Derby vs Leeds Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Sunday, 11 January

This Sunday, 11 January, the FA Cup presents an intriguing clash between Derby County and Leeds United at Pride Park. With both teams eager to progress in this prestigious tournament, the stakes are high, and each side will be determined to make their mark. Derby, playing at home, will look to use their familiarity with Pride Park to gain an advantage over their opponents.

Leeds United, meanwhile, will be keen to assert their strength and continue their cup run with a victory away from home. The FA Cup is renowned for its surprises, and this matchup promises to be a captivating encounter. With both teams boasting a rich history in English football, fans can expect a competitive and spirited contest. These betting tips will break down the key factors to consider for this exciting fixture.

Derby vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Both teams to score: yes	1.98

Given the current form and historical context, our recommended betting tip is ‘Both Teams to Score (BTS) – Yes’. Derby County’s recent 1-2-2 record and Leeds United’s previous unbeaten run suggest both sides are likely to find the net in this FA Cup tie. Additionally, Leeds’ win at this venue last year, coupled with Derby’s four-match winless streak in the competition, supports the likelihood of goals from both teams.

• Derby County have scored in most of their recent matches, indicating strong attacking potential.
• Leeds United’s recent form and previous success at this venue make them likely to score.
• Historically, FA Cup matches between Championship and Premier League sides tend to be competitive and high-scoring.

Betting Odds

Leeds United head into this FA Cup clash at Pride Park as the favourites, with bookmakers offering odds of 1.76 for an away win. Derby County, on the other hand, are priced at 4.59, suggesting a tough outing for the home side. A draw, which could be a tempting option for some punters, stands at 3.48.

Betting Tip	Odds
Derby to win	4.59
Draw	3.48
Leeds to win	1.76

Given Leeds United’s strong form, the betting odds reflect confidence in their ability to secure a win. However, Derby County’s potential to cause an upset at home should not be overlooked, making this a match with intriguing betting opportunities.

Derby County Analysis & Past Performance

Derby County’s recent form has been a mix of challenging results and occasional triumphs, reflecting their struggle for consistency this season. Over the last five matches, Derby County have secured a single victory against Middlesbrough (1-0), while suffering two losses, including a recent 1-2 defeat at home to Wrexham.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Derby County	Wrexham	1 – 2 (Loss)	Championship	4 Jan 2026
Derby County	Middlesbrough	1 – 0 (Win)	Championship	1 Jan 2026
Leicester City	Derby County	2 – 1 (Loss)	Championship	29 Dec 2025
Birmingham City	Derby County	1 – 1 (Draw)	Championship	26 Dec 2025
Derby County	Portsmouth	1 – 1 (Draw)	Championship	20 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
In their past five fixtures, Derby County have averaged 1.00 goal per game, with a total of 5 goals scored. However, their defensive record has been a concern, conceding an average of 1.20 goals per match, resulting in 6 goals against. They have managed to keep just one clean sheet during this period, highlighting their ongoing defensive vulnerabilities.

Derby County’s home performance mirrors their overall form, with only one win in their last five matches at Pride Park. Their goal-scoring ability has been consistent, finding the net in each of their last five games, but the inability to secure more than a single clean sheet underscores their defensive frailties. With a current win ratio of 20% at home, Derby County must enhance their defensive solidity to improve their standing in the Championship.

• LWLDD

Derby County Suspensions & Injuries

With no injuries or suspensions affecting Derby County, manager John Eustace can rely on a full squad for the upcoming FA Cup clash against Leeds United. This offers a significant advantage, allowing Derby County to field their strongest lineup and potentially deploy a variety of tactical formations tailored to exploit Leeds United’s weaknesses.

The availability of key players such as Rhian Brewster and Ben Brereton Díaz in attack ensures Derby County can maintain a potent offensive threat. Their presence on the pitch is crucial for Derby County’s pressing game and counter-attacking strategies, which could be pivotal against a Leeds United side known for their high-energy play.

