Independiente vs. San Lorenzo Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 21 September 2025

On 21 September 2025, the Liga Profesional sees Independiente face off against San Lorenzo at 18:30. This clash, part of round 9, is poised to be significant for both teams as they strive to correct their current trajectories.

Independiente, sitting 29th with just 3 points, are desperate for a turnaround. Under the stewardship of coach Carlos Matheu, they’ve shown defensive resilience with 2 clean sheets in their last 5 games but are struggling to score, averaging only 0.20 goals per game. In contrast, San Lorenzo, managed by Damián Ayude, stands 11th with 12 points, having scored 0.60 goals per game across their last 5 matches. Notably, key striker Alexis Cuello is sidelined due to a broken arm, impacting their attack significantly.

Both teams boast solid defenses, meaning goals could be at a premium. Historical data also suggests tight encounters, with less than 2.5 goals scored in 80% of their last 5 meetings. Given these factors, a draw seems a plausible result, aligning with our match tips. Further intensifying the contest, San Lorenzo is known to be dangerous in the final 15 minutes of play, a period where Independiente has also found joy, making the late stages crucial.

Independiente is favoured by bookmakers, with odds at 2.07 for a win, yet a tight, evenly-fought contest could indeed end in a share of the spoils given the recent form and injuries.

Independiente vs San Lorenzo Prediction & Betting Tip

Given the current form and historical matchups between Independiente and San Lorenzo, our recommended betting tip for this match is a draw. Both teams have solid defensive records recently, with the home team having 2 clean sheets and the away team with 3 in their last 5 games. Additionally, with less than 2.5 goals scored in 80% of their last 5 encounters, the possibility of a tight match is high.

• Independiente has struggled this season with no wins in their recent matches.
• San Lorenzo is also winless in their last two away games, hinting at a balanced contest.
• Historical data shows tight matches between these two, with a high likelihood of fewer goals.

Independiente vs San Lorenzo Odds

Independiente vs San Lorenzo brings us intriguing odds in this Liga Profesional matchup. Independiente, despite a difficult season, are the bookmakers’ favourites at 2.07. While they have struggled, their home advantage tips the scales slightly in their favour. San Lorenzo, who sits in a relatively comfortable 11th position, are offered at 4.08, making them a tempting underdog option. A draw, reflecting the balanced and low-scoring nature of recent encounters, is valued at 2.90.

Given the current standings and form, the draw at 2.90 is our recommended betting tip. Independiente’s struggles and San Lorenzo’s recent away form suggest a tight contest without a clear victor.

Independiente Team Analysis

Independiente Recent Performance

Independiente’s recent form has been less than stellar, encapsulated by their LLDLW record over the last five matches. They have managed only one point from those fixtures, drawing against Instituto and Universidad de Chile but losing to Banfield, Vélez Sarsfield, and Universidad de Chile again. This poor run sees them languishing in 29th place with just 3 points.

Their defence has shown some resilience, achieving 2 clean sheets in their last five matches. However, their attacking woes are glaring, with an average of a mere 0.20 goals scored per game. With key players like Felipe Loyola and Ignacio Pussetto struggling to find the net, the team has a lot riding on this matchup to kickstart their season.

Independiente’s focus will likely remain on shoring up their defences while hoping for a breakthrough up front to secure vital points.

Independiente Key Players

For Independiente, key contributions will need to come from players like Felipe Loyola and Ignacio Pussetto. Felipe Loyola, their top scorer, has netted 2 goals so far this season and operates crucially in the midfield. His vision and ball distribution will be vital in breaking down San Lorenzo’s resilient defence.

Ignacio Pussetto will also be keen to make his mark upfront, supported by wingers Walter Mazzantti and Santiago Montiel, who will aim to supply the ammunition from the flanks.

Expected lineup for Independiente:

• Goalkeeper: Rodrigo Rey
• Defenders: Federico Vera, Kevin Lomonaco, Sebastian Valdez, Facundo Zabala
• Midfielders: Felipe Loyola, Ivan Marcone, Walter Mazzantti, Lautaro Millan, Santiago Montiel
• Forward: Ignacio Pussetto

In this encounter, Pussetto’s switch with San Lorenzo’s solid defence led by Jhohan Romana could be decisive. Loyola will also have his hands full dealing with the dynamic midfield partnership of Nicolas Tripichio and Ignacio Perruzzi.

Independiente Suspensions & Injuries

At present, Independiente are fortunate to have no suspensions or injuries affecting their squad. This means coach Carlos Matheu has the luxury of selecting his strongest possible lineup for the clash against San Lorenzo.

The absence of injuries or suspensions allows Independiente to maintain consistency in their team selection, which is crucial for building momentum and improving their overall cohesion. In a season where every point counts, having a fully fit squad could be pivotal in salvaging their campaign from its current precarious position at 29th place.

A fully available roster gives Independiente the best chance to secure a much-needed positive result in this vital home game.

