MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Friday June 3rd

The San Francisco Giants are in Miami for the second of their four-game set with the Marlins on Friday night. Miami won the series opener 3-0 on the back of a majestic performance from Sandy Alcantara, but they are underdogs in the second game. The Giants own a 27-23 record on the season, while the Marlins are just 20-28.

MLB Best Bet: June 3rd

• Miami vs San Francisco: San Francisco to win

Odds as of 3pmpm June 3rd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Miami vs San Francisco Best Bet

Friday,  June 3rd,11:40pm (UK time)

Alex Cobb is on the bump for the Giants. The former Ray has been the unluckiest pitcher in the sport this season, with a 3.70 difference between his ERA and expected ERA. Part of this can be attributed to poor Giants defence, but Cobb has also seen misfortune with batted balls. Relying heavily on his sinker and splitter, he’s got a chase rate which ranks in the 96th percentile and sits in the 90th percentile in hard hit rate. Simply put, Cobb is missing a lot of bats, and not giving up hard contact.

It’s Elieser Hernandez getting the start for the Marlins, and the picture is considerably uglier. Hernandez has a 5.77 ERA and his expected number isn’t much better, residing in the 28th percentile. The Giants have been missing some of their better left-handed bats for much of this season, yet they still place above average when it comes to production against right handers. This offence was shutdown by Alcantara on Thursday night, but they had been lively before that, scoring 23 runs across the four previous contests.

The Marlins have been effective when facing righties this season, with the third-highest team wRC+ in such matchups. They have done a good job at limiting strikeouts, too, which should force Cobb’s pitch count upwards, and perhaps get to the inconsistent Giants bullpen. This is an offence which was explosive against the Rockies — facing Cobb is a much sterner task.

Miami might have won two of three, but they are on a 4-9 run when we look further back. The Giants are the better of the two teams, and it’s a surprise to see their moneyline price as long as 8/11 given how well Cobb has pitched in 2022. San Francisco has made a habit of improving pitchers, and he’s just the latest example to dominate, even if the results have not been there.

There’s not a great deal to choose between the two relief corps at this point. Both have had their issues, but both have the arms to shut a game down late on. This matchup ultimately comes down to two good offences and comparable bullpens. It’s all about the starters to make our moneyline pick here – it’s straight-forward to back Cobb over Hernandez, even if the Marlins pitcher has a better ERA thus far.

We’re happy putting solid stakes behind the Giants moneyline, but some bettors could be tempted to back Gabe Kapler’s team to be winning after five given the starting pitching disparity.

•       Selection: San Francisco Giants moneyline
•       Best Odds: 1.73 (Boyle Sports)
•       Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 3pm June 3rd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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