Toluca vs. Queretaro FC Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 19 October 2025

The scene is set for an interesting clash at Estadio Nemesio Diez as Toluca, the Liga MX leaders, host Queretaro FC. With Toluca perched comfortably at the top of the table with 28 points, their recent form has been nothing short of dominant. They have emerged victorious in their last five outings, scoring an average of 3.80 goals per game. Antonio Mohamed’s men, spearheaded by top-scorer Paulinho with 9 goals, will be looking to extend their winning streak.

Queretaro FC, on the other hand, are struggling towards the lower end of the league standings in 14th place with 11 points. Although recent form has shown some promise, with notable performances from their top scorer Santiago Homenchenko, their inconsistency remains a concern. They have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.7 goals on average this season.

Given the dominance of Toluca and Queretaro FC’s defensive struggles, a recommended bet of over 2.5 goals seems quite likely, with Toluca potentially scoring all the goals needed to cover that spread.

This match is pivotal for both teams for different reasons: Toluca to sustain their lead and Queretaro FC to claw their way up the standings.

Toluca vs Queretaro FC Prediction & Betting Tips

Toluca vs Queretaro FC Prediction
Betting tip
Over 2.5 goals

Toluca, the top scoring team in Liga MX, has showcased remarkable offensive prowess, tallying an average of 3.80 goals per game in their last five matches. With a winning streak of seven consecutive games across all competitions, their attack is undeniably formidable.

On the other hand, Queretaro FC has been vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match this season. Given Toluca’s dominance and Queretaro’s defensive struggles, our recommended betting tip is over 2.5 goals.

• Toluca’s attack is on fire, averaging 3.80 goals in their last five games.
• Queretaro FC concedes 1.7 goals per game on average.
• Toluca’s winning momentum makes them capable of covering the over 2.5 goals on their own.

Toluca vs Queretaro FC Odds

As we look forward to Toluca’s encounter with Queretaro FC, bookmakers have made Toluca the clear favourites. Currently sitting atop the Liga MX standings, Toluca’s impressive form makes them a strong bet for this match. Their dominant run of seven consecutive victories has only fortified their odds of winning. Here’s a breakdown of the betting odds:

Toluca vs Queretaro FC Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Toluca	1.19
Draw	6.64
Queretaro FC	11.12

Toluca’s odds reflect their current league-leading position and superior goal-scoring ability. Meanwhile, Queretaro FC, despite showing occasional promise, remains a long shot.

If you’re considering placing a bet, remember that with Toluca’s incredible recent form and Queretaro’s shaky defense, the likelihood of a Toluca victory seems high, or, as suggested earlier, a bet on over 2.5 goals.

Toluca Team Analysis

Toluca Recent Performance:

Toluca has been on a dazzling run of form, winning their last five matches across all competitions. In Liga MX Apertura, they have outclassed opponents like Leon and Mazatlan FC, while also triumphing over LA Galaxy in the Campeones Cup. Their recent results include:

• Leon 2-4 Toluca (2025-10-05)
• LA Galaxy 2-3 Toluca (2025-10-02, Campeones Cup)
• Toluca 3-1 Mazatlan FC (2025-09-28)
• Toluca 6-2 Monterrey (2025-09-25)
• CD Guadalajara 0-3 Toluca (2025-09-21)

This winning streak has been fueled by a potent attack, averaging 3.80 goals per game in their last five encounters. While their defense has managed only one clean sheet in this period, it has been their prolific goal-scoring that has set them apart. Antonio Mohamed’s side is clearly in top gear, making them a formidable opponent.

Toluca Key Players

Toluca’s key players have been at the forefront of their success this season, particularly their top scorer Paulinho, who has netted 9 goals so far. His clinical finishing and movement in the box make him a constant threat to any defense.

Another vital player is Alexis Vega, who contributes significantly from the left wing with his pace and creativity. Midfielder Helinho has also been pivotal, often acting as the engine of the team with his vision and passing range.

Defensively, Bruno Méndez and Federico Pereira form a solid central pairing, providing stability at the back. Despite only managing one clean sheet in their last five matches, their organized play and leadership have been key.

Here is the expected lineup for Toluca:

• Goalkeeper: Hugo Gonzalez
• Defenders: Santiago Simon, Bruno Méndez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo
• Midfielders: Franco Romero, Marcel Ruiz, Jesus Angulo, Helinho, Ernesto Alexis Vega
• Forward: Paulinho

This blend of experienced defenders and dynamic attackers makes Toluca a well-rounded and formidable side heading into this match.

Toluca Suspensions & Injuries

Toluca has been relatively fortunate on the injury front, with only one major absentee. Luan is sidelined with a groin injury and is expected to return in early January 2026. Despite his absence, Toluca has managed to maintain their attacking prowess and defensive solidity.

There are no suspensions reported for Toluca, allowing head coach Antonio Mohamed to field his strongest lineup. The injury to Luan means increased responsibilities for other defenders like Bruno Méndez and Federico Pereira, who will need to maintain their form to keep the backline tight.

Overall, Toluca appears well-prepared and almost at full strength as they seek to extend their winning streak.

Toluca Tactics and Formation

Toluca has been exceptionally effective with their tactical setup under Antonio Mohamed. They typically deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, which allows them to balance offensive and defensive responsibilities efficiently.

