MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Friday July 15th

The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies for a three-game set before the All-Star break. Miami is just two behind the Phils in the loss column and they come into this matchup on a 10-5 streak. Philadelphia lost its last four, scoring just nine runs in the process. Bryce Harper and Jean Segura remain sidelined, but J.T. Realmuto returns for this series after missing the games in Toronto.

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: July 15th

• Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Miami Marlins to win

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet

Fri, Jul 15. 23:40 (UK time)

Miami is betting favourites for Friday’s game with Sandy Alcantara taking the mound against Kyle Gibson. The frontrunner in the National League Cy Young race, Alcantara is second among all pitchers in fWAR. He’s having something of a throwback season, pitching seven or more innings in his last 12 starts. As a result, he’s thrown 12 frames more than any other pitcher in the sport, and he’s allowed a mere four earned runs across 14 innings against the Phillies in 2022.

Alcantara is yet to concede a run across 15 innings in July. His overpowering fastball paired with a slider and changeup has left plenty of hitters looking foolish this season. This isn’t the guy you want to face when the offence is slumping.

The same cannot be said for Gibson. While seven innings of two-hit ball against the Cardinals last time out could be viewed as a breakthrough performance, the veteran’s rolling xwOBA still paints a pretty ugly picture. Prior to that outing, he had given up 23 earned runs in six starts. The Phils have managed to win a few of those games, and have won 10 of Gibson’s 17 starts this year. Their offence will not be able to dig them out of a hole against Alcantara, though.

Plus, it’s not like the Phillies will get a good look at Miami’s middle relief. Alcantara is pitching into the late innings in every start, carrying his team to wins. The Marlins have won 10 of his last 12 starts.

Interestingly, both of these offences have been poor against right-handers over the last month. Philadelphia’s wRC+ is 84. Miami is at 80. Neither team is hitting the ball particularly hard nor walking frequently.

The Marlins have been the better team over the last few weeks even with an inconsistent offence. They also have the best pitcher in the sport on the mound. It’s a no-brainer to back the home team for this one. A team under .500 doesn’t necessarily seem a great bet at odds on, but there’s far more to consider here, and it would take a brave bettor to go against Alcantara at the moment.

• Selection: Miami Marlins Moneyline
• Best Odds: 1.73(Boyle Sports)
• Stakes: 8/10

Odds as of 3:00 pm July 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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