Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Saturday, 17 January

On Saturday, 17 January, Borussia Dortmund will face St. Pauli in a Bundesliga clash at the iconic Signal Iduna Park. This match is a key fixture in the Bundesliga calendar, as Borussia Dortmund aim to maintain their strong position in the league standings. Meanwhile, St. Pauli, known for their spirited performances, will be looking to cause an upset against one of Germany’s top teams.

The venue, Signal Iduna Park, is renowned for its electrifying atmosphere, which could play a crucial role in this encounter. Borussia Dortmund, with their attacking prowess, will look to capitalise on their home advantage. St. Pauli, on the other hand, will need to be at their defensive best to withstand the pressure. This match promises to be an intriguing battle, with both teams eager to secure valuable Bundesliga points.

Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Borussia Dortmund -2.50 (Asian Handicap)	3.65

Given the current form and statistics, our recommended betting tip is Borussia Dortmund -2.5 on the Asian Handicap. Dortmund’s impressive home record and St. Pauli’s defensive vulnerabilities suggest a comfortable win for the hosts.

• Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in 10 consecutive matches in this competition, highlighting their strong form.
• St. Pauli concede an average of 1.8 goals per game, indicating potential defensive issues against a high-scoring side like Dortmund.
• Dortmund have scored in 100% of their home matches this season, showcasing their reliable offensive capabilities.

Betting Odds

Borussia Dortmund are heavy favourites in this Bundesliga clash against St. Pauli, with the match odds reflecting their dominant home form. The odds for a Dortmund win are quite short, standing at 1.33, which suggests strong confidence in their ability to secure all three points.

Betting Tip	Odds
Borussia Dortmund to win	1.33
Draw	5.1
St. Pauli to win	8.98

For those seeking value, the draw is priced at 5.1, while a surprise victory for St. Pauli offers a tempting 8.98. Given Dortmund’s attacking strength, punters might also consider betting on over 2.5 goals, anticipating a goal-fest at Signal Iduna Park.

Borussia Dortmund Analysis & Past Performance

Borussia Dortmund’s recent form has been impressive, with the team currently sitting second in the Bundesliga table, amassing 36 points. In their last five matches, they have remained unbeaten with two wins and three draws. Notably, they secured a convincing 3-0 victory against Werder Bremen in their most recent outing at Signal Iduna Park.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Borussia Dortmund	Werder Bremen	3 – 0 (Win)	Bundesliga	13 Jan 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt	Borussia Dortmund	3 – 3 (Draw)	Bundesliga	9 Jan 2026
Borussia Dortmund	Borussia Mönchengladbach	2 – 0 (Win)	Bundesliga	19 Dec 2025
Freiburg	Borussia Dortmund	1 – 1 (Draw)	Bundesliga	14 Dec 2025
Borussia Dortmund	Bodø/Glimt	2 – 2 (Draw)	Champions League	10 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Dortmund’s attacking prowess is clear, as they have averaged 2.20 goals per match over their last five fixtures, totalling 11 goals. Defensively, they have shown resilience, conceding only 6 goals across these games and keeping 2 clean sheets, resulting in a goals conceded average of 1.20 per match.

At home, Dortmund have been particularly strong, with a win ratio of 60% across their last five home encounters. They have managed to score in each of these matches, demonstrating offensive consistency. Serhou Guirassy stands out as a key player, having scored 6 goals, underlining his importance in Dortmund’s attack.

Overall, Dortmund’s blend of a solid defence and potent attack makes them a formidable side. Their ability to adapt tactically and maintain possession even under pressure highlights their potential to challenge for the title this season.

• WDWDD

Borussia Dortmund Suspensions & Injuries

Borussia Dortmund have minimal injury concerns ahead of their upcoming clash against St. Pauli. Aaron Anselmino is the only player currently sidelined, dealing with a muscle injury expected to keep him out until late January 2026. While Anselmino’s absence is not expected to significantly impact the starting line-up, it does reduce depth options for head coach Niko Kovač, particularly in midfield rotations.

The tactical setup of Borussia Dortmund is unlikely to be heavily affected by Anselmino’s unavailability, given that all key players, including Gregor Kobel and Marcel Sabitzer, remain fit and ready for selection. The 3-4-2-1 formation should remain intact, emphasising a strong midfield presence to control the game against St. Pauli.

