MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday July 7th

The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants on Thursday night for the first of their four-game set at Petco Park. Both teams have been ice-cold of late, with the Padres winning just three of their last nine and the Giants on a 4-12 run. San Francisco ended a six-game losing streak on Wednesday night with a win over Arizona.

MLB Best Bet: July 7th

• San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: San Diego Padres to win

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San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Best Bet

Fri, Jul 08. 02:40 (UK time)

It’s an ace-off in southern California with probable All-Star Logan Webb matching up with Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove. Musgrove is seventh in fWAR among National League pitchers, just one spot ahead of Webb. While San Diego’s Thursday starter has an ERA almost a run better than Webb’s mark, San Francisco’s young star has the advantage in FIP and is less than 0.5 of a run behind by xERA.

Both pitchers come into this game off some tricky outings. Musgrove allowed six earned runs to the Phillies then three to the Dodgers. Webb gave up six hits and three runs when facing the Chicago White Sox in the last time through the Giants’ rotation. The season-long numbers remain stellar for both pitchers, however, and it’s fair to assume that these are minor bumps in the road rather than a meaningful downturn. San Francisco is still 10-6 in Webb’s starts, while the Padres have won 11 of the 14 games Musgrove has been on the mound for.

With little between the starters, it’s the offences which show the real difference between the teams of late. The Giants have a team mark of 97 wRC+ against right handers since the end of May, putting them in the bottom 11 in the Majors. They are still working a good amount of walks, but that’s not going to be easy when facing Musgrove, who has just a 5.3% walk rate. In contrast, San Diego is the 10th best offence in the league when facing righties over the same period.

The Friars have only scored 12 runs in their last six games. Such regression was expected, having ranked in the bottom 10 in team xwOBA all year. Still, this offence is slightly better than their struggles against the Dodgers and Mariners suggest. Manny Machado brings the starpower, and he was ably supported by Nomar Mazara, Luke Voit, Jake Cronenworth and Jorge Alfaro in June. Some of those bats have cooled off more recently, yet we feel better about the Padres offence against Webb than the Giants offence against Musgrove.

Even if Webb puts San Francisco in position to win, it’s difficult to have any confidence in their bullpen closing it out. Camilo Doval nearly blew it after a ninth-inning rally on Wednesday. Gabe Kapler has not been able to rely on his back-end arms in the same way as last year.

It’s always difficult to pick between two slumping teams, but we’ve got to lean towards the Padres here. They own a 4-2 record against the Giants so far this season, and with this likely to be a low-scoring game, it’s worth noting that San Francisco is just 10-16 in one-run contests this term.

• Selection: San Diego Padres Moneyline
• Best Odds: 1.78 (GGbet)
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 12:00 pm July 7th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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