In midfield, the presence of players like Bobby Clark and Liam Thompson means Derby County can dominate possession and control the tempo of the game. Their ability to link defence and attack seamlessly provides a stable foundation for Derby County’s tactical approach.

Defensively, the inclusion of Matthew Clarke and Dion Sanderson adds solidity and experience at the back. This full-strength defence is essential for neutralising Leeds United’s attacking threats, particularly in set-piece situations where Derby County have historically been vulnerable.

Derby County Key Players

In the upcoming FA Cup clash against Leeds United, Derby County will be relying heavily on their key players to make a significant impact at Pride Park. While the top scorer’s details remain undisclosed, the emphasis will be on their forward line to find the back of the net. The attacking prowess of Derby County’s forwards, who are expected to lead the charge, will be crucial in breaking down Leeds United’s defence.

In midfield, Derby County’s playmakers will need to control the tempo of the game. Their ability to link defence and attack, while providing defensive cover, will be vital. The midfielders’ creativity and vision could unlock Leeds United’s defence, making them indispensable to Derby County’s tactical approach.

Defensively, Derby County’s backline will be tasked with containing Leeds United’s attacks. The defenders’ strength in aerial duels and tackling will be key to preventing any breakthroughs. Their ability to maintain a solid defensive structure will be crucial in keeping a clean sheet and providing a platform for the attackers to build upon.

Derby County Tactics and Formation

Derby County Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Rhian Brewster
• Midfield Pivot: Liam Thompson and Bobby Clark
• Defensive Strength: Struggled recently, conceding six goals in last five games
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and quick wing transitions.

Derby County are likely to adopt a 4-3-3 formation, which provides versatility in both attack and defence. Rhian Brewster leads the line, supported by wingers Ben Brereton Díaz and Patrick Agyemang, who offer pace and directness. The midfield trio, led by the industrious Liam Thompson and creative Bobby Clark, aims to maintain possession and distribute the ball effectively.

Defensively, Derby County have faced challenges, managing only one clean sheet in their last five matches. The backline, including Sondre Klingen Langaas and Dion Sanderson, needs to tighten up to prevent conceding. Jacob Widell Zetterström’s role as goalkeeper will be crucial in organising the defence and making crucial saves.

Offensively, Derby County’s strategy involves high pressing and exploiting the wings, where players like Callum Elder can provide overlapping runs and crosses. However, their recent form suggests vulnerability, especially late in games, where concentration has lapsed.

Leeds United Analysis & Past Performance

Leeds United have experienced mixed results in their recent outings, with their last five matches yielding one win, one loss, and three draws. The notable victory came against Crystal Palace (4-1), demonstrating their potential in front of goal.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Newcastle United	Leeds United	4 – 3 (Loss)	Premier League	7 Jan 2026
Leeds United	Manchester United	1 – 1 (Draw)	Premier League	4 Jan 2026
Liverpool	Leeds United	0 – 0 (Draw)	Premier League	1 Jan 2026
Sunderland	Leeds United	1 – 1 (Draw)	Premier League	28 Dec 2025
Leeds United	Crystal Palace	4 – 1 (Win)	Premier League	20 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
On average, Leeds United have scored 1.80 goals per game while conceding 1.40 in their last five fixtures. Their attacking prowess is evident, as they have managed to score in four of these matches, with an 80% rate of both teams scoring. However, defensive frailties have been exposed, conceding in four of these games and keeping just one clean sheet.

Away Performance:

• LDDDW

Leeds United’s away form is a concern, as they have not secured a win in their last five away matches, drawing three and losing two. Their away win ratio stands at a meagre 0.00, highlighting the challenges faced on the road. Overall, they have scored 9 goals and conceded 7 in their last five games, indicating a need for improved defensive organisation to complement their attacking efforts.

Leeds United Suspensions & Injuries

Leeds United approach the match against Derby County with a clean bill of health, as there are no current injuries or suspensions affecting the squad. This full availability provides manager Daniel Farke with the luxury of deploying his strongest lineup without any enforced alterations. The absence of injuries or suspensions is a significant advantage, allowing Leeds United to maintain their preferred tactical setup and potentially dominate possession against Derby County.

