MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, June 13h

With their winning streak brutally ended by the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies face the Miami Marlins on Monday night. Miami is just one game behind the Phils in the loss column, having won five of its last six. The Marlins are just 12-17 on the road in 2022, but they are coming off an impressive series win in Houston.

MLB Best Bet: June 13th

• Philadelphia vs Miami: Marlins to Win (OT Incl)

Odds as of 1:00 pm June 13th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Philadelphia vs Miami Best Bet

This should be an epic pitching duel. Miami is slight underdogs despite having Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara on the mound, while Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies. Miami has an 8-4 record in Alcantara starts this season, and he hasn’t given up more than one earned run in his last six outings.

Philadelphia has won just four of Nola’s 12 starts. He pitched eight shutout innings against the Milwaukee Brewers last time out, but he’s just one outing removed from a five-run shelling at the hands of the Giants. Much like last season, Nola has been unfortunate to give up as many runs as he has. His ERA was 1.31 higher than his xERA in 2021, and that number is up at 0.83 in 2022. Part of this is batted ball misfortune, some of it is the porous defence of the Phils.

Still, Alcantara has the better numbers. He’s in the top seven percent by xERA, and has a real knack for going deep into games. His last start of fewer than seven innings pitched was back on May 6th. The right hander faced the Phillies in April, giving up only two earned runs in 6.1 frames.

Despite the big names in the Philadelphia line up, their production against right handers is only just above league average. Miami is up at 115 wRC+ in such matchups. The Marlins offence has been on a good run of late, scoring four or more runs in 12 of the last 17.

Of course, the Phils doing damage, even against the Brewers, but Monday’s game will be a test of this group after their winning streak came to an end with a 13-1 loss to Arizona at the weekend.

The bullpens both grade out around average. Once again, Philadelphia has the names on its side, and benefited from some improved performances during their winning streak, yet there is considerable volatility in this ‘pen.

Miami’s bullpen has been much-improved, too. They rank eighth in bullpen FIP since the start of May. With Alcantara on the mound, Don Mattingly will be able go straight to his backend guys.

These teams are a closer matchup than the hype around the Phillies would suggest. Miami has been overshadowed by its divisional rivals over the last week or so, but they have been playing good baseball and their ace is on the mound on Monday night. At these odds, there’s great value backing the Marlins to pick up their 13th road win of the season.

• Selection: Miami Marlins Moneyline
• Best Odds: 6/5 (William Hill)
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 01:00 pm June 13th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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