With a full complement of starting players available, Dortmund’s prospects appear strong, potentially influencing betting markets to favour a home victory. The continuity in their line-up allows them to maintain their strategic approach, focusing on fluid transitions and solid defensive resilience.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Aaron Anselmino	Muscle injury	Late January 2026

Borussia Dortmund Key Players

Borussia Dortmund’s attacking threat this season has been led by their top scorer, Serhou Guirassy, who has netted six goals. Guirassy’s ability to find space and finish with precision makes him a constant danger to any defence. His partnership with Fabio Silva, the expected forward, is crucial as they look to break down St. Pauli’s backline. Silva’s movement and knack for creating opportunities will complement Guirassy’s goal-scoring instincts effectively.

In midfield, Marcel Sabitzer stands out as a pivotal playmaker, orchestrating the team’s tempo and linking defence with attack. His vision and passing range are instrumental in unlocking opposition defences. Alongside him, Felix Nmecha provides dynamism with his box-to-box capabilities, adding both defensive solidity and attacking support. Defensively, Nico Schlotterbeck’s leadership and aerial ability are vital for maintaining Dortmund’s defensive structure, especially against set-pieces.

Expected line-up for Borussia Dortmund

• Goalkeeper: Gregor Kobel
• Defence: Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, Niklas Süle
• Midfield: Yan Couto, Julian Ryerson, Maximilian Beier, Carney Chukwuemeka, Marcel Sabitzer, Felix Nmecha
• Forward: Fabio Silva

Overall, the tactical impact of these key players will be significant in determining Borussia Dortmund’s approach to the match. Their strengths, particularly in attack and midfield creativity, are expected to play a decisive role in their strategy to secure a victory against St. Pauli.

Borussia Dortmund Tactics and Formation

Borussia Dortmund Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Fabio Silva
• Midfield Dynamos: Marcel Sabitzer and Carney Chukwuemeka
• Defensive Record: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on wing play and quick transitions.

In their 3-4-2-1 formation, Dortmund aim to dominate the flanks and create overloads in wide areas. The wing-backs, Yan Couto and Julian Ryerson, are pivotal in both attacking and defensive transitions, providing width and support to the midfield.

Central to their play is the midfield pairing of Marcel Sabitzer and Carney Chukwuemeka, who balance defensive duties with creative output. This duo enables Dortmund to maintain possession and dictate the game’s tempo, while Felix Nmecha and Maximilian Beier operate in advanced roles to link with forward Fabio Silva.

Offensively, Dortmund’s strategy revolves around quick transitions and exploiting spaces left by opponents. Defensively, with Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Niklas Süle forming the back three, they have maintained a solid defensive record, reflected in two clean sheets in their recent matches.

St. Pauli Analysis & Past Performance

St. Pauli’s recent form has been inconsistent, with their last five matches yielding one win, two draws, and two defeats. The team managed to secure a win against FC Heidenheim (2-1) but suffered a narrow defeat to Wolfsburg (1-2) in their most recent outing. This inconsistency is reflected in their current standing at 17th in the Bundesliga, with only 12 points amassed so far.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Wolfsburg	St. Pauli	2 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	14 Jan 2026
St. Pauli	Werder Bremen	0 – 0 (Draw)	Club Friendlies	4 Jan 2026
Mainz 05	St. Pauli	0 – 0 (Draw)	Bundesliga	21 Dec 2025
St. Pauli	FC Heidenheim	2 – 1 (Win)	Bundesliga	13 Dec 2025
FC Köln	St. Pauli	1 – 1 (Draw)	Bundesliga	6 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• LDDWD

St. Pauli have struggled offensively, averaging only 0.80 goals per game in their last five fixtures. Despite this, they have shown some defensive resilience, keeping two clean sheets during this period. Away from home, their performance dips significantly, having failed to secure a win in their last five away matches, with three losses and two draws. Their away form is a crucial area for improvement as they prepare to face Borussia Dortmund.

St. Pauli Suspensions & Injuries

St. Pauli approach this clash against Borussia Dortmund with several key players unavailable due to injuries. David Nemeth and Simon Spari are both sidelined with tendon and ankle injuries, respectively, expected to return by late January 2026. Additionally, Andreas Hountondji’s broken ankle rules him out until late April 2026. These absences put pressure on the defensive unit, requiring players like Hauke Wahl and Adam Dźwigała to step up in their roles.