The absence of any unavailable players means that Leeds United can focus on implementing their game plan at full strength. This scenario is particularly beneficial for Leeds United, as it allows for continuity in their style of play and ensures that key players remain in their natural positions. The depth of the squad is also preserved, enabling Farke to make tactical substitutions if necessary, without compromising on quality.

With a full squad at his disposal, Farke can strategise more effectively, potentially opting for an aggressive approach to capitalise on Derby County’s weaknesses. The flexibility to adjust formations and playstyles without the constraint of missing players could be decisive in securing a victory. Leeds United’s ability to field their strongest eleven is likely to influence the betting markets, as their chances of progressing in the FA Cup are enhanced.

This situation also allows Leeds United to rotate their squad wisely, keeping players fresh for the busy schedule ahead. The absence of injuries or suspensions is a testament to the club’s effective management of player fitness and discipline, which might prove to be a crucial factor in their FA Cup campaign. The full-strength squad increases confidence and cohesion, vital for Leeds United as they aim to advance further in the competition.

Leeds United Key Players

Leeds United’s tactical approach will heavily rely on the contributions of their key players, despite the unknown specifics of their top scorer. Their attacking line-up is expected to feature a dynamic forward who will be crucial in breaking down Derby County’s defence. In midfield, Leeds United are likely to depend on their playmaker, whose vision and passing abilities can unlock tight spaces and create goal-scoring opportunities.

In defence, Leeds United will count on their stalwart defenders to provide solidity and organisation at the back. Their ability to maintain concentration and intercept key passes could be vital in neutralising Derby County’s attacking threats. The goalkeeper, if performing as expected, will also be pivotal in commanding the box and making crucial saves.

Overall, Leeds United’s strengths lie in their cohesive unit where each player understands their role within the team structure. The interplay between the midfield and forwards could be the deciding factor in their tactical impact on the match, aiming to exploit any weaknesses in Derby County’s setup.

Leeds United Tactics and Formation

Leeds United Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
• Midfield Pivot: Ethan Ampadu and Anton Stach
• Defensive Challenges: Conceded in 4 of the last 5 games
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and exploiting wide areas.

Leeds United, under the guidance of Daniel Farke, typically deploy a 3-5-2 formation, which allows them to leverage their midfield strength while maintaining width. With Ethan Ampadu and Anton Stach anchoring the midfield, Leeds United can effectively disrupt opponents’ play and initiate quick transitions. Gabriel Gudmundsson and James Justin provide width as wing-backs, crucial for both defensive coverage and attacking support.

Defensively, Leeds United have shown vulnerability, conceding in four of their last five matches. The back three, featuring Joe Rodon, Jaka Bijol, and Pascal Struijk, must be more cohesive to improve their record of only one clean sheet in recent fixtures. This setup requires strong communication and positioning to effectively counter opposition attacks.

Offensively, Leeds United focus on high pressing and exploiting wide areas, aiming to create opportunities for Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Brenden Aaronson. This strategy, if executed well, could exploit Derby County’s defensive weaknesses, particularly in transitions and wide spaces.

Derby County vs Leeds United H2H Record

In their head-to-head record, Derby County and Leeds United have faced off 35 times, with Derby County securing 15 wins to Leeds United’s 13, and 7 matches ending in a draw. Their most recent encounter saw Leeds United take a 1-0 victory at Derby County’s Pride Park in a Championship clash back in December 2024.

The last time these two met in the FA Cup was quite some time ago, making this upcoming fixture a fresh chapter in their cup rivalry. Derby County’s home advantage at Pride Park has not been as dominant recently, with Leeds United winning the last two meetings there.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Derby County	Leeds United	0 – 1	Championship	2024-12-29
Leeds United	Derby County	2 – 0	Championship	2024-12-07
Derby County	Leeds United	1 – 3	Championship	2020-07-19
Leeds United	Derby County	1 – 1	Championship	2019-09-21
Leeds United	Derby County	2 – 4	Championship Playoff	2019-05-15