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baseball | Friday, June 24, 2022 9:52 AM (Revised at: Friday, June 24, 2022 9:54 AM)

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Friday June 24th

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Friday June 24th
Contributor: Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

The Miami Marlins host the New York Mets on Friday night in the first of their three-game weekend series. New York owns a 3-1 record against the Marlins so far in 2022 with all four games being played over last weekend. The Mets lost twice to the Astros since then, however, while Miami is coming off a three-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies.

MLB Best Bet: June 24th

  •   Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Miami to Win (OT Incl)

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Best Bet

Despite the road team having 13 more wins on the board, the Marlins are favoured here. That’s because Sandy Alcantara is on the mound – Alcantara is a Cy Young frontrunner at the moment and should be the favourite to start the All-Star game in a few weeks’ time. Miami is 9-5 in Alcantara’s starts this season; he matches up with Taijuan Walker.

Walker has been curiously effective this season. His ERA is 2.88 despite an xERA of 3.83 and just an 18.1% strikeout rate. His 44.7% hard-hit rate allowed is by far the worst of his career and ranks well below league average, too. Walker has benefited from some decent defence behind him (two Outs Above Average on the season), but he’s also ridden some luck thus far.

These are two potent offences against right-handers. New York owns a 116 wRC+ in 2022. Miami’s offence might rank around average for the year, but that is all down to their woeful performance against lefties. Walker pitched 6.2 innings for just two hits against Miami in his last start, though this isn’t a great matchup for the former Mariner. They are a 112 wRC+ team when facing righties, and they’re one of the top 10 fastball-hitting teams in the league. Walker throws his four-seamer and sinker almost 40% of the time – the four-seamer carries a .368 xwOBA.

This is a tricky contest for Alcantara, too. He rides a power fastball and change, which are pitches the Mets do a lot of damage against. Miami gets length from their ace, though, and that’s crucial given their bullpen vulnerabilities. Alcantara pitched eight innings of two-run ball against the Mets in his last start, leaving him with a 1.14 ERA in June.

When it’s righty against righty, these teams are a much closer matchup than their records across the whole season might indicate. Miami’s offence has quietly been among the best in the sport when facing pitchers like Walker despite his strong performance a few days ago.

The Marlins have wasted a few gems from Alcantara this season, but we’re backing Miami to get this series started with a win behind their ace. After scoring 19 across three games against Colorado, we fancy the Marlins offence to do enough off Walker to put themselves in a position to win. Alcantara should go seven or eight again facing a Mets offence which often attacks early in counts.

  • Selection: Miami Marlins Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.76 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 12:00 pm June 24th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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