal in maintaining balance between defence and attack.

Defensively, the team has shown resilience, recording two clean sheets in the last five matches. The backline, featuring Ilias Bronkhorst and Rick Meissen, is tasked with maintaining a compact structure, which has been crucial in limiting opposition chances.

Offensively, Excelsior rely on a possession-based approach, often orchestrated through the midfield. This strategy aims to control the tempo of the game, though the absence of Naujoks may affect their ability to convert possession into goals, necessitating increased creativity from the midfield and wide areas.

AZ Alkmaar Analysis & Past Performance

AZ Alkmaar have experienced a mixed bag of results recently, with their last five matches resulting in two wins, two draws, and one loss. Their latest fixture was a 1-1 draw against Ajax, where they managed to maintain 38% possession and registered 13 shots to Ajax’s 12.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
AZ Alkmaar	Ajax	1 – 1 (Draw)	Eredivisie	8 Feb 2026
AZ Alkmaar	Twente	1 – 1 (Extra time: 1 – 0) (Win)	KNVB Cup	3 Feb 2026
AZ Alkmaar	NEC Nijmegen	1 – 3 (Loss)	Eredivisie	31 Jan 2026
Telstar	AZ Alkmaar	0 – 1 (Win)	Eredivisie	25 Jan 2026
AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	1 – 1 (Draw)	Eredivisie	21 Jan 2026

Recent Form:
AZ Alkmaar’s attacking prowess has been steady, averaging 1.20 goals per game over their last five matches, with Troy Parrott leading the charge, scoring 11 goals this season. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 1.20 goals per match, highlighting a need for greater solidity at the back. Notably, they have achieved just one clean sheet in this period, which underscores an area for improvement.

Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have shown resilience, winning three out of their last five away fixtures, translating to a 60% win ratio on the road. Despite their fifth-place standing last season, they currently occupy seventh in the league with 33 points, striving for consistency to climb the table. Their ability to score in both home and away games, albeit with a goals-conceded average of 1.30 in their last ten matches, suggests a team that can be both threatening and vulnerable.

• DWLWD

AZ Alkmaar Suspensions & Injuries

AZ Alkmaar face significant challenges due to the absence of key players like Jordy Clasie and Mexx Meerdink, both doubtful with recent injuries. Clasie’s overload issue and Meerdink’s groin injury could disrupt the midfield’s stability and forward momentum. Denso Kasius and Sven Mijnans are also expected to miss out, leaving AZ Alkmaar’s defensive options thin. The potential absence of Kees Smit adds further uncertainty, particularly in central areas where depth is already tested.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Peer Koopmeiners	Yellow cards	1	Unknown

Peer Koopmeiners’ suspension for accumulated yellow cards is another blow, as his presence in midfield often provides a crucial balance between defence and attack. This could force coach Leeroy Echteld to rethink his midfield strategy, perhaps leaning on players like Kasper Boogaard to fill the gap and maintain their tactical shape.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Jordy Clasie	Fatigue	Doubtful
Mexx Meerdink	Groin strain	Doubtful
Denso Kasius	Ankle knock	Few days
Sven Mijnans	Hamstring strain	Few days
Kees Smit	Unknown	About a week

The cumulative effect of these absences may necessitate a tactical shift, possibly adopting a more conservative approach to counterbalance the lack of regular starters. This situation poses a significant test for AZ Alkmaar, both in terms of squad depth and adaptability, potentially influencing betting markets as they face Excelsior.

AZ Alkmaar Key Players

Troy Parrott stands out as AZ Alkmaar’s top scorer with 11 goals, playing a pivotal role in their attack. Parrott’s ability to find the back of the net consistently makes him a key threat to Excelsior’s defence. His knack for positioning and timing his runs will be crucial in breaking down the opposition. Alongside Parrott, Isak Jensen and Ro-Zangelo Daal are expected to provide additional firepower up front, with their pace and dribbling skills capable of unlocking defences.

In midfield, Weslley Patati and Kasper Boogaard are essential for dictating the pace of the game. Patati’s vision and ability to deliver key passes can create goal-scoring opportunities, while Boogaard’s work rate ensures that AZ Alkmaar maintain control in the central areas. Defensively, the presence of Wouter Goes and Alexandre Penetra is vital. Their solid partnership at the back provides stability and protection for goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet, who will be looking to maintain a clean sheet.

Expected lineup for AZ Alkmaar:

• Goalkeeper: Jeroen Zoet
• Defence: Seiya Maikuma, Wouter Goes, Alexandre Penetra, Mees de Wit
• Midfield: Weslley Patati, Kasper Boogaard, Matej Sin
• Forward: Isak Jensen, Ro-Zangelo Daal, Troy Parrott

AZ Alkmaar Tactics and Formation

AZ Alkmaar Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Troy Parrott
• Midfield Pivot: Matej Sin and Kasper Boogaard
• Defensive Strength: Struggled with consistency, conceding in four of the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on quick transitions and exploiting wide areas.

AZ Alkmaar have predominantly utilised a 4-2-3-1 formation, which facilitates both defensive cover and offensive support. The midfield pivot of Matej Sin and Kasper Boogaard aims to provide a balance between breaking up opposition play and initiating forward movements.

Offensively, Troy Parrott leads the line as the key forward, supported by Peer Koopmeiners and Ro-Zangelo Daal, who are adept at creating chances from the wings. This setup allows AZ Alkmaar to utilise the flanks effectively, aiming to stretch the opposition defence and create scoring opportunities.

Defensively, the side has struggled to maintain clean sheets, conceding in four out of the last five matches. The absence of key players like Seiya Maikuma and Jordy Clasie due to injuries compounds this issue, potentially necessitating tactical adjustments to bolster their backline.

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head Record

In their head-to-head record, AZ Alkmaar have a clear advantage over Excelsior with 14 wins to Excelsior’s six, and nine matches ending in a draw. Their most recent encounter in the Eredivisie ended in a 1-1 draw, showing that Excelsior can hold their own against AZ at times.

The last time these two met at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, it also ended in a 1-1 draw. This suggests that Excelsior can be quite resilient at home, even against a strong side like AZ Alkmaar. Historically, AZ have dominated the fixture, but recent results indicate the potential for a tighter contest.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	League	Date
AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	1 – 1	Eredivisie	2026-01-21
AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	8 – 0	Friendly Match	2024-07-13
AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	4 – 0	Eredivisie	2024-03-10
Excelsior	AZ Alkmaar	1 – 1	Eredivisie	2023-11-04
AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	5 – 0	Eredivisie	2023-02-10