MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday, June 7th

The New York Mets, owners of the best record in the National League, continue their California road trip with the second of their three-game set with the San Diego Padres on June 7th. The first pitch is due at 02:40 (UK time), as the Friars look to bounce back from an 11-5 loss in the series opener.

MLB Best Bet: June 7th

• San Diego vs New York: New York Mets to Win (OT Incl)

Odds as of 2:30 pm June 7th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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San Diego vs New York Best Bet

After a stellar start to the campaign, the Padres are in a bit of a rut, winning just five of their last 13. The games have generally been low-scoring – they are below average in runs per game overall, and only the Royals and Athletics have scored fewer runs per contest at home. It has been a rough first couple of months of the season for Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim and Trent Grisham. The Robinson Cano experiment did not work out.

Yu Darvish is on the mound for the home team. It’s been an intriguing season to date for the former Ranger. He ranks below league average by ERA+, yet has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, and owns a 3.47 FIP.

On the other side of this matchup, it’s Taijuan Walker for the Mets, who has had an equally puzzling campaign to date. Walker is in the bottom four percent in strikeout rate, dropping almost 10 percentage points from his career average. He’s giving up a fair bit of hard contact and has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the Bigs according to the chasm between his ERA and xERA. The Mets’ defence has been no better than average, suggesting this is an unsustainable run for Walker. He has, however, given up just seven runs in his last five starts.

Maybe Darvish is just a league-average pitcher at this stage of his career. Like Walker, his strikeouts are down, and he conceded five earned to the Cardinals in his last start. The pitchers are well-matched on the contact they’ve given up so far this year.

When it comes to the offences, it’s an altogether different story. New York has the best wRC+ against righties. San Diego is the fourth-worst offence in such matchups. The Mets are great at avoiding the strikeout against right-handers, which could force Darvish’s pitch count up, and allow them to get to San Diego’s middle relief. The Padres are 25th in bullpen wins above average.

If the numbers show Darvish and Walker to be similar pitchers, then this has to be a Mets win. New York has an elite bullpen, while San Diego’s relief corps has struggled. The gap between the teams on offence is enormous.

It was a shock to see New York at 11/10 to win this straight up. They have won nine of their last 11 and show no signs of slowing down after an impressive win against these Padres on Monday night.

• Selection: New York Mets Moneyline
• Best Odds: 2.15 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 02:30 pm June 7th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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