MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday June 21st

The Texas Rangers host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night for the first of a short two-game series. This comes following the Rangers suffering consecutive losses to the lowly Detroit Tigers, while the Phils saw a five-game winning streak come to an end with a loss to the Washington Nationals on Sunday. Philadelphia is 36-32 on the season. Texas is 31-35.

MLB Best Bet: June 21st

• Texas vs Philadelphia: Texas Rangers to win

TEXAS VS PHILADELPHIA BEST BET

Former Ranger Kyle Gibson gets the ball for the Phillies on Tuesday night, matching up with one of the surprise stories of the year in the shape of veteran southpaw Martin Perez. Texas owns a 9-4 record in Perez’s starts in 2022, and he’s having by far the best year of his career with a 183 ERA+.

The 2.10 ERA is slightly misleading, as Perez is at a 3.04 xERA. This is still well above average, however, and the underlying numbers are very strong. He’s striking out more and walking fewer than ever before with a considerable uptick in his sinker usage, which has been a very effective pitch for him. Getting groundballs is a massive part of Perez’s game – this makes for a fascinating contest against a Phillies line up which excels at getting the ball in the air when facing lefties.

With a poor defence behind him, Gibson has a slightly better xERA than ERA. He’s still up at 3.73 xERA, and hovers around league average in advanced statistics. The 34-year-old is coming off eight innings of one-run ball against the Marlins, but he conceded multiple runs in his seven starts prior to that outing.

Also a big sinker guy, Gibson has his work cut out against his previous team. Only the Orioles, Dodgers and Astros hit fewer groundballs than the Rangers. Just three teams have hit more home runs over the last month. Texas lost two of four against the Tigers, but they also scored 20 runs in the series.

Both of these teams are around league average in offensive production over the last month. Perez has the slight edge of the two starters – he’s exhibited greater control than Gibson in 2022, and has generally done a better job at limiting hard contact.

The Rangers won both games when these teams faced off in Philadelphia earlier this season. While the Phils have played better baseball since then, the offence came back to earth towards the end of their series with the Nationals, and the Rangers are a difficult line up for Gibson. He relies on keeping the ball on the ground, which isn’t easy to do against a homer-hitting Texas team.

There’s value backing the impressive Perez to get the Rangers their 32nd win of the season on Tuesday night. These teams are closer than the hype around them of late suggests – the Rangers offence can generate just enough against Gibson to get the W.

• Selection: Texas Rangers Moneyline
• Best Odds: 20/21 (Boyle Sports)
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 12:00 pm June 21st, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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