MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Monday July 4th

Coming off a low-scoring series win over the Baltimore Orioles, the Minnesota Twins begin a three-game set with the Chicago White Sox on July 4th. Minnesota is slight underdogs for the game, despite having a 4.5-game lead over the ChiSox in the American League Central. Chicago impressed in a sweep of the Giants at the weekend but lost all three when they met Minnesota earlier in the year.

MLB Best Bet: July  4th

•  Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins: Minnesota Twins to Win (OT incl)

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Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Best Bet

Mon, Jul 4. 01:10 (UK time)

Former Angel Dylan Bundy matches up with ex-Giant Johnny Cueto in the series opener. Cueto’s 3.33 ERA is almost 1.4 runs lower than that of Bundy. This only tells part of the story, however.

Cueto’s xERA is up at 4.20, over 0.4 higher than Bundy’s mark. Ultimately, the underlying numbers for both pitchers paint a relatively even starting matchup on Monday night. This is reflected by FIP, too. Cueto (4.15) is only marginally ahead of Bundy (4.32), largely because neither pitcher is racking up many strikeouts and both have been bitten by the long ball on occasion.

Bundy has given up just four earned runs across his last three starts. Cueto has allowed six over his last two. Some bettors might be concerned about the Twins’ offence after scoring 11 over the last three games, but it’s reasonable to expect this group to get firing again sooner rather than later. Minnesota has quietly been one of the best offences in the league this season. Plus, they are second in hard-hit rate against righties since the end of May and have a 117 wRC+ over that period.

Chicago’s offence has shown signs of improvement, yet they are down at just a 106 wRC+. Only four teams are walking less frequently when facing right-handers over the last month, too, which could enable Bundy to get rolling. He’s up in the 91st percentile in walk rate.

A series sweep of San Francisco will have boosted the confidence of the White Sox, but this is still a team below .500, and that’s even when they are overachieving their Pythagorean record. Their season-long numbers are average or below across the board.

Minnesota, in contrast, is a truly potent offence, and their knack for driving the ball poses a real threat to Cueto, who comes in at comfortably below average in hard-hit rate and strikeout frequency. Your best hope of keeping the Twins quiet is racking up strikeouts – Cueto isn’t going to do that.

Chicago might be at home, but we still don’t like their chances in this contest. Bundy has been better than the traditional numbers indicate. Pair that with an explosive Twins offence, and we feel good backing the Twins to win this one as dogs.

• Selection: Minnesota Twins Moneyline
• Best Odds: 2.10 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 12:30 pm July 4th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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