São Paulo vs. Bahia Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 26 October 2025

The clash between São Paulo and Bahia on 26 October 2025 in the Serie A is a crucial fixture, especially for both teams’ ambitions in the league. São Paulo, positioned 9th with 38 points, desperately need a win to climb the standings and keep their hopes alive for a continental competition spot. Meanwhile, Bahia, sitting comfortably in 5th place with 49 points, aim to consolidate their position and possibly break into the top 4. With key players missing due to injuries and suspensions on both sides, tactical acumen will be vital. Our match prediction leans towards a competitive encounter with goals from both sides, making a bet on "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at odds of 1.90 a wise choice. Given São Paulo’s scoring record at home and Bahia’s recent strong performances, we can expect an engaging fixture that holds significance for both teams in the broader narrative of the Serie A season.

São Paulo vs Bahia Prediction & Betting Tip

• São Paulo and Bahia, despite having contrasting recent forms, both have vulnerable defenses, especially with key defenders sidelined.
• Historical clashes between these teams often see goals with both sides hitting the net.
• Playing at home, São Paulo has a strong chance of scoring, while Bahia’s solid recent performance suggests they will also find the net.

Given the defensive absences and attacking intent from both sides, the bet on "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at odds of 1.90 is a sound choice.

São Paulo vs Bahia Odds

When looking at the odds for the upcoming match between São Paulo and Bahia, it’s clear that São Paulo is the bookmaker’s favorite with odds of 1.89 for a home win. This makes sense given São Paulo’s historical strength at home, despite their recent struggles. The odds of 3.31 for a draw and 4.13 for a Bahia victory suggest that the away team is considered the underdog, although Bahia’s recent form shows they are not to be underestimated. Given São Paulo’s inconsistencies and injuries, as well as Bahia’s recent wins, there is potential value in these odds across different outcomes. Keep an eye on how both teams line up before making a decision.

São Paulo Team Analysis

São Paulo Recent Performance

São Paulo have struggled recently, with a run of three consecutive losses. Their latest results read as follows:

• Mirassol 3 – 0 São Paulo (away)
• Gremio 2 – 0 São Paulo (away)
• São Paulo 2 – 3 Palmeiras (home)
• Fortaleza 0 – 2 São Paulo (away)
• São Paulo 0 – 1 Ceara (home)

This form, represented as LWLLL, highlights their inconsistent performances, particularly in defense as they’ve only managed one clean sheet in their last five games. Moreover, their attacking prowess has been subpar, averaging just 0.80 goals per game in this period. Injuries to key players have further compounded their woes. Despite these challenges, playing at home could offer some respite, as São Paulo have scored in 71% of their matches at home this season.

São Paulo Key Players

São Paulo will be relying heavily on their key attacking players, especially Luciano Neves, who has netted 6 goals this season. Luciano, paired with Gonzalo Tapia up front, will need to step up with the absence of other key forwards like Jonathan Calleri and Juan Dinenno, who are sidelined due to injuries. In midfield, eyes will be on the creativity and control of Marcos Antonio and Damian Bobadilla. Their ability to feed the forwards and control the tempo will be crucial in breaking down Bahia’s defense. On the defensive end, the absence of Nahuel Ferraresi, serving a suspension, means added responsibility for Robert Arboleda and Alan Franco. Expected lineup for São Paulo:

• Goalkeeper: Rafael
• Defenders: Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino
• Midfielders: Maik, Damian Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Enzo Díaz, Marcos Antonio
• Forwards: Luciano, Gonzalo Tapia
  This lineup will have to work cohesively to overcome their recent poor form and deliver a solid performance against a robust Bahia side.

São Paulo Suspensions & Injuries

São Paulo face significant challenges with a number of key players sidelined due to injuries. Notable absences include Jonathan Calleri, Ryan Francisco, and André Silva, all out for the season with cruciate ligament injuries. Additionally, Luan Santos, Rafael Toloi, Oscar, Cedric Soares, Wendell, and Juan Dinenno are also unavailable due to various injuries and won’t be returning until early November or later. The suspension of Nahuel Ferraresi for yellow card accumulation further thins their defensive options. These absences will force Hernán Crespo to shuffle his lineup and may strain their overall team performance, especially in maintaining defensive solidity and attacking threat.

