MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday June 28th

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox for the second of their three-game set on Tuesday night. Toronto is just one win behind Boston in the race for second in the American League East following their 7-2 triumph in the series opener on Monday. Owning a 22-14 record at home, the Jays have been formidable north of the border this year, and has won six of its eight against this Boston team.
MLB Best Bet: June 28th

•       Toronto vs Boston: Toronto Blue Jays to Win (OT Incl)

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Toronto vs Boston Best Bet

Ross Stripling is on the hill for the Jays, matching up with Michael Wacha of the Red Sox. Wacha has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the sport this season. His xERA is 2.09 runs higher than his ERA – only 11 pitchers in the sport see a bigger gap between those two figures. Wacha is still getting results of late, with a 2.34 ERA this month, but he’s struggling to miss bats with a strikeout rate of 18.5% and a whiff rate in the 12th percentile.

His main strength has been limiting walks, yet that will not be easy against a Toronto team which is generally disciplined at the plate. The Jays are top 10 in walk rate against righties over the last month and sit top of the Majors with a 137 wRC+ in that span.

Control is Stripling’s biggest strength, too. His contact numbers are better than Wacha’s, however, with a 3.48 xERA and a hard-hit rate up in the 70th percentile in 2022. Stripling owns just a 1.16 ERA this month, and he allowed just one run in five frames against the Red Sox back in April. Spending a period as a reliever, Stripling’s versatility has been of use to the Jays. They are only 5-4 in his starts, but they have won four of his last five starts.

Boston’s offence has done enough of late, taking advantage of some weaker opponents. Kevin Gausman dominated them on Monday, however, with their only two runs coming against Shaun Anderson in a blowout. The Red Sox are right around league average in production when facing right-handers this season, and it’s no secret that their offence is massively top-heavy, making them very dependent on the star trio of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers. Martinez has cooled off after a scorching May, posting a sub-.800 OPS in June.

Traditional statistics would paint this as a matchup slightly in Boston’s favour given the results Wacha has generated. Dig a little deeper, and it becomes clear that Toronto are deserving favourites. Stripling has been a low-key success story for the Jays this term with Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun-Jin Ryu all underperforming or hurt.

We like the value on Toronto to seal a series win on Tuesday night behind a solid outing from Stripling. This explosive Jays lineup can get Wacha out of the game early and should do damage against the Red Sox’s pen.

• Selection: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
• Best Odds: 5/6 (Boyle Sports)
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 2:00 pm June 28th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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