In midfield, the absence of Danel Sinani and Jackson Irvine, who is surprisingly listed as starting despite a foot injury, could impact St. Pauli’s creativity and stability. James Sands and Joel Chima Fujita will likely be tasked with filling the void, but the lack of depth could challenge the team’s adaptability and performance against a formidable opponent like Dortmund.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
David Nemeth	Tendon injury	Late January 2026
Simon Spari	Ankle injury	Late January 2026
Andreas Hountondji	Broken ankle	Late April 2026
Danel Sinani	Calf injury	Early February 2026
Jackson Irvine	Foot injury	Mid February 2026

With no suspensions, St. Pauli’s main challenge remains coping with the injuries. The tactical impact could be significant, especially in maintaining defensive solidity and midfield cohesion. The betting markets might adjust odds slightly in Dortmund’s favour, considering St. Pauli’s weakened squad, particularly in defence and midfield, which could affect their ability to resist Dortmund’s attacking strength.

St. Pauli Key Players

St. Pauli’s attacking threat will be significantly boosted by Mathias Pereira Lage, who is expected to lead the forward line in the absence of their top scorer Andreas Hountondji. Pereira Lage’s ability to exploit spaces and his knack for finding the back of the net will be vital against Borussia Dortmund’s defence. Alongside him, Abdoulie Ceesay is expected to provide pace and creativity, making them a formidable duo up front.

In midfield, the spotlight will be on Joel Chima Fujita and James Sands, whose roles will be crucial in dictating the tempo and providing defensive cover. Their ability to control the midfield battle and transition from defence to attack could be a determining factor in St. Pauli’s game plan. Defensively, Hauke Wahl and Adam Dźwigała will be tasked with keeping the opposition’s forwards at bay, relying on Wahl’s aerial strength and Dźwigała’s tackling prowess.

Expected line-up for St. Pauli:

• Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj
• Defence: Hauke Wahl, Adam Dźwigała, Karol Mets
• Midfield: Arkadiusz Pyrka, Joel Chima Fujita, James Sands, Jackson Irvine, Louis Oppie
• Forward: Abdoulie Ceesay, Mathias Pereira Lage

St. Pauli Tactics and Formation

St. Pauli Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Mathias Pereira Lage
• Midfield General: Jackson Irvine
• Defensive Solidity: Struggled to keep clean sheets, only one in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Utilises wing-backs for width and counter-attacking opportunities.

St. Pauli’s 3-5-2 formation is structured to exploit width and create counter-attacking chances. With wing-backs Arkadiusz Pyrka and Louis Oppie, they aim to stretch the opposition and deliver crosses into the box for forwards Abdoulie Ceesay and Mathias Pereira Lage. Jackson Irvine’s return to midfield adds stability and leadership, crucial for linking defence and attack.

Defensively, the trio of Hauke Wahl, Adam Dźwigała, and Karol Mets is tasked with maintaining a strong line, though recent performances have shown vulnerabilities, conceding in four of their last five outings. Nikola Vasilj in goal provides a reliable last line of defence, though the team has struggled to keep clean sheets consistently.

Offensively, St. Pauli focus on quick transitions, utilising the pace of their forwards and the creative play of James Sands in midfield. This approach has seen them score in four of their last five matches, indicating their potential threat in front of goal despite the absence of top scorer Andreas Hountondji due to injury.

Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head Record

Borussia Dortmund have dominated the head-to-head record against St. Pauli, winning 8 out of their 11 encounters, with St. Pauli managing just one victory and 2 matches ending in draws. The last time these two met, it was a thrilling 3-3 draw at St. Pauli’s ground in the Bundesliga, showcasing St. Pauli’s ability to challenge Dortmund.

The last time Borussia Dortmund hosted St. Pauli at Signal Iduna Park, they secured a narrow 2-1 victory in the Bundesliga back in October 2024. Dortmund’s strong home form against St. Pauli is evident, as they have consistently come out on top in these fixtures.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund	3 – 3	Bundesliga	2025-08-23
St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund	0 – 2	Bundesliga	2025-03-01
Borussia Dortmund	St. Pauli	2 – 1	Bundesliga	2024-10-18
St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund	2 – 1	DFB Pokal	2022-01-18
Borussia Dortmund	St. Pauli	3 – 2	Club Friendlies	2016-07-14