Bahia vs. Gremio Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 20 October 2025

The 29th round of Serie A sees Bahia take on Gremio in what promises to be an intriguing contest. As the league’s home stretch approaches, Bahia, currently in 6th place with 43 points, will be eager to strengthen their position against 11th-placed Gremio, who have accumulated 36 points.

Bahia come into this match as slight favourites, especially given their strong home performances, like the recent victory over Flamengo. Additionally, Bahia boasts a more stable form (Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss) despite inconsistencies and will look to solidify their place in the top-tier competition spots.

Gremio, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, highlighted by their patchy form (Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win). Key injuries, such as the season-ending Achilles tendon injury to top scorer Martin Braithwaite, will likely hamper their offensive threat.

Considering the recent performances and home advantage, a recommended bet is "Bahia Draw No Bet" at odds of 1.85, offering a safety net against a draw outcome. This match is set to be a fascinating watch for football enthusiasts as the season’s climax approaches.

Bahia vs Gremio Prediction & Betting Tip

Bahia vs Gremio Prediction
Betting tip
Bahia Draw No Bet – Odds: 1.85

Following a notable victory over Flamengo, Bahia will look to capitalize on their home ground advantage. Bahia’s recent form and solid performance at Arena Fonte Nova establish them as slight favourites.

• Bahia’s impressive home victory against Flamengo underscores their strength at Arena Fonte Nova.
• They have a favourable head-to-head record against Gremio, winning two of the last three encounters at home.
• Gremio’s inconsistent away form and significant injury absences, including top scorer Martin Braithwaite, give Bahia the upper hand.

The "Draw No Bet" market offers security if the match ends in a draw, making it a prudent betting choice given the circumstances. This clash is essential for both teams as they seek to solidify their positions as the Serie A season approaches its climax.

Bahia vs Gremio Odds

The odds for the upcoming clash between Bahia and Gremio highlight the home team’s slight advantage, given their stronger recent performances and home-field prowess. The bookmakers have favoured Bahia, but odds for Gremio and a draw also present intriguing opportunities for bettors.

Bahia vs Gremio Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Bahia	1.72
Draw	3.59
Gremio	4.72

With Bahia coming off a significant win against Flamengo at home, the odds of 1.72 reflect their potential to secure another victory. A draw, priced at 3.59, is a sensible consideration due to both teams’ inconsistent form. Meanwhile, Gremio, with odds of 4.72, could provide value for risk-takers despite their challenges, particularly away from home. Bettors should weigh these factors carefully when placing their bets.

Bahia Team Analysis

Bahia Recent Performance (Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss)

Bahia’s recent form has been a mixed bag, reflecting inconsistency:

• Vitoria 2 – 1 Bahia (Loss)
• Bahia 1 – 0 Flamengo (Win)
• Botafogo RJ 2 – 1 Bahia (Loss)
• Bahia 1 – 0 Palmeiras (Win)
• Vasco da Gama 3 – 1 Bahia (Loss)

Recent Form: Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss

Despite the alternating results, Bahia have shown moments of brilliance, especially at home. Their victory against Flamengo demonstrates their resilience. In the last five matches, Bahia managed an average of 1 goal per game and kept 2 clean sheets. Defensively, they concede about 1.2 goals per game.

Upcoming home matches, including their next one against Internacional, provide further opportunities to cement their standing. Head coach Rogério Ceni will aim to iron out these inconsistencies and leverage their home ground advantage to secure crucial points in the season’s final stretch.

Bahia Key Players

Bahia’s recent success at home can be attributed to key performances by their standout players. Leading the pack is Willian Jose, the team’s top scorer with 5 goals this season. His presence at centre-forward will be crucial against Gremio’s defence.

In midfield, Nicolás Acevedo and Jean Lucas add both defensive and offensive support, creating a well-rounded engine room. Their ability to control the tempo and break up opposition plays will be vital.

Expected lineup for Bahia:

• Goalkeeper: Ronaldo
• Defenders: Gilberto, David Duarte, Gabriel Xavier, Iago
• Midfielders: Rezende, Jean Lucas, Nicolás Acevedo
• Forwards: Ademir Santos, Willian Jose, Mateo Sanabria

Pay close attention to the battles on the flanks where Ademir Santos and Mateo Sanabria will look to exploit Gremio’s full-backs. Their interactions with Bahia’s midfield could significantly sway the game’s momentum. All eyes will be on Bahia’s tactical execution as they aim to leverage their key players’ strengths.

Bahia Suspensions & Injuries

Bahia will be navigating this fixture without several key players due to injuries, which may impact their squad depth and strategic options. Notable absentees include:

• Erick Carvalho (Thigh injury)
• Caio Alexandre (Thigh injury, potential return in late October 2025)
• Erick Pulga (Thigh injury, out for a few weeks)
• João Paulo (Knee injury, potential return in late October 2025)
• Santi Ramos Mingo (Thigh injury, potential return in late October 2025)
• Luciano Juba (Thigh injury, potential return in late October 2025)
• Everton Ribeiro (Cancer, potential return in early November 2025)

These injuries particularly weaken Bahia’s defensive options, with several defenders sidelined, which could place greater responsibility on Gilberto and Iago to step up. Despite these challenges, head coach Rogério Ceni will need to rely on the depth and versatility of his squad to navigate this critical match.

Bahia Tactics and Formation

For this matchup, head coach Rogério Ceni is expected to deploy a 4-3-3 formation, aiming for a balanced approach with a mix of offensive and defensive stability.

