MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday July 6th

The St Louis Cardinals are in Atlanta on Wednesday night for the third of their four-game set. The Braves have won the opening two games of the series 6-3 and 7-1 respectively, and the defending World Series champions are comfortably favoured for Wednesday’s contest. St Louis is on a poor run, winning just five of their last 17 games. Atlanta is 25-7 since the start of June.

MLB Best Bet: July 6th

• Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals: St Louis Cardinals to Win (OT Incl)

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Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals Best Bet

Thu, Jul 07. 00:20 (UK time)

Max Fried takes the ball for the home team. Miles Mikolas is his opponent – the veteran is having the best season of his career, pitching to a 2.61 ERA and 3.37 xERA. While he wasn’t at his sharpest against the Phillies last time out, Mikolas was exceptional through his final few starts in June. He’s not a high strikeout guy, but his ability to limit walks has helped to keep run-scoring to a minimum even when hitters are making good contact.

This is a challenge for Mikolas, of course, but he should be able to work deep into the game against an Atlanta offence which ranks bottom five in walk rate since May 21st.

Fried is one of the best starters in the Majors. His ERA is marginally higher than Mikolas’, but his xERA is considerably lower, coming in at 2.81. He’s not walking hitters and sits in the 90th percentile in barrel rate allowed.

Just like Mikolas, though, this isn’t a straightforward matchup for Atlanta’s star southpaw. St Louis, led by righty sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, owns a 121 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Their 9-7 record when facing left-handed starters is slightly misleading – St Louis has an offence set up to take down lefties.

Fried has obviously been dominant in most of his starts this season, but he has his off nights. It’s not so long ago that he gave up four earned runs to the lowly Nationals. While he’s traditionally fared well against the Cards, this St Louis lineup has the talent to get to him on Wednesday night. With how Mikolas has pitched this year, it doesn’t need to be anything explosive. This is primed to be a low-scoring game – all it will take is a couple of clutch hits for the Red Birds to secure a much-needed win.

The Braves are the better team at the moment, and Fried has been even better than Mikolas. They deserve to be slight favourites, but there’s value in backing the Cardinals at this price. Given how they have hit lefties and Mikolas’ record in 2022, this price is too long on their moneyline.

• Selection: St Louis Cardinals Moneyline
• Best Odds: 2.65 (Unibet)
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 12:00 pm July 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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