São Paulo Tactics and Formation

São Paulo Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-1-2
• Key Forwards: Luciano Neves, Gonzalo Tapia
• Midfield Quartet: Maik, Damian Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Enzo Díaz
• Defensive Core: Rafael (Goalkeeper), Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino
• Notable Strategy: High attacking intent in the final 15 minutes, with most goals coming in the 76-90 minute interval
  The 3-4-1-2 formation allows São Paulo to balance their defense while providing ample support to their attackers. Playing Marcos Antonio in an advanced midfield role is crucial for transitioning from defense to attack. However, São Paulo will need to be cautious of their defensive vulnerabilities, especially with multiple key players injured and Ferraresi suspended. Their ability to exploit late-game opportunities could be key to overcoming Bahia’s disciplined defense.

Bahia Team Analysis

Bahia Recent Performance

Bahia come into this match in good form, having won three of their last five games. Their recent fixtures include:

• Bahia 1 – 0 Internacional (home)
• Bahia 4 – 0 Gremio (home)
• Vitoria 2 – 1 Bahia (away)
• Bahia 1 – 0 Flamengo (home)
• Botafogo RJ 2 – 1 Bahia (away)

This form, noted as LWLWW, highlights their strong home performances, particularly their solid defensive play, keeping three clean sheets in their last five matches. On average, Bahia have scored 1.60 goals per game in this period, showcasing their attacking capabilities. These stats illustrate a team brimming with confidence, making them a formidable opponent for São Paulo, despite playing away from home.

Bahia Key Players

Bahia will be looking to maintain their strong form with several key players taking center stage. Willian José, their top scorer with 7 goals, will lead the attacking line and pose a significant threat to the São Paulo defense. Alongside him, Mateo Sanabria and Ademir Santos will be crucial in creating scoring opportunities and putting pressure on São Paulo’s defense. In midfield, Nicolas Acevedo and Jean Lucas are expected to drive the tempo and maintain their team’s structure, while Michel Araújo offers a creative spark that can unlock defenses. Defensively, the responsibility falls on Gabriel Xavier and Santi Ramos Mingo to keep things tight at the back and protect their goalkeeper Ronaldo, who has been solid in the recent matches. Expected lineup for Bahia:

• Goalkeeper: Ronaldo
• Defenders: Gilberto, Gabriel Xavier, Santi Ramos Mingo, Luciano Juba
• Midfielders: Jean Lucas, Nicolas Acevedo, Michel Araujo
• Forwards: Ademir Santos, Willian Jose, Mateo Sanabria
  This lineup showcases a balanced squad ready to exploit São Paulo’s defensive gaps and come away with a positive result.

Bahia Suspensions & Injuries

Bahia have a few key players sidelined due to injuries, which could impact their performance against São Paulo. Caio Alexandre and João Paulo are both out with thigh and knee injuries, respectively, and are expected to return in early November. Additionally, Erick Pulga is also nursing a thigh injury but might return in a few weeks. A significant absence is Éverton Ribeiro, who is battling cancer but is hopeful for a return around early November. These absences, especially in midfield, may reduce their creative options and overall depth, putting additional pressure on the fit squad members to step up and maintain their recent good form.

Bahia Tactics and Formation

Bahia Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Willian Jose
• Midfield Trio: Jean Lucas, Nicolás Acevedo, Michel Araújo
• Defensive Strength: Three clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Disciplined defense and resilient performance, often controlling the game tempo

Bahia’s 4-3-3 formation allows them to maintain a balanced approach, with robust defensive setups complemented by swift attacking transitions. Willian José spearheads the attack, flanked by Ademir Santos and Mateo Sanabria, making them a formidable offensive unit. Jean Lucas, Nicolás Acevedo, and Michel Araújo form the midfield trio responsible for dictating play and breaking opposition lines. Given their recent form, Bahia’s disciplined defense and solid teamwork will be essential in countering São Paulo’s home advantage.

São Paulo vs Bahia Head-to-Head Statistics

Analyzing the recent head-to-head encounters between São Paulo and Bahia provides valuable insights into what we can expect from their upcoming match. The last five meetings between these two sides have been quite competitive:

• Bahia 2 – 1 São Paulo (31 May 2025, Serie A)
• Bahia 0 – 3 São Paulo (6 November 2024, Serie A)
• São Paulo 3 – 1 Bahia (30 June 2024, Serie A)
• Bahia 0 – 1 São Paulo (29 November 2023, Serie A)
• São Paulo 0 – 0 Bahia (30 July 2023, Serie A)

São Paulo historically holds the advantage with three wins, one draw, and one loss over these five matches. Notably, these fixtures often see goals from both sides, highlighting the attacking intent typically displayed in this pairing. This pattern suggests an exciting and open game, particularly with the current form and defensive absences on both teams’ sides.

Odds accurate as of 24/10/2025 02:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.