Mainz 05 vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 17 May 2025 - bettingexpert
In what promises to be a nail-biting finish to the Bundesliga season, Mainz 05 will host Bayer Leverkusen at the MEWA Arena on 17 May 2025 at 14:30. Mainz 05 currently sits 6th in the table with 51 points, while Bayer Leverkusen is 2nd with 68 points. A victory here could solidify Mainz’s position in the European places, while Leverkusen will aim to maintain their grip on the runner-up spot.
Both teams have had contrasting paths this season. Mainz has been inconsistent, as suggested by their recent form of WDLDL in their last five matches. On the other hand, Bayer Leverkusen’s form shows LDWDD, indicating they’ve been tough to beat lately.
Key players for both sides include Mainz’s Jonathan Burkardt, who has netted 17 goals, and Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick, who has scored 19. Injuries have plagued both teams, however.
Given the prediction and strong competitive spirit, a draw seems like a likely outcome here. Betting odds slightly favor Mainz 05, but with both teams having key injuries and a history of draws recently, betting on a draw could be the smart move.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & Betting Tip
| Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Draw | 3.86 |
- Mainz 05 has not lost in their last four home matches, and they have a tendency to end games in draws.
- Bayer Leverkusen drew their last two away matches, showing consistent form on the road.
- Both teams have several key players injured, which might affect their strategies and could lead to a balanced match.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds
Let’s take a closer look at the odds for the upcoming clash between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen. The bookmakers have pegged Mainz 05 as the slight favorites, but it’s a tight call overall.
| Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Mainz 05 | 2.15 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2.98 |
Mainz 05 has the edge with odds of 2.15, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure a home win. However, the odds for a draw at 3.86 indicate that a tightly contested match is anticipated, which aligns with our betting tip. Bayer Leverkusen stands at 2.98, reflecting their strong second-place position.
With both teams having key players out and balanced performance stats, a draw appears to be a prudent bet for this encounter.
Mainz 05 Team Analysis
Recent Performance
Mainz 05 have had a mixed bag of results recently, with a record of one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five Bundesliga fixtures. This showcases their inconsistency as they head into the season’s final game.
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum | Mainz 05 | 2025-05-10 | Bundesliga | 1-4 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2025-05-04 | Bundesliga | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Bayern Munich | Mainz 05 | 2025-04-26 | Bundesliga | 3-0 (Loss) |
| Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg | 2025-04-19 | Bundesliga | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Hoffenheim | Mainz 05 | 2025-04-12 | Bundesliga | 2-0 (Loss) |
Mainz 05 have struggled defensively, with no clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding an average of 1.3 goals per game this season. Offensively, they’ve managed to score an average of 1.4 goals per game, showing some potency despite their defensive weaknesses. With key injuries impacting their squad, maintaining consistency has been a challenge.
Mainz 05 Key Players
Mainz 05 will rely heavily on their leading scorer, Jonathan Burkardt, who has netted 17 goals this season. His attacking prowess will be crucial as they look to penetrate Bayer Leverkusen’s defense, led by Jonathan Tah and Piero Hincapié.
Midfielders Jae-Sung Lee and Kaishu Sano will provide creativity and support to Burkardt, while Anthony Caci and Philipp Mwene are expected to bring width and energy from the flanks. Defensively, Mainz will aim to tighten up, especially since they’ve struggled with clean sheets recently.
Expected lineup for Mainz 05:
- Goalkeeper: Lasse Riess
- Defenders: Danny da Costa, Stefan Bell, Andreas Hanche-Olsen
- Midfielders: Anthony Caci, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Philipp Mwene, Paul Nebel, Jae-Sung Lee
- Forward: Jonathan Burkardt
Mainz 05 Suspensions & Injuries
Mainz 05 will be missing several key players due to injuries, which could significantly impact their strategy on the pitch.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Dominik Kohr | Medial Collateral Ligament injury | Early July 2025 |
| Robin Zentner | Thigh injury | Late May 2025 |
| Moritz Jenz | Nose surgery | Early June 2025 |
| Maxim Dal | Cruciate ligament injury | Mid January 2026 |
These absences might force coach Bo Henriksen to adjust his lineup and tactics, particularly in defense where regular starter Robin Zentner is sidelined.
Mainz 05 Tactics and Formation
Mainz 05 Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Jonathan Burkardt
- Burkardt, the top scorer with 17 goals this season, is crucial in finishing off chances created by the midfield.
- Midfield Line-Up:
- Right Midfielder: Anthony Caci
- Right Central Midfielder: Kaishu Sano
- Left Central Midfielder: Nadiem Amiri
- Left Midfielder: Philipp Mwene
- Defensive Trio:
- Right Center Back: Danny da Costa
- Central Back: Stefan Bell
- Left Center Back: Andreas Hanche-Olsen
- Defensive Challenges:
Mainz 05 have struggled defensively, with no clean sheets in their last five games.
