MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday June 30th

The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees for a one-off game on Thursday night after the two teams split a four-game set in the Big Apple last week. Houston rode a gem from Justin Verlander to beat the Mets on Wednesday, while the Yankees saw off the Oakland Athletics with a 5-3 victory. They are the clear best two teams in the American League, but New York has a commanding seven-game advantage in the loss column.

MLB Best Bet: June 30th

• Houston Astros vs New York Yankees: New York Yankees to Win (OT Incl)

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Best Bet

Thu, Jun 30th. 23:10 (UK time)

The Yankees are favoured for Thursday’s game with Luis Severino taking the ball against Luis Garcia of the Astros. Garcia has had a difficult June, owning a 4.84 ERA, and gave up seven baserunners in five innings when he faced the Mets a few days ago. He’s conceded at least two runs in each of his last four starts. Not only has Garcia not been at his best of late, but the Astros are also expected to be without MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez after the slugger was involved in a scary collision with Jeremy Pena on Wednesday.

It seems remarkable to say that Severino has underperformed a smidge when everything has gone right for the Yankees in 2022. His 3.38 ERA is hardly disappointing, yet a 2.67 xERA suggests he could have even better results based on the quality of contact allowed and solid marks in strikeout and walk categories. He gave up three earned against the Astros last week and allowed five to the Jays in the start prior. Severino has been dominant more often than not in 2022, however, with six starts of one or no runs allowed.

For all the noise about the Yankees’ Aaron Judge-led offence, and the various records being broken, these two teams are relatively even at the plate. New York has a 117 wRC+ against righties, compared with 115 from Houston. Alvarez’s absence is a very real factor in this matchup, though, and leaves a substantial hole in the lineup, particularly with Yuli Gurriel still not at his best and Michael Brantley on the injured list.

The Yankees offence has the advantage as it stands. Severino has had a couple of substandard starts, but we’ve still got faith in him to give the Bronx Bombers a strong five or six innings. Both bullpens are among the elite – the team with a lead after six is likely to win the game.

These ballclubs are well-matched, meaning we are going to pretty reasonable odds for most games between them. The Yankees are only slightly shorter than Evens, which feels like a good value wager with Alvarez’s injury and Severino’s impressive underlying numbers in 2022.

• Selection: New York Yankees Moneyline
• Best Odds: 1.85 (BetFair)
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 12:20 am June 30th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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