MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Monday June 6th

The Houston Astros start their three-game set with the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on June 6th. Houston has stormed off in the American League West with a 35-19 record, while it has been an underwhelming start to the campaign for Seattle, with just 24 wins from their first 54 games. Houston is favoured for Monday’s encounter, and has won five of its nine games against the Mariners so far in 2022.
MLB Best Bet: June 6th

• Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners: Astros to Win (OT Incl)

Odds as of 3:30 pm June 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Best Bet

The Mariners are coming off a tight-fought series win over the Texas Rangers. All three games were decided by a single run. Big-money offseason acquisition Robbie Ray is on the bump for Seattle – this should be a very winnable game for them, but Ray has been a far cry from the pitcher we saw in Toronto in 2021. The veteran southpaw has regressed to closer to the production we witnessed during his years with the Diamondbacks.

A 2.84 ERA with a 3.60 xERA in 2021 has been replaced by 4.93 and 4.02. His strikeout rate has plummeted from over 32% to a shade above 27%. Walks have long been an issue for Ray, and while he’s still posting the second-lowest mark of his career, 8.8% of hitters are receiving a free pass, which is considerably higher than what he posted in 2021.

The Astros are a disciplined, high-contact offence. They are fifth in walk rate against lefties, and only three teams strike out less often in such matchups. The big lefty bats of Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are not particularly splitty. Since the start of May, Ray has given up four or more earned runs in five of his seven starts. Houston is going to do some damage early in this game.

In contrast to Ray’s struggles, the Astros have the impressive Cristian Javier on the hill. Javier has a 2.42 ERA on the season, which would rank in the top 15 among qualified starters if he’d pitched enough innings. He’s been a shade fortunate as the 2.93 xERA suggests, but there’s no denying that Javier has been dominant with his fastball and slider combination.

Sitting in the 91st percentile in strikeout rate, Javier excels at missing bats. He pitched 5.1 scoreless innings, giving up just two hits, against the Mariners last month. That was far from an anomaly, too, as he’s conceded two or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts.

Seattle is one of the best offences in the Majors against right-handed pitching, but we can’t bet against Javier with how he’s been throwing the ball in 2022. This potent Houston offence continues to make life very difficult for pitchers even after losing Carlos Correa and George Springer.

Houston also has the far superior bullpen, which should make it a straightforward path to convert a strong Javier start into yet another win on Monday night in Texas.

• Selection: Houston Astros Moneyline
• Best Odds: 1.62 (Unibet)
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 03:30 pm June 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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