UFC 251: Amanda Ribas vs Paige VanZant Preview

Can you make a case for 6.50 underdog Paige Vanzant?

With every fight, the odds reflect the consensus as to what chance of winning both combatants involved have. Going against the public’s general narrative can usually give you some value, but doing so has to be justifiable. So let’s ask ourselves: is there a chance for VanZant to pull off the upset here?

To answer this question the best we can, we need to take into account both girls fighting abilities. VanZant is 8-4 in her professional career with a record of 5-3 inside the UFC. After winning her first three in the UFC, she would face defeat for the second time against Rose Namajunas, being submitted in the fifth round by ‘Thug’. VanZant would bounce back with a highlight knockout over Bec Rawlings but would lose her next two in a row. Now, ’12 Gauge’ is coming off a submission win over Rachael Ostovich and has some momentum going for her.

The thing is, I think Paige’s commitment to fighting is what may be keeping her from being at the top of her division. She has been very open about making more money from her Instagram, than from fighting, and I don’t think she is fighting for the same reasons as Amanda Ribas is. I feel like Paige is taking this fight to remain in the media, whereas Ribas is fighting to become champion. When you really think about it, there aren’t many reasons for Paige to still be fighting. She has had multiple surgeries on her arm which she has broken more than once, and if she is making a living outside of the cage, there really isn’t a reason to keep risking your brain’s health every time she fights. However, she took this fight against a very game opponent, so hats off to her. Paige is best when she is on her feet and using her kicks and unorthodox striking to best her opponents. On the ground, however, is a different story. Paige is way too easy to take down and has been taken down at least twice in all of her UFC fights, except for her fight with Bec Rawlings where she won via KO. What’s very worrisome for me is that VanZant hasn’t managed to get up after being taken down in her last three fights, and she has been taken down 7 times. She has either been saved by the bell or the referee every time she has been taken down. Even in the fight that she won against Rachael Ostovich, she was taken down four times.

Paige is a flashy striker but looks for the highlight knockout way too much when she fights. Against Jessica-Rose Clark she attempted the same jumping switch kick at least five times, and it didn’t land once. She also lacks proper striking defense and usually gets clipped by a simple one-two. Against a prospect like Amanda Ribas, she is going to be punished if she continuously attempts spinning elbows and jumping kicks. I see this fight hitting the mat more than once, and I think Ribas will be on top, ground and pounding VanZant.

Amanda’s boxing is too slick for Paige and her ground game is solid. I don’t see a path to victory for Paige expect if she gets a crazy KO early in the fight. Fundamentally, Amanda’s boxing is much more developed than Paige’s and this is why I think Paige will lose this fight.

All in all, I don’t think there are enough good reasons to make Paige VanZant worth a punt in the H2H market.

You can still find value on VanZant, but…

Despite everything I just mentioned, you always have a puncher’s chance, and that’s why picking Paige to win via KO at odds 12.00 actually has some value. In MMA, you can never say that any fighter beats another fighter 10 out of 10 times. You can get cut or knocked out, or you can get injured, as we saw in the Barber-Modafferi fight. I think VanZant’s only chance of winning is via KO, and at odds 12.00 it could be worth a punt. However, I would recommend looking to the favorite for valued markets, such as Ribas to win via decision at odds 2.10.

If you’re into the more fun, high-risk bets, place a small wager on Paige, but if you’re more about intelligent betting, I think Ribas by a decision is the way to go.