Independiente Tactics and Formation

Independiente will likely approach this match with a defensive mindset, leveraging their recent clean sheets. Under Carlos Matheu, they are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming to establish a solid defensive base while hoping to catch San Lorenzo on the break.

Independiente Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Ignacio Pussetto
• Midfield Duo: Felipe Loyola, Ivan Marcone
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in their last five games
• Notable Strategy: Strong finishing in the final 15 minutes of the game (76-90)

This setup sees Felipe Loyola playing a dual role; he’s crucial for both defensive stability and as a pivot for launching counter-attacks. The wings, occupied by Walter Mazzantti and Santiago Montiel, will be critical for stretching San Lorenzo’s back line and providing crosses for Pussetto.

San Lorenzo Team Analysis

San Lorenzo Recent Performance

San Lorenzo has had a mixed bag of results lately, indicated by their recent WLWDL form over the past five games. They secured victories against Instituto and Vélez Sarsfield but faltered with a loss against Racing Club and a draw with Huracan, in addition to an earlier defeat to Club Atletico Platense.

Despite these inconsistencies, they sit in a respectable 11th position with 12 points. Manager Damián Ayude will look to rectify their recent away form, having not won on the road in their last three trips.

San Lorenzo’s defence has been relatively sturdy, keeping 3 clean sheets in their last five matches. Their attack has been modest, averaging 0.60 goals per game, but their top striker, Alexis Cuello, remains sidelined due to injury, potentially impacting their scoring capabilities. They will need to find balance and consistency to climb higher in the standings.

The team’s resilience will be tested and they must rely on collective effort to overcome their current challenges.

San Lorenzo Key Players

San Lorenzo will look to key players like Ignacio Perruzzi and Ezequiel Cerutti to step up in the absence of their top scorer, Alexis Cuello. Ignacio Perruzzi, a crucial central midfielder, orchestrates much of the team’s play while providing a solid link between defence and attack. Ezequiel Cerutti, an experienced forward, is expected to fill in the goal-scoring void left by Cuello.

In defence, Jhohan Romana will be pivotal in maintaining the team’s recent solidity, having kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games.

Expected lineup for San Lorenzo:

• Goalkeeper: Orlando Gill
• Defenders: Fabricio Lopez, Jhohan Romana, Daniel Herrera, Elias Baez
• Midfielders: Nicolas Tripichio, Ignacio Perruzzi, Juan Rattalino
• Forwards: Ezequiel Cerutti, Andrés Vombergar, Alexis Cuello

A crucial battle will be between San Lorenzo’s robust defence and Independiente’s attackers like Loyola and Pussetto, potentially deciding the game’s outcome.

San Lorenzo Suspensions & Injuries

San Lorenzo faces a significant blow with the injury to their top scorer Alexis Cuello, who is out for the season with a broken arm. Cuello’s absence may affect their attacking potency, as he has been instrumental in getting goals and providing attacking thrust. This means that other forwards, such as Ezequiel Cerutti and Andrés Vombergar, will need to step up and fill the void.

Luckily for San Lorenzo, there are no suspensions affecting their squad, which allows manager Damián Ayude the flexibility to field his best available players despite Cuello’s injury. The team’s strategic adjustments will focus on maintaining defensive solidity while seeking new avenues in attack to compensate for the loss.

San Lorenzo Tactics and Formation

San Lorenzo will likely continue with their favoured 4-3-3 formation under the guidance of manager Damián Ayude. This setup allows them to balance between defensive solidity and forward thrust, despite dealing with the absence of Alexis Cuello.

San Lorenzo Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Ezequiel Cerutti
• Midfield Trio: Nicolas Tripichio, Ignacio Perruzzi, Juan Rattalino
• Defensive Strength: Three clean sheets in their last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Scoring most goals in the final 15 minutes of the game (76-90)

With Cuello sidelined, a lot will hinge on the effectiveness of Cerutti in attack and the creativity of Perruzzi in midfield. Defensively, they will rely heavily on the solidity of Jhohan Romana and Daniel Herrera to counter Independiente’s offensive attempts. San Lorenzo will aim to preserve their defensive resilience while seeking to capitalise on late-game opportunities to clinch points.

Independiente vs San Lorenzo Head-to-Head Statistics

The head-to-head record between Independiente and San Lorenzo over the last five encounters reveals a history of closely fought matches.

• 2025-03-08: San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente
• 2024-08-03: Independiente 0-0 San Lorenzo
• 2023-04-01: San Lorenzo 0-0 Independiente
• 2022-06-04: San Lorenzo 1-1 Independiente
• 2022-01-16: Independiente 0-1 San Lorenzo

Remarkably, 80% of these matches have seen fewer than 2.5 goals scored, indicating a tendency for low-scoring affairs. This pattern suggests a tight contest could be on the cards this time as well. Historically, neither side has dominated, leading to mostly draws and narrow victories.

Both teams have defensive setups, contributing to fewer goals and tighter games. With recent performances also hinting at conservative play, this fixture is expected to continue the trend of balanced outcomes with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

Odds accurate as of 19/09/2025 18:31, and are subject to change.
Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.