St. Pauli vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 20 April 2025 - bettingexpert
St. Pauli host high-flying Bayer Leverkusen at the Millerntor Stadion for the 30th round of the Bundesliga. Set for an 18:30 kick-off, this match has major implications for both sides.
St. Pauli find themselves precariously close to the relegation zone in 15th place with 29 points. They’ll be eager to secure vital points at home. However, the challenge is formidable, as Bayer Leverkusen, positioned second with 63 points, aim to close the gap on the league leaders.
Managing injuries is crucial for St. Pauli, with several key players sidelined, including Jackson Irvine and Elias Saad. Despite this, their recent form (DWDLW) shows resilience, highlighted by a notable 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich.
Bayer Leverkusen, unbeaten in their last four Bundesliga matches, will rely on their star forward Patrik Schick and the creative talents of Florian Wirtz. Their last five results (LLDWW) reflect a squad in solid form.
Referee Soeren Storks will officiate this clash, ensuring a fair contest. Weather conditions are expected to be conducive, facilitating an exciting match.
Our match prediction sees both teams scoring, given their offensive form. The recommended bet of “Both teams to score” at odds of 1.96 looks appealing. For those seeking higher returns, combining BTTS with over 2.5 goals could be worthwhile.
This game promises to be a captivating encounter as St. Pauli battles for survival, while Bayer Leverkusen pushes for the title.
St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & Betting Tip
For the upcoming clash between St. Pauli and Bayer Leverkusen, the recommended betting tip is “Both teams to score” (BTTS). Both teams have demonstrated a knack for finding the net frequently, and given their offensive forms, BTTS looks like a solid bet.
| St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 1.96 |
- St. Pauli has managed to score in all their last five matches, showcasing their ability to find the net even against stronger teams.
- Bayer Leverkusen has a strong offensive record, scoring in 83% of their matches this season, making it likely they will continue this trend.
- Both sides have vulnerabilities in defense, reflected by their lack of clean sheets in recent games, enhancing the possibility of goals at both ends.
This combination of stats and recent performances points towards an engaging match with goals from both sides.
St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds
The upcoming Bundesliga match between St. Pauli and Bayer Leverkusen provides some interesting betting opportunities. According to the bookmakers, Bayer Leverkusen is heavily favored to win the match.
| St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| St. Pauli | 5.06 |
| Draw | 3.76 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.68 |
Key Points:
- Bayer Leverkusen’s position as the bookmaker favorite highlights their strong form and higher standing in the table.
- Given St. Pauli’s recent performances and home advantage, the high odds for a home win might be enticing for risk-takers.
- The draw presents a middle-ground opportunity, reflecting the potential for a closely contested match.
St. Pauli Team Analysis
St. Pauli Recent Performance
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli | 2025-04-12 | Bundesliga | 1-2 (Win) |
| St. Pauli | Borussia Moenchengladbach | 2025-04-06 | Bundesliga | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Bayern Munich | St. Pauli | 2025-03-29 | Bundesliga | 3-2 (Loss) |
| St. Pauli | Hertha Berlin | 2025-03-19 | Club Friendlies | 0-0 (Draw) |
| St. Pauli | Hoffenheim | 2025-03-14 | Bundesliga | 1-0 (Win) |
St. Pauli has shown a mixed set of results recently, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Their defensive resilience is evident, as they kept 2 clean sheets during this period. Their attacking output has been modest, averaging 1.20 goals per game in their last 5 outings. Notably, despite their position near the relegation zone, they managed to score twice against the formidable Bayern Munich, showcasing their potential for upsetting stronger teams. St. Pauli will need to harness this quality and their late-game scoring propensity, having netted most goals between the 76th and 90th minutes this season.
St. Pauli Key Players
St. Pauli will be looking to their top scorer, Morgan Guilavogui, to make an impact in this crucial match. With 5 goals to his name, his ability to find the net could be pivotal against Bayer Leverkusen’s defense, led by Jonathan Tah.
Midfielder Eric Smith, known for his work rate and ball distribution, will play a vital role in controlling the midfield battle against Bayer’s Granit Xhaka.
Oladapo Afolayan, positioned as the right forward, will look to exploit any defensive lapses.
Expected lineup for St. Pauli:
- Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj
- Defenders: David Nemeth, Hauke Wahl, Siebe Van Der Heyden
- Midfielders: Manolis Saliakas, Eric Smith, Connor Metcalfe, Philipp Treu
- Forwards: Oladapo Afolayan, Danel Sinani, Morgan Guilavogui
Their ability to score late in the game, particularly during the 76-90 minute interval, will be a key factor to watch.
St. Pauli Suspensions & Injuries
St. Pauli are currently facing a significant injury crisis, which could heavily impact their performance against Bayer Leverkusen.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Simon Zoller | Calf injury | Early May 2025 |
| Sascha Burchert | Groin injury | Mid May 2025 |
| James Sands | Broken leg | Mid July 2025 |
| Scott Banks | Illness | A few days |
| Karol Mets | Knee surgery | Mid August 2025 |
| Johannes Eggestein | Sprained ankle | Early May 2025 |
| Noah Weißhaupt | Illness | A few days |
| Elias Saad | Knee injury | Early June 2025 |
| Jackson Irvine | Ankle injury | Mid May 2025 |
With crucial players like Simon Zoller, James Sands, and Jackson Irvine sidelined, Alexander Blessin’s team will need to dig deep to keep their survival hopes alive in the Bundesliga.
