St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Friday, 23 January

St. Pauli will host Hamburger SV at the Millerntor Stadion in a highly anticipated Bundesliga clash on Friday, 23 January. This match is more than a regular fixture; it is a significant encounter in the German football calendar, as both teams compete for supremacy in the league. With St. Pauli playing at home, they will be eager to use their familiar surroundings to gain an advantage over their local rivals.

Hamburger SV, meanwhile, will aim to spoil the occasion and secure crucial points away from home. The dynamics of this match are intriguing, as both teams have displayed competitive form in recent outings. Fans and bettors alike will be keeping a close eye on this fixture, as it promises to be a thrilling contest with potential implications for the Bundesliga standings. The Millerntor Stadion is set to witness an intense battle under the Friday night lights.

St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Advice	Odds
Draw	3.1

Given the recent defensive solidity of both teams and their history of closely contested matches, my recommended betting tip for this match is a draw.

• Both teams have shown solid defensive organisation recently, limiting clear scoring opportunities.
• Head-to-head encounters between these two sides often end without a winner, reflecting their evenly matched nature.
• St. Pauli’s need for points and Hamburger SV’s inconsistency make a tightly contested draw likely.

The odds reflect the balanced nature of this fixture, making a draw a plausible outcome.

Betting Odds

St. Pauli are slight favourites in this Bundesliga clash at the Millerntor Stadion, with betting odds reflecting their home advantage. However, Hamburger SV’s odds suggest a competitive match, and the draw is attractively priced for those expecting a stalemate.

Betting Tip	Odds
St. Pauli to win	2.53
Draw	3.1
Hamburger SV to win	2.91

Bettors might find value in the over 2.5 goals market, given both teams’ attacking capabilities. With both sides eager to climb the league table, expect a lively encounter.

St. Pauli Analysis & Past Performance

St. Pauli’s recent form has been mixed, with the team securing only one win in their last five Bundesliga matches. Their performance analysis reveals a challenging period, having lost twice, drawn twice, and won once. The club’s goals scored average stands at 1.20 per game, while they concede 1.40 on average, indicating a slight defensive frailty.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Borussia Dortmund	St. Pauli	3 – 2 (Loss)	Bundesliga	17 Jan 2026
Wolfsburg	St. Pauli	2 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	14 Jan 2026
St. Pauli	Werder Bremen	0 – 0 (Draw)	Club Friendlies	4 Jan 2026
Mainz 05	St. Pauli	0 – 0 (Draw)	Bundesliga	21 Dec 2025
St. Pauli	FC Heidenheim	2 – 1 (Win)	Bundesliga	13 Dec 2025

Home Performance:
At the Millerntor Stadion, St. Pauli’s statistics show inconsistencies, with only two wins out of their last five home games. Their home win ratio is 0.40, highlighting struggles to capitalise on home advantage. Despite this, they have managed to keep two clean sheets in their last ten matches, suggesting occasional defensive resilience.

Key Dynamics:

• LLDDW

The team’s leading scorer, Andreas Hountondji, has contributed significantly with four goals, yet the overall offensive output needs improvement, as evidenced by their low scoring average. Their current standing at 18th in the Bundesliga, with just 12 points, underscores the challenges they face in climbing the league table. Tactical adjustments may be required to bolster both their defensive and attacking capabilities moving forward.

St. Pauli Suspensions & Injuries

St. Pauli face a challenging situation with several key players sidelined due to injuries. Notably, Jackson Irvine, a crucial figure in their midfield, is out with a foot injury, potentially impacting their central control and creativity. His absence, alongside Danel Sinani’s calf injury, leaves a gap in both physical presence and attacking options. David Nemeth’s tendon injury further weakens their defensive depth, potentially forcing a reshuffle in their backline.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
David Nemeth	Tendon injury	Late January 2026
Simon Spari	Ligament injury	Late February 2026
Andreas Hountondji	Broken ankle	Late April 2026
Danel Sinani	Calf Injury	Early February 2026
Jackson Irvine	Foot injury	Early February 2026
Connor Metcalfe	Knee injury	Early March 2026

Despite these setbacks, St. Pauli’s starting lineup remains relatively robust, with players such as Eric Smith and James Sands expected to shoulder increased responsibilities in midfield. The tactical impact of these absences may see coach Alexander Blessin opt for a more conservative approach, relying on solid defensive structures to counter Hamburger SV’s offensive threats.

