MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday July 12th

The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres for the second of their-four game set at Coors Field on Tuesday night. San Diego won the series opener thanks to a three-run rally in the eighth inning, though the Friars have still only won three of their eight meetings with the Rox in 2022. Colorado also won 11 of their 19 matchups last year.

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: July 12th

• Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: San Diego Padres to win

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Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Best Bet

Wed, Jul 13. 01:40 (UK time)

The Rockies, though, come into this game on an 8-12 run. San Diego hasn’t been playing its best baseball of late either, but their series split with the Giants and win on Monday puts them at three wins across their last five games. It’s a pitching matchup which heavily favours the road team too, with Mike Clevinger going up against struggling southpaw Austin Gomber.

Clevinger has picked up where he left off pre-injury, owning a 3.34 ERA and a 3.49 xERA. An increase in slider usage has brought positive results for the former Cleveland starter. He gave up four earned, including two long balls, to Seattle last time out, yet he allowed just one run over 10 innings in his two previous starts.

Gomber has pitched slightly better than his 6.46 ERA may suggest. He’s still in just the 15th percentile in xERA, however, rarely striking out hitters, and sitting below average in barrels allowed. That’s not exactly a successful formula in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field – Gomber has given up 18 earned runs in his last three home starts.

San Diego is a bottom six offence against lefties since the start of last month, but their bats warmed up a bit on Monday with three bombs, 10 hits and five walks.

The Rockies offence isn’t exactly going to blow Clevinger away either, with an average of just 3.25 runs scored over their last eight games. Only the Tigers, Angels and Athletics have a lower wRC+ since the start of June.

If the first half of the game is leaning heavily towards San Diego with Clevinger against Gomber, it doesn’t get much better for the home team once the starters depart. The Padres have the ninth-best reliever xFIP over the last six weeks. Colorado’s bullpen does not match up well – they faltered on Monday, and rank down in 26th by the same metric over that period.

San Diego hasn’t been at its best of late, dropping plenty of games they will feel they could have won. Their record against the Rockies over the last couple of years isn’t great. Yet, we can’t help but like the Padres at this price. Clevinger is back to his best in 2022, and we saw enough life from the Friars’ offence on Monday to suggest they can put up a few runs against Gomber.

• Selection: San Diego Padres Moneyline
• Best Odds: 1.73 (Paddy Power)
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 11am July 12th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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