Claudia Gadelha vs Angela Hill Betting Tip & Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Claudia Gadelha vs Angela Hill preview: betting tips and prediction

Preview updated May 15th 2020.

The UFC returns to Jacksonvilla, Florida for the third time in seven days this Sunday. UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris is coming up! We’ve got the predictions and betting tips for the fights. In the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris, Angela Hill takes on Claudia Gadelha in the women’s strawweight division. Let’s get into the prediction for this fight.

Claudia Gadelha

“Claudinha”

Claudia Gadelha is 31 years old. She is 160 cm tall and weighs 52 kg with a reach of 160 cm. She fights in the orthodox stance with an average fighting time of 14:48. Gadelha has seventeen wins and four losses in her MMA career. In the UFC she has six wins and four losses. Her victories consist of two knockouts, seven submissions and eight decisions. Meanwhile, she has only lost via decision. Gadelha is primarily a grappler, but she can also strike. She lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defence of 58%. She absorbs 4.38 punches every minute on average and lands 42% of the strikes she throws. Her grappling stats are more impressive, as she lands 3.34 takedowns every fifteen minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 47% and she defends against every six out of ten of her opponents’ attempts to get her to the ground. Finally, Gadelha has a submission average of 0.8. She has won three and lost two of her last five fights. She is coming off a win heading into this fight.

Angela Hill

“Overkill”

Angela Hill is fighting in the women’s strawweight division. She is 35 years old and stands 160 cm tall. She weighs 52 kg and has a reach of 162 cm. Hill fights in orthodox with an average fighting time of 12:45. Her professional record consists of twelve wins and seven losses. In the UFC she has fought for the majority of her career. She has seven wins and seven losses in the UFC. Angela has won five fights via knockout and seven fights via decision. Meanwhile, she has lost two fights via submission and five fights via decision. She has a high output and lands 5.74 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.13. Her striking accuracy is 49% and her defence is 64%. This means that Angela Hill lands about half of the strikes she throws and only absorbs a four out of ten that is thrown at her. Hill will be looking to extend her three-fight win streak in her fight against Claudia Gadelha.

Striking

Let’s crunch some numbers and see who holds the striking advantage in this matchup.

Hill lands 5.74 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.13. She lands 49% of her punches and defends herself against 64% thrown against her.

Claudia Gadelha lands 3.17 punches per minute which is 42% of strikes she throws. She absorbs 4.38 punches per minute which means that she absorbs more punches that she throws. She defends herself against 58% of her opponents’ punches.

Angela Hill has 5 wins via KO while Gadelha only has 2. Hill is the superior striker in this matchup. However, this is a mixed martial arts fights and the fight can hit the canvas. Who has the advantage then?

Grappling

Again, we crunch some numbers to see who has the grappling advantage.

Angela Hill lands 0.50 takedowns every fifteen minutes and lands 37% of her takedowns (6 out of 16 attempted). She has defended 72% of takedowns ever attempted against her. Hill has a submission average of 0.2 per fifteen minutes.

Claudia Gadelha has a significantly higher takedown average than Hill at 3.34. This means that “Claudinha” lands about 3 or more takedowns in every fight she’s in. She also has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defence of 58%. Finally, her submission average per fifteen minutes is 0.8.

You can go ahead and count of Gadelha’s takedown defence, because you can be sure that she isn’t going to be needing it for this fight. Looking at the numbers, is obvious that Gadelha holds the advantage in grappling.

Hill vs. Gadelha prediction

The classic striker vs grappler matchup.. It will be Hill, the striker, dictating the dance if the fight stays on the feet. However, Hill needs to outstrike Gadelha by a mile if she wants to win this fight on the scorecards, to make up for takedowns made against her. Gadelha lands about 3 takedowns in every fight and Hill has been taken down 14 times in her UFC career alone. Gadelha is the much better grappler and she needs to get Hill to the ground to win this fight. Strikers will always struggle against opponents who have a wrestling advantage. The striker will anticipate the takedown which draws focus away from the strikes being thrown at them. Hill might be the better striker, but Gadelha holds a major grappling advantage here.

Prediction: Claudia Gadelha beats Angela Hill.

Gadelha vs. Hill betting guide

Hill is quite a big underdog in this fight with odds 2.75. This means bookies give her a 36% chance of winning. Gadelha, on the other hand, is the favorite with odds 1.47. Bookmakers give Claudia a 68% chance of winning. Angela HIll is no stranger to losing fights as she has lost 37% of her professional fights. Gadelha has the grappling to give Hill big problems and we see the fight going that way. Gadelha has also never been finished which is pretty big when you’re facing a striker like Hill. It significantly lowers the chance of her getting finished if she hasn’t been finished before. Gadelha has only lost to the best in the division: Joanna twice, Jessica Andrade and Nina Ansaroff.

The valued pick is the favorite in this matchup. There are simply too many strong cases to make against the underdog, Angela HIll. However, H2H the value isn’t quite sufficient. We prefer picking Gadelha to win via decision, as the makes for a bit more valued bets (around odds 1.95). Gadelha is no finisher and Hill isn’t easy to finish. Generally, finishes happen rarely in this weight class too.

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