Bahia Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Willian Jose, the team’s top scorer with 5 goals, will lead the attack.
• Midfield Trio: Rezende, Jean Lucas, Nicolás Acevedo offer both defensive cover and playmaking potential.
• Defensive Strength: Notably, Bahia have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 games.
• Notable Strategy: Focus on a solid start and finish strong. Historically, Bahia concedes most goals in the 76-90 minute interval, indicating a need for defensive concentration towards the game’s end.

This setup capitalizes on their home advantage, with wing play from Ademir Santos and Mateo Sanabria aiming to stretch Gremio’s defence, while maintaining a robust midfield core to control the game’s tempo.

Gremio Team Analysis

Gremio Recent Performance (Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win)

Gremio’s recent performance has shown a mix of results:

• Gremio 2 – 0 Sao Paulo (Win)
• Red Bull Bragantino 1 – 0 Gremio (Loss)
• Santos FC 1 – 1 Gremio (Draw)
• Gremio 3 – 1 Vitoria (Win)
• Gremio 1 – 1 Botafogo RJ (Draw)

Recent Form: Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win

Despite their fluctuating form, Gremio has managed to score well, averaging 1.40 goals per game over the last five matches. However, their defence has struggled, keeping only 1 clean sheet in these games. Injuries to key players, including top scorer Martin Braithwaite, have also hampered their consistency.

With key matches ahead, such as against Juventude, head coach Mano Menezes will need to address these inconsistencies. Gremio’s ability to perform under these challenging conditions will be critical as they attempt to climb the Serie A table.

Gremio Key Players

With a mix of experienced and emerging talent, Gremio will rely on several key players to navigate this tricky fixture. Despite notable absences, such as top scorer Martin Braithwaite with 6 goals, other squad members will need to step up.

Carlos Vinicius, leading the frontline in Braithwaite’s absence, will be pivotal in finding the back of the net. In midfield, Edenilson and Gustavo Cuellar provide the dual role of dictating play and forming a defensive shield.

Expected lineup for Gremio:

• Goalkeeper: Gabriel Grando
• Defenders: Marcos Rocha, Erick Noriega, Walter Kannemann, Marlon
• Midfielders: Arthur, Gustavo Cuellar, Edenilson
• Forwards: Cristian Pavon, Carlos Vinicius, Francis Amuzu

The battle on the wings between Cristian Pavon and Bahia’s full-backs will be crucial. Pavon’s pace and trickery could stretch the Bahia defence, while Gremio’s midfield trio aims to control the game’s tempo.

Gremio Suspensions & Injuries

Gremio will face Bahia with a series of significant absences, which heavily affect their squad depth and on-field strategies. Key players sidelined include:

• Rodrigo Ely (Cruciate ligament injury, return mid-December 2025)
• Miguel Monsalve (Dislocated shoulder, return in 1-2 weeks)
• Mathías Villasanti (Cruciate ligament injury, out for the season)
• Fabian Balbuena (Broken ankle, return early December 2025)
• Martin Braithwaite (Achilles tendon injury, out for the season)
• Joao Pedro (Shoulder injury, out for the season)
• Tiago Volpi (Muscle injury, return in 1-2 weeks)
• Willian (Broken foot, return mid-November 2025)
• Alexander Aravena (Muscle injury, return in a few days)
• Alysson Edward (Muscle injury, doubtful)

Additionally, Dodi is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, further reducing their midfield options.

These absences place extra pressure on the available squad members and will test Gremio’s resilience and adaptability as they look to secure points away from home.

Gremio Tactics and Formation

Heading into this clash, head coach Mano Menezes is expected to set up Gremio in a 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming to balance defense and counter-attacking opportunities.

Gremio Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Carlos Vinicius, tasked with leading the line in the absence of top scorer Martin Braithwaite.
• Midfield Trio: Edenilson, Gustavo Cuellar, and Arthur, focusing on ball control and breaking up opposition play.
• Defensive Strength: Gremio have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 5 matches, which highlights an area needing improvement.
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on quick transitions and exploiting spaces on the flanks, aiming to stretch Bahia’s defence.

Despite the numerous injuries and suspensions, Gremio’s tactical setup will focus on leveraging midfield dominance and counter-attacks to outmaneuver Bahia’s defence, aiming to exploit any lapses late in the game when Bahia has shown vulnerability.

Bahia vs Gremio Head-to-Head Statistics

Analyzing the last five encounters between Bahia and Gremio provides interesting insights into their match history:

• Gremio 1 – 0 Bahia (2025-05-25, Serie A)
• Gremio 0 – 2 Bahia (2024-08-17, Serie A)
• Bahia 1 – 0 Gremio (2024-04-28, Serie A)
• Gremio 1 – 0 Bahia (2023-11-04, Serie A)
• Gremio 1 – 1 Bahia (Penalty shoot-out: 4 – 3, 2023-07-12, Cup)

Recent Form: Bahia sees a slight edge, winning two out of the last three encounters.

• Bahia has outperformed Gremio, especially in recent meetings, winning two of the last three games.
• Gremio’s last win over Bahia was a narrow 1-0 victory in May 2025.

This head-to-head record indicates a competitive dynamic, with Bahia having the upper hand in recent years. Gremio will need to overcome this trend to collect vital points in this fixture.

Odds accurate as of 18th October 2025 at 00:31, and are subject to change.
Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.