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baseball | Friday, July 1, 2022 10:12 AM (Revised at: Friday, July 1, 2022 2:15 PM)

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Friday July 1st

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Friday July 1st
Contributor: Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

The San Francisco Giants and Chicago White Sox begin their three-game series in The Bay on Friday night. San Francisco hasn’t been playing its best baseball of late, dropping games to several losing teams, but they still hold a five-game advantage over the White Sox in the loss column.

MLB Best Bet: July 1st

  • San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox: San Francisco to win

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox Best Bet

Sat, July 2nd. 03:15 (UK time).

Narrowly favoured at 8/11 with Coral, the Giants are on a 3-7 run despite facing the Tigers and Reds in the last two series. Alex Cobb, sporting an ERA well above five, gets the ball on Friday, which doesn’t exactly inspire a great deal of confidence. Cobb, however, has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league – he’s got a 2.33 xERA. The poor defence which has partly been responsible is not going to magically improve, but Cobb has also faced some incredible batted ball misfortune. He’s above average when it comes to strikeouts and walks. The former Ray faces a White Sox lineup with just a team 89 wRC+ against righties.

Lance Lynn is making just his fourth appearance of the year for the ChiSox. It’s not been a happy return for Lynn – he’s lost over a mile per hour off his fastball, and he’s using his cutter far less frequently, despite the pitch being very effective last season. It’s a small sample, but the 5.08 xERA is a reflection of how Lynn has pitched. He allowed five earned runs to the Orioles last time out.

The Giants offence is equipped to get after Lynn. They are the ninth-most productive team against right-handers in 2022. Crucially, they are also the second-best hitting team when facing fastballs. Lynn is almost purely a fastball pitcher with around 80% of his pitches being the four-seamer, sinker or cutter. The Giants have not been as effective offensively as last season, but they can still roll out lefty-heavy lineups to torment righty starters.

Just as the hitters haven’t been producing like the 107-win team, the Giants’ bullpen has been shakier, too. They still have an advantage in that department over the White Sox, however, with Tony LaRussa’s team sitting 24th in wins above average from their relief corps. This isn’t a group that will shut down the Giants even if Lynn can give them an early lead.

San Francisco has slumped, yet so have the ChiSox, winning just four of their last 12. Both teams aren’t playing their best at the moment, but the Giants have fundamentally been the better of the ballclubs so far in 2022.

Reputation and ERA might not make it look like the Giants have the upper hand with this pitching matchup. Cobb has been far better than his record indicates, though, and we’re backing him to lead the Giants to an important series-opening win.

  • Selection: San Francisco Giants Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.72 (Bwin)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 12:20 am July 1st, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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