MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Friday, June 10h

Fresh off a surprising sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Milwaukee Brewers head on the road to face another National League East opponent in the shape of the Washington Nationals on Friday night. The Brewers are slight favourites for game one of the three-game set in the capital.

MLB Best Bet: June 10th

• Washington vs Milwaukee: Milwaukee Brewers to win

Odds as of 1:00 pm June 10th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Washington vs Milwaukee Best Bet

Aaron Ashby, the latest pitcher off Milwaukee’s production line, takes the bump for the road team. He matches up with Erick Fedde, a soft-tossing right-hander making his 12th start of the 2022 season.

Both of these teams are middling offences by their quality of contact. Each rank in the middle third of MLB teams in xwOBA, and Milwaukee has just a 103 wRC+ against righties. The Nationals have struggled against southpaws like Ashby, sitting at 90 wRC+ as a team.

The Brewers’ main weakness against right-handers has been their tendency to strike out (23.7% strikeout rate, seventh-highest in MLB), but Fedde is unlikely to take advantage. The former first-round pick has struck out just 18.6% of hitters.

If you’re not going to strike many guys out, it’s important to avoid giving up too many free passes. Fedde has not been able to do that. He’s in the 23rd percentile in walk rate, allowing over 10% of hitters to reach via the base on balls.

The walk is going to be a factor on both sides of this matchup. Washington is bottom-10 in walk rate this term despite the presence of Juan Soto, but forcing Ashby to find the zone is going to be key. Allowing walks is the second-year pitcher’s greatest weakness – he’s walked 11.2% of hitters in 2022.

Ashby conceded four earned runs in his last start, which was his second-worst outing of the season. He’s been cruising through innings for most of the season, placing in the 89th percentile or above in xERA, hard-hit rate, xBA and xSLG. He has allowed one or fewer earned runs in four of his six starts.

Milwaukee’s bullpen had some hiccups against the Phillies, and they are slumping as a team right now with six straight losses. Washington’s relief corps remains the weaker of the two, however, with only five teams owning a higher relief ERA.

This is a matchup which should help the Brewers get back to winning ways. It’s only their recent struggles which have got them at a price as long as 4/6. This Nationals team is on a 4-8 run of their own and is coming off suffering its own sweep against the Marlins.

Ashby might not go deep into this game, but his track record and the matchup with this Nationals offence suggests he can be very effective. Milwaukee’s offence is unlikely to blow Fedde out of the game, yet they can do enough to take a lead and trust the bullpen to maintain it.

• Selection: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
• Best Odds: 1.67 (Boyle Sports)
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 01:00 pm June 10th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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