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baseball | Friday, April 22, 2022 8:44 AM (Revised at: Friday, April 22, 2022 2:02 PM)

MLB Best Bets: Friday April 22nd

MLB Best Bets: Friday April 22nd
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The 2022 MLB season is hitting its stride. Friday night is packed with action. On a slate loaded with intriguing matchups, we’ve picked out the two best bets, featuring a Hall of Fame ace and a breakout candidate for the reigning champions.

MLB Best Bets Friday, April 23rd

  • Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins: Atlanta Braves -1.5 runs at 2.38
  • Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays: Houston Astros leading after five innings at 1.77

Odds as of 11am April 22nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Best Bet

April 22, 00:20 (UK time)

In the bottom 10 in runs scored once again, the Miami Marlins’ offence hasn’t lived up to its billing through the first few weeks. Their xwOBA suggests they’ve been a bit unlucky to date, but with some cold bats in the line up they face a challenging matchup on Friday night against former top prospect Kyle Wright.

Having long looked like a bust, Wright’s Major League career was hanging in the balance coming into this season. His numbers in The Show have been downright ugly to date, but a small sample of two starts this year points to Wright as a possible big-time breakout candidate.

An expected ERA of 1.45 is clearly not sustainable, yet he’s a new pitcher in 2022. He’s found 1.4mph on his fastball and started throwing his curve and change a lot more to great early success.

Atlanta comes into this series with just one win in four, but offensive struggles against the Padres and Dodgers are not necessarily indicative of what happens against this Marlins team.

As great as Trevor Rogers was last season, he’s started this year poorly, surrendering five walks in just 6.2 innings. Even if Rogers keeps things tidy, Miami’s bullpen has already been shaky.

The Braves can have real confidence in Wright after how he’s started this season. They are fourth in barrel rate so far in 2022, even if they haven’t necessarily got the offensive production to match that contact. This is a good matchup for the Braves to start their homestand with a comfortable win.

  • Selection: Atlanta Braves -1.5 runs
  • Best Odds: 2.38 (SkyBet)
  • Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 11am April 22nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins betting tips

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

Sat, Apr 23, 01:10 (UK time)

The Blue Jays offence is going to torment a lot of pitchers this season. They are only middle of the pack in xwOBA and hard hit rate thus far, however, and they face a former Cy Young winner in Justin Verlander on Friday night.

Verlander has been exceptional in his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s looked just like his old self with barely any change to his velocity – he’s still dominating hitters. The former Tiger has struck out 15 in 13 innings and is coming off eight shutout frames against the Mariners.

Ross Stripling is on the bump for the Jays, making just his second start of the year after a couple of relief appearances to begin the campaign. He looked better starting than he did coming out the bullpen, but his inability to generate swing and misses could prove problematic against this Astros line up. Only five teams chased less often than Houston last season, and their swings made contact more frequently than any other team.

Both of these offences are dangerous and deep. When we look at this as a straight matchup of starting pitching, though, it’s clear that the Astros have a considerable advantage. Verlander clearly has no rust to work through despite not pitching since 2020.

There’s definitely value in backing the Astros to be leading after five innings. It’s a shorter price than the moneyline, but this is definitely a better bet as it avoids the risk of Vlad Guerrero Jr and co mounting a comeback against Houston’s relievers.

  • Selection: Houston Astros lead after five innings
  • Best Odds: 1.77 (Unibet)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 11am April 22nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays betting tips

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