In particular, the absence of Irvine, a key midfielder, could disrupt their cohesion and ability to dominate the middle of the park.
St. Pauli Tactics and Formation
St. Pauli Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-3
- Key Forward: Morgan Guilavogui, leading scorer with 5 goals.
- Midfield Duo: Eric Smith and Connor Metcalfe, with a defensive and box-to-box dynamic.
- Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games.
Alexander Blessin tends to set up his team in a 3-4-3 formation, focusing on defensive solidity and counter-attacking opportunities. Eric Smith’s ability to break up play and Metcalfe’s box-to-box energy will be crucial in midfield. Expect St. Pauli to deploy a compact defensive shape, looking for Guilavogui and Afolayan to exploit any gaps in Leverkusen’s backline, particularly in the latter stages of the game.
Bayer Leverkusen Team Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen Recent Performance
Bayer Leverkusen have shown a mixed bag of results in their last five games, demonstrating both resilience and areas needing improvement. Here’s a snapshot of their recent form:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin | 2025-04-12 | Bundesliga | 0-0 (Draw) |
| FC Heidenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | 2025-04-05 | Bundesliga | 0-1 (Win) |
| Arminia Bielefeld | Bayer Leverkusen | 2025-04-01 | DFB Pokal | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bochum | 2025-03-28 | Bundesliga | 3-1 (Win) |
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | 2025-03-16 | Bundesliga | 3-4 (Win) |
Leverkusen are averaging 1.80 goals per match in their last five, clearly showcasing their offensive might. However, with 2 clean sheets, they’ve demonstrated that their defense is solid yet can occasionally leak goals. Their unbeaten run in the last four Bundesliga matches, and having scored in 83% of the matches this season, highlights their consistent performance.
With Xabi Alonso at the helm, the team will look to capitalize on their recent form and secure a strong finish to the season.
Bayer Leverkusen Key Players
Bayer Leverkusen’s attacking prowess is led by their top scorer Patrik Schick, who has netted 17 goals this season. Schick will be a constant threat to St. Pauli’s defense.
In the midfield, Granit Xhaka provides both experience and defensive solidity, while the dynamic Jeremie Frimpong adds pace and creativity down the right flank.
Key individual battles will likely see Schick against St. Pauli’s central defenders Hauke Wahl and David Nemeth, which could be pivotal in this match.
Expected lineup for Bayer Leverkusen:
- Goalkeeper: Lukas Hradecky
- Defenders: Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, Piero Hincapié
- Midfielders: Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka, Aleix Garcia, Alejandro Grimaldo, Amine Adli, Florian Wirtz
- Forward: Patrik Schick
Bayer Leverkusen Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Jeanuel Belocian | Cruciate ligament injury | Mid-September 2025 |
| Martin Terrier | Achilles tendon injury | Out for the season |
| Mario Hermoso | Tendon injury | Out for the season |
| Nathan Tella | Concussion | A few days |
Bayer Leverkusen will be missing some key players for this match. Jeanuel Belocian, Martin Terrier, and Mario Hermoso will not only be absent for this game but for the remainder of the season as they recover from serious injuries. Nathan Tella’s concussion is less severe, and he might return sooner, but he’s unlikely to feature in this clash. These absences, particularly in defense and attack, may impact Leverkusen’s squad depth and could test their ability to maintain their strong form.
Bayer Leverkusen Tactics and Formation
Bayer Leverkusen Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Patrik Schick
- With 17 goals this season, Schick is pivotal to Leverkusen’s attacking prowess.
- Attacking Midfield Duo: Amine Adli and Florian Wirtz
- These creative players will support Schick and look to exploit gaps in the St. Pauli defence.
- Wing Play:
- Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo provide width and overlapping runs from the wing-back positions, significantly contributing to attacking moves.
- Midfield Engine: Granit Xhaka and Aleix Garcia
- Their role is crucial in controlling the tempo, winning back possession, and providing accurate distribution.
- Defensive Strength:
- Two clean sheets in their last five games highlight their organised backline comprising Piero Hincapié, Jonathan Tah, and Edmond Tapsoba.
- Notable Strategy:
- Leverkusen tends to maintain high energy and pressure the opposition, especially in the second half, a period where they often secure their lead.
St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | St. Pauli | 2024-12-07 | Bundesliga | 2-1 (Win) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | St. Pauli | 2014-09-04 | Club Friendlies | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | St. Pauli | 2011-04-10 | 1. Bundesliga | 2-1 (Win) |
| St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | 2010-11-13 | 1. Bundesliga | 0-1 (Loss) |
| St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | 2010-07-16 | Club Friendlies | 1-1 (Draw) |
The historical encounters between St. Pauli and Bayer Leverkusen have been largely dominated by Leverkusen. In their last five meetings, Leverkusen has won three times, while two matches ended in draws. St. Pauli will look to break this pattern and secure a much-needed win as they fight to avoid relegation.
Odds accurate as of 18/04/2025 18:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
