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Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund Tips & Predictions

(Half time: 2-0)
Paris Saint-Germain
Borussia Dortmund


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PSG v Borussia Dortmund Prediction

It’s the second leg of this highly-anticipated Champions League knockout match as Borussia Dortmund head to Paris. They have a 2-1 lead on aggregate after that impressive victory against PSG last time out. The Ligue 1 side have often fallen at this stage in the past but could that conciliatory away goal from Neymar make all the difference?

Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund Recent Form

It’s been relatively straightforward for Paris Saint-Germain since that 2-1 defeat to Dortmund last month. They’ve welcomed Bordeaux and Dijon to the Parc Des Princes in recent weeks and put four goals past them both to secure six points. Dortmund have also won both of their matches and kept two clean sheets in the process.

Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund Recent Matchups

The two sides were drawn in the Europa League together back in the 2010/11 group stages of the competition. The two matches ended all square but of course, they’ve met since then. Erling Haaland secured the win for Borussia Dortmund in the first leg with his impressive two-goal European debut for the club.

Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund Stats & Analysis

Paris Saint-Germain’s home record in this competition has been impressive so far this season. It’s three wins from three in front of their own fans in Europe and they didn’t concede a goal in any of them. The 3-0 win over Real Madrid back in September was the standout result of the three.

But as has often been the case for the Ligue 1 side in Europe, things often go wrong once they reach the knockout stages. PSG have lost both of their last two knockout matches at the Parc Des Princes including that harrowing 3-1 loss to Manchester United last season after they won at Old Trafford. A similar result here would be disastrous for manager Thomas Tuchel.

But Borussia Dortmund don’t travel well in the Champions League. Their away record is awful compared to their form at the Westfalenstadion. Dortmund have lost eight of their last 12 matches on the road in the Champions League including all of their last four knockout matches away from home.

It has become a problem for them on all fronts. Dortmund just can’t replicate their home form on the road and have lost three of their last five in all competitions. One thing that will give them confidence is their improving defensive record. They’ve now kept three clean sheets in five in the Bundesliga and another one against PSG will send them into the quarter-finals.

Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund Bets

But Paris Saint-Germain are the favourites to win this match in front of their own fans, just as they usually are in Ligue 1. PSG are 5/7 to win the match in 90 minutes with Borussia Dortmund out at 4/1. You’ll also get odds of 4/1 for a draw in the match which would mean progression for the Bundesliga side.

There is a lot of evidence to expect goals in this one. These are two of the highest-scoring sides in Europe’s top five leagues so far this season. There has been an average of over 5.3 goals per game in each of the last eight matches Paris Saint-Germain have played in all competitions. Similarly, there has been an average of around 4.5 goals in the last nine matches Dortmund have played in. Over 3.5 goals in this game is 1/1 and over 5.5 is an outside punt at 11/2.

As this is a two-legged tie, you have to think about what each side needs out of the match. A draw or a win will take Borussia Dortmund through and you’ll get odds of 11/8 for a draw/win double chance for them. Similarly, a 1-0 win will be enough for the home side to triumph and that is available at 27/2. But Dortmund’s away form in Europe is too hard to ignore, even if PSG have been pretty woeful in the Champions League knockout rounds. A PSG win with a 1-0 European handicap is a tempting 16/5.