MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Monday June 27th

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians begin a five-game series on Monday night. Minnesota is the division leader and favourite for the series opener after winning back-to-back games against the Colorado Rockies at the weekend. Cleveland won two of three when the teams met last week, but has now lost four in a row following a sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox.

MLB Best Bet: June 27th

• Cleveland vs Minnesota: Minnesota to Win (OT incl)

Cleveland vs Minnesota Best Bet

Sonny Gray gets the ball for the Twins. He’s been superb thus far in 2022, yet he had his worst start of the year when he took on the Guardians last week, giving up eight hits and three earned runs in just four innings. Despite that outing just a few days ago, Gray is still up in the 87th percentile in xERA. The high-spin combination of his fastball and curve has been difficult for hitters to square up all year long, and he’s facing an ice-cold Cleveland offence. The hosts have combined for just eight runs scored across their last four games.

Former top prospect Triston McKenzie is pitching for the Guardians. He’s a different pitcher this year to seasons past, striking out far fewer and walking hitters almost half as often as he did last season. He’s overperforming his xERA by almost a run, and after some good results earlier in the season, has been lit up throughout June. Minnesota scored six off McKenzie last time out thanks to three homers in four innings – that performance took his June ERA up to 5.40.

The Twins offence might not be as destructive as it was a couple of years ago, but they are still a nightmare to face, particularly for right-handers. Only four teams have a higher team wRC+ against righties. The Braves are the only team making hard contact more frequently in such matchups.

Led by MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, Cleveland also ranks in the top 10 against righties by wRC+. This is an offence which has slumped over the last few games, however, and they are unlikely to be as productive against Gray as they were last week. The former Red has been one of the better pitchers in the American League this term.

McKenzie, in contrast, is vulnerable. The Twins drive the ball often, and he’s down in the eighth percentile in barrel rate.

Minnesota has played solid baseball on the road, owning an 18-16 record. Cleveland isn’t particularly dominant at Progressive Field. With how heavily the comparison between the starters favours the road team, it’s a surprise to see them at close to Evens here. The Twins have five more wins than their division rivals on the season, and there’s value backing them to extend that lead on Monday night.

• Selection: Minnesota Twins Moneyline
• Best Odds: 1.82 (Pinnacle)
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 9:00 pm June 27th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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