MLB Best Bets: Friday, April 29th
Our eyes are on Guaranteed Rate Field and Globe Life Field for Friday night’s best MLB bets. There’s a marquee pitching matchup in Chicago to get stuck into and the reigning champions are in action in Texas.
MLB Best Bets Friday, April 29th
- Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels: Under 7 runs at 1.87
- Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves: Braves -1.5 at 2.10
Odds as of 3 pm April 29th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Best Bet
Apr 30, 00:10 (UK)
The Angels took a risk on Noah Syndergaard this offseason, but the early indications are it was worthwhile. The former Met is averaging 95mph on his fastball and ranks in the 90th percentile in expected slugging allowed. While the strikeout totals might not return to his peak levels, Syndergaard has exhibited solid control, walking just 6% of hitters.
His 2.21 xERA faces a test in the shape of the White Sox on Friday night. Chicago is just 7-11 on the season and ranks 26th in runs scored, but their team xwOBA is 7th-best in the Majors, suggesting they have had some misfortune in the opening weeks. Los Angeles is third in the same category.
Syndergaard matches up with Lucas Giolito, who has earned Cy Young votes in each of the last three seasons. He owns a 1.19 FIP through two starts in 2022. While these two offences are making a lot of hard contact, this has the makings of a pitchers’ duel. Offence is down across MLB so far this season, pair that with two ace-level pitchers on the mound, and we’re looking at a low-scoring game in the Windy City.
The total is set at seven for this one, which seems on the low side. There was under seven total runs in three of the Angels’ four games against Cleveland, however, and the under has cashed in five of the White Sox’s nine home games thus far. There’s value on under seven here – both Syndergaard and Giolito can keep the offences quiet.
- Selection: Under 7 total runs
- Best Odds:
- Stakes: 7/10
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Best Bet
Apr 30, 01:05 (UK)
Ian Anderson is on the bump for the World Series champion Atlanta Braves at Globe Life Field. Anderson’s 5.40 ERA is a bit misleading in the early going – the former first-round pick has an xERA of 3.44. He faces a Rangers offence which ranks 20th in xwOBA and team OPS in 2022.
Garrett Richards gets the ball for Texas, and his early numbers are the opposite. A 2.25 ERA has been reliant on good fortune. Richards has an xERA of 4.99, and career-long control issues have returned with a walk rate over 16%.
Facing a Braves offence which is second in xwOBA and ninth in team OPS, Richards is in for a difficult night. Atlanta welcomed Ronald Acuna Jr back this week and completed a 5-1 win over Chicago on Thursday night. Matt Olson and Austin Riley have been red-hot to start the season, too. Even if Richards can keep them in the game, the Rangers’ third-worst bullpen ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence against a potent Braves offence.
The Rangers are off to a poor start this season, owning a 6-13 record. They are also just 4-6 on the runline through the first few weeks of the campaign with Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun and Marcus Semien all starting the year slowly.
Each of Atlanta’s last seven wins have come by two or more runs. It’s an offence which can build a lead when it gets on top of a pitcher, and we’re backing them to do exactly that against Richards on Friday night.
- Selection: Braves -1.5
- Best Odds:
- Stakes: 6/10