MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday July 14th

The Milwaukee Brewers are in San Francisco to start their four-game series with the Giants on Thursday night.

Milwaukee is coming off series losses to Chicago and Pittsburgh and a midweek split with the Minnesota Twins, leaving them at 49-40. San Francisco looks to have broken out of a recent slump with four wins from five games, including a walk-off win over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: July 14th

• San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers: San Francisco Giants to Win (OT Incl)

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San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet

Fri, Jul 15. 02:45 (UK time)

This is a meeting of two of the National League’s premier arms in Carlos Rodon and Corbin Burnes. Their season-long numbers are almost identical, with Rodon’s xERA just 0.02 higher than Burnes’. Rodon has clocked 100 innings to 106.1 of Burnes and has a higher WHIP at 1.06 compared to Burnes’ mark of under 1.00.

Milwaukee’s ace has given up just one earned run and four hits in 13 innings this month, but Rodon has been every bit as impressive. The former White Sox lefty is coming off a dominant complete game against San Diego and ranks second in the Majors in FIP since June 11th at 1.45. Burnes is at 2.84 FIP and 3.01 xFIP over the same period, while Rodon’s xFIP is 2.76. There’s little to choose between them through strikeout rate or walks.

Perhaps Rodon has been marginally better than Burnes of late, but there’s not much in it.

One thing with these teams is clear, though. San Francisco’s offence is a better all-around group than the Brewers, having broken out of its slumber. Milwaukee, meanwhile, are still desperately searching for the production to complement their arms. Keston Hiura being optioned hasn’t helped the Brew Crew in that cause.

The Brewers have a measly 93 wRC+ against lefties this season. Rodon is arguably the best southpaw in the game right now, and Gabe Kapler has been more open to allowing him to go deep into games of late. There’s no guarantee Milwaukee will get a look at San Francisco’s middle relief.

The Giants are only at 103 wRC+ against right-handers this season, but their approach might make them trickier than that figure suggests. San Francisco is among the league leaders in pitches per plate appearance. Only the Yankees draw more walks against righties. Allowing free passes is Burnes’ greatest weakness – he allowed four bases on balls two starts ago. The Giants’ approach at the plate should force Burnes’ pitch count up and get him out of the game before Rodon.

San Francisco can have confidence if it faces the Milwaukee bullpen. The Brewers’ relief corps hasn’t been at its shutdown best recently. On the other side of that matchup, there have been signs of improvement from the Giants ‘pen, highlighted by their bullpen game win on Wednesday.

This is a tantalising pitching duel between two of the most entertaining starters in the Majors. It’s no surprise to see that bookies can barely choose between them, but we like the value on the Giants to make it three wins in a row.

• Selection: San Francisco Giants Moneyline
• Best Odds: 11/10 (Boyle Sports)
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 12:00 pm July 14th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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