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baseball | Wednesday, June 15, 2022 10:29 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, June 15, 2022 10:38 AM)

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, June 15h

MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, June 15h
Contributor: UPI / Alamy Stock Photo

The New York Mets host the Milwaukee Brewers for the second of their three-game set on Wednesday night. Citi Field witnessed a 4-0 win for the Mets on Tuesday evening, and they will be going for the series win against Corbin Burnes on June 15th. Milwaukee has slumped of late, relinquishing its lead atop the National League Central.

MLB Best Bet: June 15th

  •  New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers: New York to Win (OT Incl)

Odds as of 1:00 pm June 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet

Thu, June 16th. 00:10 (UK time)

The Brewers were 32-18. They are now 34-29. This was never a particularly high-octane offence, but they have been especially quiet of late. In this poor run, they have scored more than five runs just twice, and their shutout on Tuesday was the seventh time since May 30th that they scored three or fewer.

Burnes is a true ace – even he has stuttered of late, conceding eight runs (six earned) over his last two starts. It doesn’t get any easier against a Mets offence which is second in the league in wRC+ against right-handers over the last month. Burnes remains a strikeout monster, but the Mets will make him work. Only five teams have struck out less often against righties since May 14th.

The Mets not only have good leftie bats to take on Burnes, but they also have the added bonus of most of their right-handers being very comfortable against righties. He has pitched just eight innings across his last two starts. It would be a surprise if Burnes pitched more than five frames on Wednesday night, exposing a Brewers bullpen which hasn’t been at its best of late.

Southpaw David Peterson is on the mound for the Mets. Like Burnes, Peterson has not gone deep in his last two games, being pulled before the fifth inning against both the Dodgers and Angels. He has generally been solid for New York, however, filling in at the back of the rotation with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on the shelf.

Peterson is around average in expected ERA. The walks are a problem at times (13th percentile in BB%), but plate discipline hasn’t exactly been a strength for Milwaukee of late, with just one walk over their last two games. They are almost exactly league average when it comes to drawing walks against lefties in 2022.

This isn’t a good matchup for the Brewers. They have a wRC+ of 80 against lefties over the last month, which is the second-worst in the league.

Milwaukee is always likely to be favoured with Burnes on the mound. He hasn’t been at his best of late, though, and the Mets have a good chance at keeping the Brewers’ offence limited to only a few runs with Peterson taking the ball. The bullpens are relatively well-matched, and they could be the decisive factor with neither pitcher expected to go deep into the game.

With how Milwaukee has played of late, there’s value backing at the Mets here. We can see their offence doing more damage against Burnes than the Brewers can muster off a lefty.

  • Selection: New York Mets Moneyline
  • Best Odds:  2.09 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 01:00 pm June 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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