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baseball | Thursday, June 23, 2022 12:44 PM

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday June 23rd

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday June 23rd
Contributor: Cal Sport Media / Alamy Stock Photo

Coming off a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, the San Diego Padres begin their weekend series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night. San Diego is betting favourites for the encounter despite Manny Machado’s ankle injury and Fernando Tatis Jr’s sustained absence.
The Phils have lost three in a row, including a six-run loss to the Washington Nationals and a 7-0 defeat to the Texas Rangers.

MLB Best Bet: June 23rd

  • San Diego vs Philadelphia: San Diego to Win (OT Incl)

San Diego vs Philadelphia Best Bet

Fri, Jun 25. 02:40 (UK time)

Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove gets the ball for the Padres, while Ranger Suarez is on the bump for the Phils. This is a pitching matchup which heavily favours the Friars on the surface, with Musgrove second to only Tony Gonsolin in ERA in 2022. Suarez, meanwhile, has an ERA and xERA well into the fours and ranks well below league average when it comes to recording strikeouts and walking hitters.

Suarez has generally done well at limiting hard contact, yet he is allowing hitters to reach via the base on balls in over 11% of plate appearances. San Diego is top 10 in drawing walks against southpaws this season. Suarez isn’t fooling many hitters either – he’s 9th percentile in whiff rate and 25th percentile in strikeout rate. The Padres are top 10 in avoiding strikeouts against lefties, too. The San Diego offence is obviously missing its two best bats, but they are still generating enough run support for an ace like Musgrove (it’s 28 runs scored over the last six for Bob Melvin’s team).

Musgrove has been as effective as his ERA suggests. He’s in the 92nd percentile in xERA, riding a slider which is among the best pitches in the sport. The Phillies are a shade below average when it comes to production against sliders in 2022. Musgrove has been cruising through lineups over the last few weeks, allowing just three runs over his last five starts.

Neither of these teams can have complete confidence in their bullpen this season. Philadelphia has taken Corey Knebel out of the closer role which has changed the dynamic to a degree, but there’s still some serious volatility in that group. San Diego can feel comfortable enough with their back-end guys if Musgrove goes deep – Taylor Rogers leads MLB in saves and Luis Garcia has impressed to the tune of a 2.33 FIP.

We can’t go against the Padres with Musgrove on the mound. They are 11-1 in his starts this season. The offence is lacking in Machado’s absence, but they are still a relatively tricky matchup for Suarez, who hasn’t exactly been a dominant guy in 2022. It’s a short price on the Moneyline, yet there’s still value backing the home team to start this series off with a win.

  • Selection: San Diego Padres Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.71 (Marathonbet)
  • Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 3:00 pm June 23rd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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