The unavailability of these players could influence betting markets, with St. Pauli potentially seen as underdogs due to their depleted options. The team’s ability to adapt tactically and the performance of their replacements will be crucial in determining the outcome of this matchup.

St. Pauli Key Players

St. Pauli will look to Martijn Kaars to lead their attack against Hamburger SV. Despite the absence of top scorer Andreas Hountondji due to injury, Kaars’ role as the forward is critical. His ability to hold up play and bring midfielders into the attack will be vital, particularly in the absence of some key players. In midfield, Eric Smith and James Sands are expected to be the engines, controlling the tempo and breaking up opposition play. Smith’s passing range and Sands’ defensive capabilities will be central to St. Pauli’s tactical approach.

At the back, Hauke Wahl and Karol Mets will be pivotal in maintaining a solid defensive line. Their partnership is crucial in thwarting the attacking threats of Hamburger SV, with Wahl’s leadership and Mets’ physicality providing a sturdy backbone. The tactical impact of these key players could set the tone for the match, with their strengths potentially tipping the balance in St. Pauli’s favour.

Expected lineup for St. Pauli:

• Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj
• Defence: Adam Dzwigala, Hauke Wahl, Karol Mets
• Midfield: Arkadiusz Pyrka, James Sands, Eric Smith, Lars Ritzka, Mathias Pereira Lage, Joel Chima Fujita
• Forward: Martijn Kaars

St. Pauli Tactics and Formation

St. Pauli Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Martijn Kaars
• Midfield Engine: James Sands and Eric Smith
• Defensive Approach: Vulnerable with a single clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Utilises wing-backs to provide width and support attacking transitions.

St. Pauli’s 3-4-2-1 formation is designed to offer flexibility, with a focus on width provided by the wing-backs Arkadiusz Pyrka and Lars Ritzka. This setup allows them to stretch the opposition and create space for the attacking midfielders Mathias Pereira Lage and Joel Chima Fujita to exploit.

In midfield, James Sands and Eric Smith play crucial roles, balancing defensive responsibilities with initiating attacks. Their ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball effectively is vital for St. Pauli’s transitions.

Defensively, the back three of Adam Dzwigala, Hauke Wahl, and Karol Mets have struggled to maintain solidity, as evidenced by just one clean sheet in their last five matches. This vulnerability may require the team to adopt a more cautious approach against stronger opponents, particularly given their recent loss to Borussia Dortmund.

Hamburger SV Analysis & Past Performance

Hamburger SV’s recent form has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their last five games, which have yielded just one victory against Werder Bremen (3-2). Despite a commendable draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach (0-0) in their latest outing, the team has struggled to maintain momentum, suffering defeats to Freiburg (2-1) and Hoffenheim (4-1).

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Hamburger SV	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0 – 0 (Draw)	Bundesliga	17 Jan 2026
Freiburg	Hamburger SV	2 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	10 Jan 2026
Hamburger SV	Eintracht Frankfurt	1 – 1 (Draw)	Bundesliga	20 Dec 2025
Hoffenheim	Hamburger SV	4 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	13 Dec 2025
Hamburger SV	Werder Bremen	3 – 2 (Win)	Bundesliga	7 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• DLDLW

The team’s performance statistics reveal a concerning trend in away games, having lost four of their last five fixtures on the road. Hamburger SV have managed to score an average of 1.20 goals per game while conceding 1.80 in the same period, indicating vulnerabilities in their defence. Despite this, they have found the net in four of their last five matches, showcasing some attacking potential, albeit without translating it into consistent results. Their sole clean sheet during this period highlights a need for stronger defensive performances to support their attacking efforts.

Hamburger SV Suspensions & Injuries

Hamburger SV’s upcoming clash with St. Pauli sees them without several players due to injuries. Key figures such as Yussuf Poulsen and Silvan Hefti are sidelined with unspecified injuries, potentially impacting the team’s tactical flexibility. Poulsen’s absence is particularly significant, as his presence often bolsters the attacking options for Hamburger SV.

Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nicolas Capaldo are also unavailable, leaving a void in midfield that might disrupt the team’s transitional play. The loss of Fabio Balde further limits the defensive options, necessitating tactical adjustments from coach Merlin Polzin. Immanuel Pherai’s inclusion in the starting lineup is a strategic move to cover defensive gaps.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Yussuf Poulsen	Unknown	Unknown
Silvan Hefti	Unknown	Unknown
Albert Sambi Lokonga	Unknown	Unknown
Fabio Balde	Unknown	Unknown
Nicolas Capaldo	Unknown	Unknown

With these injuries, Hamburger SV might need to rely on a more conservative approach, focusing on maintaining a solid defensive structure. The absences could lead to a more cautious game plan, potentially influencing betting markets as the team might struggle to maintain their usual attacking flair.

Hamburger SV Key Players

Rayan Philippe stands out as Hamburger SV’s top scorer with four goals this season. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a constant threat to the opposition’s defence. Philippe’s positioning and sharp instincts allow him to capitalise on any defensive errors by St. Pauli, making him a key player to watch.

In midfield, Bakery Jatta and Fabio Vieira are pivotal. Jatta’s pace and dribbling skills can break down defences, while Vieira’s vision and passing accuracy are instrumental in orchestrating Hamburger SV’s attacking plays. Defensively, Luka Vušković and Jordan Torunarigha form a formidable partnership at the back, combining strength and tactical awareness to thwart St. Pauli’s forwards.

Expected lineup for Hamburger SV

• Goalkeeper: Daniel Heuer Fernandes
• Defence: Immanuel Pherai, Luka Vušković, Jordan Torunarigha
• Midfield: Bakery Jatta, Fabio Vieira, Nicolai Remberg, Miro Muheim, Ransford Königsdörffer, Jean-Luc Dompé
• Forward: Damion Downs

The tactical impact of these players is significant. Philippe’s goal-scoring prowess provides an attacking edge, while Jatta and Vieira’s creativity in midfield could dictate the pace of the match. Defensively, Vušković and Torunarigha’s solidity is crucial in maintaining a clean sheet. The collective strengths of these key players can decisively influence the outcome of the game.

Hamburger SV Tactics and Formation

Hamburger SV Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Damion Downs
• Midfield Engine: Fabio Vieira and Nicolai Remberg
• Defensive Focus: Three-man backline with Immanuel Pherai, Luka Vušković, and Jordan Torunarigha
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and wing play with Jatta and Dompé.

Hamburger SV’s 3-4-2-1 formation is designed to maximise width and pressing intensity. With Bakery Jatta and Jean-Luc Dompé as wing-backs, the team can stretch the opposition and deliver crosses into the box, aiming to exploit Damion Downs’ aerial ability.

The midfield duo of Fabio Vieira and Nicolai Remberg plays a crucial role in transitioning from defence to attack, providing both defensive cover and creative outlets. Vieira’s vision and Remberg’s work rate are pivotal in maintaining possession and launching counterattacks.

Defensively, the three-man backline of Pherai, Vušković, and Torunarigha offers stability, though the absence of Nicolas Capaldo due to injury may affect defensive depth. The recent clean sheet against Borussia Mönchengladbach reflects their capability to maintain defensive discipline.

St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head record between St. Pauli and Hamburger SV, St. Pauli have a slight edge with 7 wins compared to Hamburg’s 6, alongside 4 draws. The last meeting saw St. Pauli triumph 2-0 away at Hamburg in the Bundesliga, showcasing their ability to perform on the road.

The last time these sides met at the Millerntor Stadion, it ended in a 2-2 draw back in December 2023 during the 2. Bundesliga. St. Pauli have shown strong form at home, having previously beaten Hamburg 3-0 in October 2022. This fixture often promises goals, with both teams having scored 26 goals each in their encounters.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Hamburger SV	St. Pauli	0 – 2	Bundesliga	2025-08-29
Hamburger SV	St. Pauli	1 – 0	2. Bundesliga	2024-05-03
St. Pauli	Hamburger SV	2 – 2	2. Bundesliga	2023-12-01
Hamburger SV	St. Pauli	4 – 3	2. Bundesliga	2023-04-21
St. Pauli	Hamburger SV	3 – 0	2. Bundesliga	2022-10-14