Injuries to key defenders like Robin Zentner and Moritz Jenz complicate their defensive solidity. - Strategy:
Mainz frequently focuses on wide play with overlapping runs from their wingbacks, Caci and Mwene.
They tend to concede goals late in the match, particularly in the 76-90-minute interval.
Mainz’s approach will rely heavily on their midfield controlling the game tempo and providing ample support to their leading scorer, Burkardt. Their defensive organisation will be tested against a formidable Leverkusen attack.
Bayer Leverkusen Team Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen Recent Performance
Let’s take a closer look at Bayer Leverkusen’s recent form:
| Home Team | Away Team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund | 2025-05-11 | Bundesliga | 2-4 (Loss) |
| Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | 2025-05-04 | Bundesliga | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Augsburg | 2025-04-26 | Bundesliga | 2-0 (Win) |
| St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | 2025-04-20 | Bundesliga | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin | 2025-04-12 | Bundesliga | 0-0 (Draw) |
Recent Form: LDWDD
Bayer Leverkusen’s recent form has been a mixed bag. With only one win in their last five matches, they have had two draws and two losses. This inconsistency could be attributed to their defensive vulnerabilities as they have conceded goals in critical moments, especially from the 76-90 minute interval. However, their ability to keep possession and focus on passing accuracy remains strong.
They have managed an average of 1.4 goals scored per match in their last five outings and have kept two clean sheets.
Despite these ups and downs, Leverkusen have shown resilience and consistency in scoring, finding the net in 85% of their games this season. Their resilience will be crucial as they match wits with Mainz 05.
Bayer Leverkusen Key Players
Expected lineup for Bayer Leverkusen:
- Goalkeeper: Lukas Hradecky
- Defenders: Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, Piero Hincapie
- Midfielders: Jeremie Frimpong, Robert Andrich, Granit Xhaka, Alejandro Grimaldo, Florian Wirtz, Amine Adli
- Forward: Nathan Tella
Bayer Leverkusen will look to their key scorers to make an impact. Patrik Schick, who has netted 19 goals this season, will be a focal point in attack. Besides him, Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong offer creativity and pace, which will be crucial against Mainz 05’s defence.
Individual battles to watch include Patrik Schick against Mainz’s Stefan Bell and Florian Wirtz challenging Anthony Caci. These match-ups could be decisive in determining the outcome of the game.
Bayer Leverkusen Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Jeanuel Belocian | Cruciate ligament injury | Mid September 2025 |
| Martin Terrier | Achilles tendon injury | Out for season |
| Mario Hermoso | Tendon injury | Out for season |
| Nordi Mukiele | Calf Injury | Late May 2025 |
| Alejo Sarco | Hamstring Injury | Late May 2025 |
Bayer Leverkusen will have to navigate this crucial fixture with several key players sidelined. Jeanuel Belocian, Martin Terrier, and Mario Hermoso are all out with long-term injuries, which could affect the squad depth significantly. The absence of these players will likely force coach Xabi Alonso to tweak his strategy and rely heavily on his fit squad members.
The returning dates for Mukiele and Sarco are encouraging as they might be available for selection soon, but their current unavailability could weaken Leverkusen’s defensive stability.
Bayer Leverkusen Tactics and Formation
Bayer Leverkusen’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Nathan Tella
- Creative Engine: Florian Wirtz
- Defensive Stability: Two clean sheets in the last five games.
- Notable Strategy: High pressing and quick transitions.
Leverkusen, under the guidance of Xabi Alonso, usually line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation. The defense is anchored by a solid trio of Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, and Piero Hincapié. This setup allows Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo to push forward as wing-backs, providing width and additional attacking options.
In midfield, the experience of Granit Xhaka combined with Robert Andrich’s tenacity helps maintain control and break up opposition plays. Florian Wirtz and Amine Adli operate as the main creative outlets behind Nathan Tella, who leads the attacks.
Leverkusen’s high pressing and quick transitions often catch teams off guard, especially in the final 30 minutes of the match, taking advantage of any defensive lapses by pushing hard for goals.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | 2025-01-14 | Bundesliga | 1-0 (Loss) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | 2024-02-23 | Bundesliga | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2023-09-30 | Bundesliga | 0-3 (Loss) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | 2023-02-19 | Bundesliga | 2-3 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2022-08-27 | Bundesliga | 0-3 (Loss) |
Over the last five encounters, Bayer Leverkusen has had the upper hand with four wins, while Mainz 05 has managed just one victory. This historical dominance might give Leverkusen a psychological edge, but it’s worth noting that Mainz’s sole win also came on the road. On the flip side, Mainz will seek to leverage their strong recent home form to buck historical trends in this decisive Bundesliga clash.
Odds accurate as of 15/05/2025 14:32, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