Toluca Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Paulinho, with 9 goals this season, leads the attack.
• Midfield Duo: Franco Romero and Marcel Ruiz provide a robust defensive shield while also aiding in transition phases.
• Attacking Midfield Trio: Jesus Angulo, Helinho, and Alexis Vega contribute creatively and have a significant impact in the final third.
• Defensive Unit: Despite only one clean sheet in their last five games, the backline of Santiago Simon, Bruno Méndez, Federico Pereira, and Jesus Gallardo ensures stability.
• Notable Strategy: Toluca has been exceptionally strong in the late stages of matches, particularly in the 76-90 and 16-30-minute intervals.

Their potent attack and strategic flexibility make them a formidable opponent for any team.

Queretaro FC Team Analysis

Queretaro FC Recent Performance:

Queretaro FC has shown mixed form in their recent matches, with their last five games reflecting 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw.

Their performances include:

• Queretaro FC 3-1 Puebla (2025-10-04)
• Queretaro FC 0-2 Tigres (2025-09-28)
• Cruz Azul 2-2 Queretaro FC (2025-09-25)
• Pachuca 0-2 Queretaro FC (2025-09-20)
• Queretaro FC 0-1 Monterrey (2025-09-14)

Despite having defensive inconsistencies, evidenced by conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game and only securing one clean sheet in their last five matches, Queretaro has shown potential in attack, scoring an average of 1.40 goals per game.

This fluctuating performance highlights their occasional brilliance but underscores the need for greater consistency and defensive solidity if they aim to move up the league standings.

Queretaro FC Key Players

Key players for Queretaro FC have been vital in their attempts to climb the Liga MX standings. Notably, top scorer Santiago Homenchenko has scored 4 goals this season, providing a consistent attacking threat. His ability to find the back of the net will be crucial if Queretaro FC aims to trouble Toluca’s defense.

In midfield, players like Jhojan Julio and Michael Carcelén have been influential, offering both defensive cover and creative support. At the back, Francisco Venegas will need to be at his best to repel Toluca’s potent attacking line-up.

Expected lineup for Queretaro FC:

• Goalkeeper: Guillermo Allison
• Defenders: Jaime Gomez, Diego Reyes, Santiago Homenchenko, Francisco Venegas
• Midfielders: Angel Zapata, Jhojan Julio, Rodrigo Bogarín, Michael Carcelén, Lucas Rodriguez
• Forward: Ali Avila

This lineup will need to deliver a cohesive performance to counteract Toluca’s formidable form.

Queretaro FC Suspensions & Injuries

Queretaro FC has a few significant absences to contend with ahead of their match against Toluca. Federico Lertora is doubtful due to a calf injury, and Aldahir Perez is also a doubtful participant due to a concussion, both injuries potentially weakening their lineup. Moreover, the suspension of Mateo Coronel due to a red card means he will miss this match, further affecting the depth and flexibility of the squad.

These absences could strain Queretaro’s defensive and midfield units, making it more challenging to handle Toluca’s relentless attacking force. Coach Benjamin Mora will need to make strategic adjustments to mitigate the impact of these key player losses.

Queretaro FC Tactics and Formation

Queretaro FC generally operates within a 4-2-3-1 formation under coach Benjamin Mora. This setup aims to balance defensive solidity with an agile attacking approach. However, their inconsistency has been a recurring issue.

Queretaro FC Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Ali Avila, expected to lead the attack and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Toluca.
• Midfield Core: Angel Zapata and Rodrigo Bogarín are pivotal in defensive shielding as well as transitioning play from defense to attack.
• Attacking Support: Jhojan Julio and Michael Carcelén contribute by pressing high and supporting Avila upfront.
• Defensive Line: The back four of Jaime Gomez, Diego Reyes, Santiago Homenchenko, and Francisco Venegas must tighten up, especially given Queretaro’s average of conceding 1.7 goals per game.

Despite facing injuries and a suspension, Queretaro FC will look to leverage their midfield strength and pressing game to challenge Toluca’s strong attack. Consistency and defensive robustness will be essential if they aim to secure a positive result.

Toluca vs Queretaro FC Head-to-Head Statistics

Over the past five encounters between Toluca and Queretaro FC, Toluca has had the upper hand with three wins, one draw, and one loss. The most recent fixture saw Toluca dominate with a 5-0 victory on February 27, 2025.

Last 5 Meetings:

• 2025-02-27: Toluca 5-0 Queretaro FC (Liga MX Clausura)
• 2024-10-19: Queretaro FC 0-1 Toluca (Liga MX Apertura)
• 2024-01-13: Queretaro FC 2-2 Toluca (Liga MX Clausura)
• 2023-10-08: Toluca 3-1 Queretaro FC (Liga MX Apertura)
• 2023-03-06: Queretaro FC 1-0 Toluca (Liga MX Clausura)

Toluca’s dominant performances reflect their current top form, while Queretaro has struggled to find consistency. This head-to-head history suggests that Toluca holds the psychological edge going into this fixture. The teams’ historical outcomes, along with Toluca’s current streak, make the hosts clear favourites for this upcoming match.

Odds accurate as of 17/10/2025 00:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.