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baseball | Monday, June 20, 2022 12:35 PM

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Monday June 20th

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Monday June 20th
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MLB Moneyline Best Bet June 20th

The Milwaukee Brewers host the St Louis Cardinals on June 20th for the first of their four-game set. The two teams are battling it out at the top of the National League Central, and this is their ninth matchup of the 2022 season with each team taking four wins apiece thus far. St Louis is slight underdogs for this contest.

MLB Best Bet June 20th

  • Milwaukee vs St Louis: St Louis Cardinals to win

MILWAUKEE vs ST LOUIS BEST BET

Reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is on the mound for the home team. Burnes matches up with veteran Miles Mikolas, who is having a stellar 2022 campaign. This is a true pitchers’ duel – Mikolas has the 12th-lowest ERA in the Majors since the start of May, just two spots behind the dominant Burnes.

The 2.62 ERA on the year suggests a bit of good fortune for Mikolas, given that his xERA is up at 3.26. This is also the result of great infield defence behind him, however, and Mikolas has done well at limiting walks. He’s in the 87th percentile in walk rate and 80th percentile in hard hit rate. Having been just one out away from a no-no against the Pirates last time out, Mikolas has given up just two earned runs and four hits over his last two starts, while hurling 16.2 frames. The Brewers have had success against him this year, but Mikolas is pitching as well as he ever has.

Burnes has been elite once again, pitching to an xERA of under three and striking out over 30% of hitters. He’s not quite the force of last season, though, with hitters making considerably more hard contact. The Bakersfield native is only just above average in hard hit rate.

While Milwaukee’s ace pitched seven scoreless, two-hit innings against the Cardinals just last month, he hasn’t been as tough to face in June. Burnes owns an ERA north of five in 14 frames across three starts this month.

This Cardinals offence is also surging. They have a 114 wRC+ over the last month. They have also scored 29 runs over their last five games. It’s only three wins across that spell, but that can largely be put down to the pitching rather than run scoring. Paul Goldschmidt is arguably the hottest hitter in the sport right now, and he’s ably supported by a deep lineup.

Milwaukee’s offence is miles behind. While they got going against the Reds, matching up with Mikolas is an altogether sterner task. The Brewers have a team 95 wRC+ since May 20th. They are right around league average against right-handers for the season, and only six teams strike out more frequently.

We’re riding with the hot arm of Mikolas in this contest. Burnes’ starts are often going to see Milwaukee favoured, but this St Louis offence is doing damage on a nightly basis at the moment, and we think they can generate enough runs even against the 2021 Cy Young winner.

  • Selection: Cardinals Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 8/5 (Boyle Sports)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 1:00 pm June 20th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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