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baseball | Tuesday, July 5, 2022 10:34 AM

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday July 5th

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday July 5th
Contributor: Cal Sport Media / Alamy Stock Photo

The Miami Marlins come into a two-game series against the Los Angeles Angels off another late-game win over the Washington Nationals. Miami is betting favourites for the first of the two games as they look to extend their five-game winning run. Los Angeles is in a 4-8 spell, falling to fourth in the American League West.

MLB Best Bet: July 5th

  • Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels: Miami Marlins to Win (OT included)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels Best Bet

Tue, Jul 05. 23:40 (UK time)

Cy Young frontrunner Sandy Alcantara is on the mound for Miami, matching up with Noah Syndergaard. Alcantara has been phenomenal all year – he’s going deep into games, pitching to a 1.95 ERA and a 2.67 xERA. He’s thrown 11 more innings than anyone else with only Carlos Rodon and Kevin Gausman amassing more fWAR in 2022 among pitchers. It’s been a blip of sorts lately for Alcantara, but he’s still allowed just 10 earned runs across his last four outings.

The Angels are a league-average offence on the season with a 99 wRC+. They are down at 75 wRC+ since the end of May, however, which is the joint-worst mark in the league. Los Angeles has struggled to make contact against righties over that spell – their 29.6% strikeout rate is the worst in the league by a considerable distance.

After a brutal end to May, Syndergaard posted a 3.60 ERA in June. His three earned runs allowed against the White Sox last time out was unspectacular, but a start of that nature would give the Angels a chance to win on Tuesday. He’s not the pitcher he once was, however. The former Met has mastered his control issues in 2022, but he no longer has the same strikeout stuff. He’s struck out just 17.3% of hitters this season.

Miami isn’t especially strikeout prone, nor are they going to work a lot of walks. They also have a tendency to hit the ball into the ground, which is exactly what Syndergaard is looking for. Still, the Marlins are around 10% above average in offensive production against right-handers since the end of May. They have a decent groove offensively, which has powered their push towards the wildcard race.

Early in the season, the Angels were a long way clear of the Marlins. Across the last few weeks, though, the Angels have been in an almighty demise while Miami has quietly got its act together. Los Angeles is 13-31 since May 15th. Miami is 23-21 over that same period.

Los Angeles still has the bigger names, and arguably the two best players in the sport in Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Miami has the better all-around roster, led by their ace in Alcantara. It will take something special from Syndergaard to stop Miami from winning on Tuesday night. We’re surprised that the moneyline price wasn’t shorter for the home team.

  • Selection: Miami Marlins Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.73  (SkyBet)
  • Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 12:30 pm July 5th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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